RADIO
Welcome to the championship week(s) my esteemed RotoBallers! We've been put through the wringer to get here, but kudos to those of you who persevered and pushed through the injuries and COVID-induced chaos to have a chance at the title. You can't take FAAB with you, so flex that muscle when making adds here. As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.
It's difficult to toe the line between appropriate action and overreaction, but this late in the season, you can usually throw your entire bankroll or waiver priority at whatever your top need is. Whatever your needs as 2022 approaches, here's my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 17.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
**If Taysom Hill (42% rostered) was dropped in your league then I’d go after him prior to his likely activation ahead of a Week 17 date at home versus Carolina.
Trey Lance (QB, SF) - FAAB Bid: 20-25%
12% rostered
It seems Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a right thumb injury against the Titans and may not be available for Week 17. Speaking on Monday, Kyle Shanahan said this of Trey Lance:
Shanahan says that Trey Lance's last month of practice has been his best month so far. Lance will have a chance to start against Houston if Garoppolo "can't throw it as good as he normally does" by Sunday
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) December 27, 2021
And now we collectively recall that before he was deemed ready, Lance hopped into action with two passing TDs in Week 4 as well as 89 rushing yards on 16 carries back in Week 5 when Jimmy G was hurt. QBs with his skills can be game-breakers and if he’s throwing the ball better and showing improved decision-making in practice then we shall commence the hype train for Week 17 against Houston.
Justin Fields (QB, CHI) - FAAB Bid: 10-15%
23% rostered
Fields’ ankle injury kept him out of Week 16 but it wasn’t an early “Out,” so his odds for suiting up in Week 17 against the Giants appear strong. That’s enough for me to at least pencil him into my lineup after delivering strong games in his last four full contests. Garbage time is all the same for us.
Zach Wilson (QB, NYJ) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
8% rostered
Wilson only tossed 102 yards with one passing touchdown (to lineman Conor McDermott!) on Sunday, but made up for that with 91 rushing yards and another score on the ground. That TD came on a hilarious 52-yard escape where the Jags seemed surprised by his speed. I doubt Tampa Bay makes the same mistake, but they’ll be down top pass-rusher Shaq Barrett and any cheap mobility found at QB is good to note. There are few low-rostered streaming plays that feel warm and fuzzy this week. Let’s hope Elijah Moore and Jamison Crowder can suit up!
Davis Mills (QB, HOU) - FAAB Bid: 1-3%
3% rostered
If you don’t want to ride with the Jets (who could blame you?), then Mills heads to San Francisco after his second straight game with over 200 pass yards and two touchdowns. The Texans were missing Brandin Cooks but it didn’t matter, as the Chargers defense flopped like a wet noodle to yield an upset. I don’t expect fireworks from Mills in Week 17, but he’s playing well enough for the Texans to consider him a bridge option beyond 2021 rather than a bandaid.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Rex Burkhead (RB, HOU) - FAAB Bid: 50-100%
14% rostered
It finally happened! Burkhead and the Texans sprung their rushing-attack trap on the Chargers after acting like they couldn’t run the ball throughout the entire 2021 season. This brilliant ploy gave Burkhead 149 yards and two scores on 22 rushes with David Johnson out. Don’t chase this high into their upcoming game against San Francisco, but any lead dog in a RB room must be rostered as an option. San Francisco has buckled down against the run of late and have only allowed Jonathan Taylor to top 100 rush yards against them in 2021, and who hasn’t done that? Still, we must respect Burkhead running hot and giving Houston some confidence in him and the O-line.
Rex Burkhead ran for a career-high 149 rushing yards in the #Texans upset 41-29 victory over the Chargers.
Burkhead gained a majority of his production inside the tackles:
? 15 carries, 122 yards, TD
? +64 RYOE (3rd-most in a game this season)#LACvsHOU | #WeAreTexans pic.twitter.com/rwayGlYifv— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 26, 2021
Dare Ogunbowale (RB, JAX) - FAAB Bid: 50-100%
1% rostered
Sadly, Ogunbowale’s waiver interest comes at the expense of James Robinson, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury early on Sunday. Ogunbowale stepped into a good matchup versus the Jets and hit for 57 yards and a TD on 17 carries, adding two catches for 15 yards to boot. Keep an eye on Tavon Austin (0% rostered) as well, as he wound up with three carries for 21 yards alongside a 6-68-0 receiving line on seven targets. Jacksonville will have to get mighty creative against a reeling Patriots defense, which means Ogunbowale (and Austin) will hope for PPR volume this weekend.
Jordan Howard (RB, PHI) - FAAB Bid: 40-50%
Boston Scott (RB, PHI) - FAAB Bid: 20-30%
16% & 15% rostered
Miles Sanders broke his hand on Sunday and will miss Week 17, which leaves Howard and Scott as the RB committee leaders for the playoff-hungry Eagles. Howard was running behind Sanders and then left the game with a stinger, but Nick Sirianni is hopeful that Howard can return for this Sunday against Washington’s vulnerable defense. If Howard can’t handle a full workload coming off of that then Scott, who tallied a 12-41-1 line of his own in relief, will get another chance to shine.
Derrick Gore (RB, KC) - FAAB Bid: 30-50%
2% rostered
Darrel Williams is already 60% rostered, but the collarbone injury to Clyde Edwards-Helaire elevates Gore into the fantasy-relevant mix. With the Chiefs blowing out the Steelers, Gore saw 15 touches for 104 yards while Williams amassed 85 yards on his 14 touches. We also have to worry about Michael Burton vulturing goal-line touches now, but Gore is a decent flex dart should KC play it safe with CEH heading down the stretch.
**If you want some good mojo then add Cam Akers, who somehow is back after tearing his Achilles in July. Has science gone too far? I don't have any expectations in the regular season but Darrell Henderson has a rib injury and now Akers is Sony Michel's handcuff. Do you believe?
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
K.J. Osborn (WR, MIN) - FAAB Bid: 30-40%
34% rostered
Osborn had slid back into WR5 territory with Adam Thielen back, but then Thielen re-injured his ankle after being tackled by the legs in the second quarter. Thielen briefly returned but then exited for good after looking very uncomfortable in the third quarter. This left Osborn to benefit on a day where the Vikes needed to keep up with the Rams, as K.J. tallied 68 yards with a TD on five catches. He clearly has the trust of Kirk Cousins and the coaches to be a reliable player next to Justin Jefferson (despite the bad INT force), which will be needed if Thielen can’t go against the Packers in a chilly divisional showdown next Sunday night.
KJ Osborn, whose drop caused the INT, entered the day with 41 receptions and 0 drops, the 4th most receptions by a wide receiver without a drop this season (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyler Boyd, Rondale Moore) @ESPNStatsInfo https://t.co/9rgnc93EHd
— Courtney Cronin (@CourtneyRCronin) December 26, 2021
Isaiah McKenzie (WR, BUF) - FAAB Bid: 20-25%
1% rostered
With Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis both on the reserve/COVID-19 list, McKenzie was Josh Allen’s go-to guy alongside Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox. He saw an outstanding 12 targets (plus one carry) while Emmanuel Sanders only saw three looks and let an easy touchdown go through his arms. Meanwhile, McKenzie turned his 11 catches in 125 yards and a score. Neither Beasley nor Davis are vaccinated, leaving them in jeopardy of missing Week 17 as well. Even if both do return, McKenzie’s spark could edge Beasley for slot work while Sanders would slip behind Davis.
Byron Pringle (WR, KC) - FAAB Bid: 10-15%
1% rostered
Last week’s deep waiver add paid off for you, as Pringle popped as the leader in snaps, routes run, and targets for a 6-75-2 line. The two-tuddy game came with Travis Kelce unable to clear COVID-19 protocols and Tyreek Hill playing roughly half of the snaps in a reduced role. The blowout factor surely helped KC let Hill rest up after missing the week, but Pringle is now on the map. His 28 routes run exceed Demarcus Robinson and Hill at 20, with Mecole Hardman’s 16 and Josh Gordon’s eight trailing the rest. A rising No. 2 WR next to Hill and Kelce can pay off against Cincinnati in Week 17 as KC looks to lock up the AFC’s No. 1 seed in these final weeks.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Gerald Everett (TE, SEA) - FAAB Bid: 3-6%
42% rostered
Everett showed up in Sunday’s snow, turning in 68 yards and a TD on four catches (five targets) for his fourth game of 10+ PPR points in his last five contests. That’s a strong rate at a weak position going into a Week 17 date with Detroit. The floor remains low but he’s a good dart at the TE position for those seeking depth just in case a top option becomes unavailable. Seeing him (and the next name) on this list keeps him in my circle:
Highest % of routes run/dropback in Wk 16 (TEs)
Tyler Kroft - 96%?
Zach Ertz - 95%
Tyler Conklin - 91%
Foster Moreau - 90%
George Kittle - 90%
Dawson Knox - 88%
Noah Gray - 88%
Hunter Henry - 85%
Gerald Everett - 84%
Tyler Higbee - 84%
Cole Kmet - 84%— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) December 27, 2021
Foster Moreau (TE, LV) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
22% rostered
Moreau once again eclipsed the 60-yard mark with a 67-yard day in Week 16. He caught all four of his targets and holds steady as a TE on the top-12 fringe for desperate fantasy teams. The Raiders were without Bryan Edwards on Sunday and leaned into a low-scoring slugfest with Drew Lock’s Broncos. This was their fourth-straight game with under 20 points, but Moreau has a case built on volume for as long as Darren Waller is injured.
John Bates (TE, WAS) - FAAB Bid: 1-3%
0% rostered
Bates crawled into the endzone on a strange play that embodied Washington’s ragged performance on Sunday night against Dallas. He would have 45 yards on two catches with the TD, but what we care about is that he worked ahead of Ricky Seals-Jones. Blowout usage rates are hard to lean on, but WFT didn’t pull starters that early and Bates still outsnapped RSJ 45-to-27, running seven more routes than Seals-Jones as well. WFT plays Philadelphia this week, who bleed points to opposing TEs. They even let Evan Engram score this past Sunday! Those in deep-league waters could do far worse.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
Seattle Seahawks Defense (vs. DET) - FAAB Bid: 8-10%
50% rostered
The Seahawks are a maddening team because you feel like they're capable of great things on paper and it just falls apart on the field. They've only generated one turnover in the past three weeks, but the good news is that they've recorded a season-high four sacks in back-to-back games ahead of their date with the Lions. Detroit can scrap, but the Lions are still traveling into Seattle's home-field advantage with either Tim Boyle or Jared Goff after missing a week-plus on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Amon-Ra St. Brown will feast and D'Andre Swift returning would sting, but Seattle is still in a plus spot with few great matchups to choose from.
Chicago Bears Defense (vs. NYG) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
16% rostered
The Giants are a mess and can't find ways to utilize their best players. You don't have to ask many questions here, as they can't even settle between Jake Fromm and Mike Glennon in Daniel Jones' absence. Target bad offenses and good things can happen. Chicago is at home here and even their decimated secondary can stand up against the caliber of QB deployed by Big Blue.
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