RADIO
Monday night didn't go as planned as the Warriors won by only two points, the Suns dropped their game to a pesky Clippers team without Paul George, and the Nuggets still managed to go over their total even in a blowout victory. An 0-3 night hurts the season record a bit, but if we take out the parlays and teasers, I'm still hovering right around .500 so I can't complain too much about that.
We have an 11-game slate tonight in the association and a lot of player news that is likely to change between now and 7 PM. Remember to continue to keep checking totals and spreads throughout the day as these lines move (sometimes quite a lot) during the course of the day, especially if players are ruled in or out. And compare books to find the best odds or lines! I primarily use DK or FD sportsbooks, but I know a lot of bettors are using a whole bunch of different books.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, December 15th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 46-54
- Against the Spread 25-18
- Over/Under 16-18
- Teasers/Parlays 5-18
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays, too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Indiana Pacers (-2) @ Milwaukee Bucks (217 total)
The Pacers almost pulled off the upset of the Warriors on Monday but ended up losing by two points in a game that was back and forth all night. They did cover, however, which cost us a bet as I had the Warriors in that one. There's no doubt that Indiana is playing at a higher level right now than earlier this season, and I could see why they would be favored in this game since Milwaukee is going to be without Giannis tonight and Khris Middleton is questionable.
My research this morning actually showed that Milwaukee has been pretty solid without Giannis so far this season with only one bad loss to Toronto in a game that he missed a few weeks ago. If Middleton is in, I feel good about taking the Bucks at home with the points. This team hasn't had Lopez all season and has been without one of Jrue, Middleton, or Giannis in a large chunk of their games this season. It's forced a lot of their role players into bigger minutes and it's also led to the development of guys like Pat Connaughton and Bobby Portis who have been thriving this season.
I look for big games from Holiday, Middleton, and Portis in this one and we should also see the debut of Donte DiVincenzo - who was a starter and big contributor last season for the champs. It's a mix of skepticism about if Indiana is legit and confidence in the champs rallying together without their star that puts me on the Bucks tonight. I'm probably going to wait on another update on Middleton before making my final bet, but if he's in I like the Bucks to win. If he's out, I might see if the line moves a bit and try to grab the Bucks with another point or two in their favor.
The Pick: Bucks +2 (-110 DK Sportsbook) and/or Bucks ML (+110 DK Sportsbook)
Memphis Grizzlies (-3) @ Portland Trail Blazers (218.5 total)
Don't look now but the Grizzlies are streaking! They're 9-1 since Ja Morant went down with an injury around Thanksgiving time and they're playing some phenomenal defense while getting contributions from many different guys in their very deep rotation.
The Blazers are trending in the opposite direction. They got Damian Lillard back from a multi-game absence but are now without their other star guard C.J. McCollum for what looks like an extended period of time. This team has been pretty bad when one of their top guards is out and they're on a back-to-back here after dropping last night's contest to the Suns.
The Grizzlies are now the fourth-best team in the league ATS at 17-11. I have Memphis projected to win big, based on their improved play of late and I have to ding the Blazers a few points without C.J. and on no rest. I feel really good about the Grizzlies laying only three points, I think they win this one pretty easily tonight.
The Pick: Grizzlies -3 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Charlotte Hornets (+3.5) @ San Antonio Spurs (227 total)
It's been a bit of a running joke that you just bet the over in Hornets games this season and win money, but the reality is that 17 of their 29 games have gone over their totals - and those totals have been pretty high totals lately as Vegas has been setting them in the high 220s to try to entice people to take the under.
While I was off the over against Dallas in their last game due to Dallas being without Luka Doncic, I am back on the over here. Charlotte is slowly getting healthier and now only missing Ish Smith and LaMelo Ball in this one (as long as some of the other questionable guys like Plumlee and Washington play). San Antonio should have their full complement of players and they've been a good offensive club this season, too. They're hitting the over in 54% of their games and so this one sets up as a potential shootout with a fast projected pace and a great environment for offenses.
I like it to go over 230 and remain pretty close, which is what we love for DFS. Don't hesitate to grab it even if it moves up a few points today.
The Pick: OVER 227 (good up to 229.5) -110 DK Sportsbook
New Orleans Pelicans (-3.5) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (211.5 total)
This game could be ugly and features two of the worst teams in the Western Conference. Both of these teams have been pretty abysmal on offense and this game has a fairly neutral pace. I don't love betting the under on a game that already has one of the lower totals on the board, but the model and the trends all line up here.
With OKC going under 61% of the time and New Orleans at 62% of the time, the odds are in our favor here that these teams fail to hit this total. After showing a little life, the Thunder have scored 95 and 84 points in their last two games while was held to 97 by the Spurs in their last game. These teams are not good and are incredibly inefficient on offense. Grab the under and root for a lot of bricks and turnovers!
The Pick: UNDER 211.5 (good down to 210) -110 DK Sportsbook
Denver-Utah-Cleveland-Memphis Moneyline Parlay (+291 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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