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Welcome to the fantasy football playoff semifinals! Congratulations to all of those that made it to the final four!
Last week, we highlighted Amon-Ra St. Brown and Gabriel Davis as two of our favorite risers. Hopefully, you were able to add them to your roster and start them in Week 15. Both finished as WR1s last week and possibly helped you secure a trip to the semifinals.
As a reminder, in this weekly column, we'll look at players whose arrows may be pointing up, and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about these players. Here are the key risers and fallers heading into Week 16 of the NFL season.
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Fantasy Football Risers for Week 16
Tyler Johnson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The second-year receiver appears to be one of a few completely healthy Bucs receivers. Chris Godwin (ACL) is out for the season, Mike Evans tweaked his hamstring, Breshad Perriman is on the reserve/COVID-19 list, and Antonio Brown, while his suspension lifted, hasn't played since Week 6 and might not be a full-go in Week 16 even if he does play. That leaves Johnson as one of Tom Brady's primary pass-catchers against the Panthers this week. With Godwin exiting last week's game early, Johnson played on 95% of the snaps and caught 4-of-7 targets for 41 yards. He ran by far the most routes of any Buccaneers receiver (51) on Brady's 54 dropbacks. Scotty Miller ran 41 routes. Johnson could be in line for a big game against a Panthers team allowing 30 points per game in their last four games.
Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals
With DeAndre Hopkins out, it was Christian Kirk who led all Cardinals receivers with a 25% target share in Week 15. He turned his 12 targets into 94 yards and a touchdown. Kirk also led the team in route rate at 96%. Antoine Wesley ran a route on 84% of Kyler Murray dropbacks, while A.J. Green did so just 69% of the time. He has 100+ air yards in consecutive games as well. Christian Kirk should be considered a solid WR2 for the remainder of the regular season.
Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Another Buc rising, this time it's Ronald Jones. Leonard Fournette suffered a hamstring injury in Week 15 that is likely to sideline him for at least a week, possibly two. Jones only played on 30% of the snaps last week while Ke'Shawn Vaughn played on 26% of the snaps, but it was RoJo who saw 10 opportunities to just five for Vaughn. Last season, Jones rushed for 192 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries against the Panthers, the team the Bucs face in Week 16. Add in the fact that Tampa Bay is currently a 10.5-point road favorite and it's easy to see why Jones is in line for a ton of work against Carolina. Oh, and Bruce Arians already told us it's his time.
Jared Cook, Los Angeles Chargers
First and foremost, thoughts and prayers to Donald Parham Jr. after suffering a concussion in Week 15 that left him hospitalized. He's recovering and reportedly doing well, but it's highly unlikely he plays any time soon. As a result, Jared Cook gets an opportunity to be a more full-time tight end in this offense. While still only seeing a snap share of 54% last week, Cook garnered seven targets, two of which came in the red zone. In his last two games, Cook has seen a whopping six red zone targets. If you're looking for a streaming tight end who's got a good chance at finding the end zone, look no further than 6'5" Jared Cook playing against the lowly Houston Texans.
Other Risers: Hunter Henry, Devin Singletary, Isaiah McKenzie, Laquon Treadwell, Russell Gage
Fantasy Football Fallers for Week 16
Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers
For a third straight game, Ray-Ray McCloud ran more routes (22) than Chase Claypool (17). In those three games, Claypool is playing on just an average of 60% of the snaps. The four games prior, he was playing on an average of 90% of the snaps. The trend isn’t looking good for the second-year man out of Notre Dame. Instead of being a steady WR2, Claypool really shouldn’t be trusted as anything more than a boom-or-bust WR3 against the Chiefs in Week 16.
Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
Jeudy laid a goose egg in Week 15, not catching a single ball on just four targets. He’s now averaging just 2.8 receptions on 4.8 targets in his last four games. To make matters worse, Jeudy hasn’t caught a touchdown pass all season on 47 targets. He’s also not playing a full set of snaps as the slot receiver. Last week, he played just 69% of the snaps compared to a 92% snap share for Courtland Sutton and a 95% snap share for Tim Patrick. It’ll be hard to trust him in Week 16 against a Raiders team allowing just 191 passing yards in their last three games.
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
Tough game all around for the Cardinals in Week 15 against the Lions, ultimately losing 30-12. But what's more concerning for James Conner's fantasy managers is his 44% snap share. That's down from 96% in Week 14 when he had the backfield all to himself. Chase Edmonds returned from a four-game absence and played on 40% of the snaps. While Conner still led the two in opportunity share (58.9%), it was a significantly lower percentage of the work than he had previously seen with Edmonds out. Ultimately, the Cardinals should get back on track in Week 16 at home against the Colts, but Edmonds isn't going away and Conner all of a sudden feels like more of a TD-dependent RB2 than the slam dunk RB1 that he was when his backfield mate was on the sidelines.
Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins
Duke Johnson came out of absolutely nowhere in Week 15, rushing for 107 yards and two touchdowns on a career-high 22 carries. His previous career-high was 16 carries in a game last season with the Texans. It was also the third-best fantasy performance of his seven-year career. With Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed missing practice all week, and with Malcolm Brown unable to return from his injury, Johnson was thrust into a featured role. This rendered Gaskin an afterthought. He still managed 10 carries for 54 yards on 37% of the snaps but had no targets in this one after averaging 4.3 per game in his previous 13 games. And now it looks like we might see a committee approach from the Dolphins moving forward, which spells trouble for those banking on Gaskin in the fantasy football playoffs.
Other Fallers: Devonta Freeman, A.J. Green, Laviska Shenault Jr., AJ Dillon
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