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We had some close calls on Monday and unfortunately just missed on a few bets by only mere points as the Thunder scored 102 points in a surprising win (we had them under 101.5) and the Warriors came up just a few baskets short of covering their team total at 217.5. The Spurs covered with ease and the Jazz led wire to wire as I precited so not all is lost.
I think I may continue to add some team totals and various other types of bets to this article as the season goes along and so I added that category to my ongoing season record. Remember to continue to keep checking totals and spreads throughout the day as these lines move (sometimes quite a lot) during the course of the day, especially if players are ruled in or out. And compare books to find the best odds or lines! I primarily use DK or FD sportsbooks, but I know a lot of bettors are using a whole bunch of different books.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, December 22nd, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 51-58
- Against the Spread 32-19
- Over/Under 18-20
- Other Bets (Team Totals, etc) 1-2
- Teasers/Parlays 5-19
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays, too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Cleveland Cavaliers (+6) @ Boston Celtics (212 total)
This slate is absolutely terrible and I'm really hoping we get some bettable games on a huge slate tomorrow night because there is simply not much to like on this card. I tried everything to find another spot to bet than on my Cavs, but yet - here we are.
If you are wondering why our (ok MY) beloved Cavs are six-point underdogs it's because they are without three starters tonight with Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley, and the emerging Isaac Okoro on the COVID list as well as some reserves. Boston is only down Al Horford and Josh Richardson, giving them a clear advantage here AND they are at home.
So why do I think the Cavs can hang? Really, I am just banking on their remaining guys to step up and play at the same level of competitiveness that this team has played at all season. Cleveland has been here before as they missed Love and Markannen for a long stretch of games earlier this season and they still battled. They will need big efforts from Darius Garland, Love, Markannen, and Ricky Rubio but I think that the winning mentality is infectious and that Cleveland will battle like they always do.
If they get wiped out, so be it. But their track record up to this point proves that they are the one underdog on this slate who is the most likely to put up the most fight. The Cavs are good and tonight we find out if they continue to be as resilient as we've seen them be this season.
The Pick: Cavs +6 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Denver Nuggets (-6) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (214 total)
I've been burned by going under on Denver recently, but this one sets up again for an under as they're facing an OKC team that doesn't score much and has been playing some much better defense lately as well. The pace of this game is a full three possessions slower than the league average and I've discussed the offensive inefficiency of OKC before. Denver is typically a pretty sound defensive team and I think some of their totals lately have gone over due to matchups against rather talented offenses (Atlanta, Minnesota, San Antonio).
OKC eeked out a win against a good Memphis team on Monday, but still only scored 102 points in that game. I think they could hang with Denver here, but I would expect a low-scoring affair with both teams struggling with offensive efficiency. The margins for error are getting slim this time of year and there simply aren't any other totals I feel good about - so this is my pick by default as I have to trust the process.
The Pick: UNDER 214 (good down to 212) -110 DK Sportsbook
This slate is gross and since I'm not feeling these spreads, I am going to attempt to build a safe money line parlay here by putting the Bucks, Bulls, and Clippers together to get some decent -105 odds.
The Pick: Bucks/Bulls/Clippers ML Parlay (-105 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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