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The 49ers offense is known for having one of the best rushing attacks in the entire NFL. A rushing system so strong, head coach Kyle Shanahan has been able to plug and play just about anyone and get solid production out of them. They boast an excellent offensive line and a scheme that is incredibly fantasy-friendly for running backs.
This season, after the early injury to starter Raheem Mostert, it wasn't third-round rookie Trey Sermon who took over, it was fifth-round rookie, Elijah Mitchell who got the call. At that time, Jeff Wilson Jr. was still on IR dealing with a knee injury. Mitchell burst onto the scene right away and he's been one of the biggest rookie surprises this season.
Mitchell missed Week 14 due to a knee injury and a concussion, which led to Wilson getting his second spot-start for San Francisco. With that in mind, how should fantasy managers be handling Wilson in advance of the first week of the fantasy football playoffs?
Is Jeff Wilson Starting and Can I Trust Him?
The quick and easy answer is no. Even if Mitchell is ruled out, it will be incredibly hard for fantasy managers to trust Jeff Wilson after his last two spot starts. Wilson recently received two chances at being the starter and both times fantasy managers were left disappointed.
In Week 11 against the Jaguars – who allow the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs – Wilson received 20 total touches and yet only managed to put up 6.3 half-PPR points. Last week against the Bengals, Wilson once again led the 49ers' backfield. This time, in a much harder matchup, received 13 touches and finished with just 5.6 points.
So while the matchup in Week 15 against the Falcons is a positive one – they've given up the 12th-most points to running backs – it's hard to get excited about putting Wilson into your starting lineup. In Week 11, Wilson played 58% of the snaps and in Week 14, he played 59%. The biggest problem with Wilson's role is the kind of touches he's receiving. The majority of them are coming between the 20-yard lines which limits his touchdown upside. In his two spot starts, he only has four red zone touches.
His non-existent role in the passing game also limits his upside and caps his value. He received just two targets in his two opportunities to work as the starter. In Week 14 he did not receive a single target. The kinds of touches he's receiving are prone to running backs finishing with 10 points or less as they don't have any receptions propping up their point total and touchdowns are extremely difficult to come by when not receiving any red zone work.
In Week 11, Deebo Samuel received eight carries. He finished with 79 yards and a touchdown. Then in Week 14, Samuel had eight carries and finished with 37 yards and another score. The presence of Samuel makes it near impossible to trust Wilson in a starting role because he lacks the high-value touches that truly matter when it comes to fantasy scoring. He'll likely grind out 50-80 total yards, but without any receptions or goal line work, the ceiling is very limited.
If Elijah Mitchell Plays, Should I Start Jeff Wilson?
Once again, the quick and easy answer is no. Wilson first appeared in a game in Week 10 of this season. With the injuries to Mostert and whatever is going on with Trey Sermon, Wilson immediately became the No. 2 running back behind Mitchell. So what kind of value did Wilson provide fantasy managers in games with Mitchell active? The answer, almost nothing.
In Weeks 10 and 12–13, Wilson played a total of 34 snaps. Out of 196, good for a 17% snap share. In those three games where Mitchell was also active, Wilson received a measly 13 total touches or roughly 4–5 per game. In half-PPR scoring, Wilson scored a total of four points in those three games. Needless to say, Wilson has absolutely zero stand-alone value if Mitchell is healthy.
Is Jeff Wilson Jr. Worth Stashing?
This becomes more of a question based on the depth and size of your league. In 10-team leagues, Wilson does not need to be stashed. In 12-team leagues, it becomes more of a question. I can tell you in two of my 12-team, half-PPR scoring leagues, he's sitting on the waiver wire in one of them despite Mitchell missing practice Wednesday. Stashing Wilson really comes down to each team's roster construction. If you have solid running backs, Wilson likely isn't worth the stash for you. If you're constantly scouring the waiver wire because of injuries, he might be someone who is worth a bench spot.
Regardless though, should Mitchell miss any games, the upside is very limited. The positive for Wilson is that if Mitchell does miss another game, fantasy managers can feel confident in Wilson getting 12–18 touches, which puts him on the low-end RB2 or flex radar. The problem is now we know what kind of touches those are and they tend to be very empty ones in terms of fantasy scoring. No targets and limited scoring opportunities. Still, if you're struggling at the running back position, you can do much worse than a handcuff who would walk into 15, give or take touches should Mitchell miss any games.
Mitchell has missed three games already this season and missing Wednesday's practice, at the very least, puts his status for Week 15 up in the air. Still, it's hard to forget about Wilson's two absolute duds when he got the starter's call.
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