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Welcome to the Week 17 Sunday slates edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:
- The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
- Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
- Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
- This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
- The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability very important criteria.
With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Week 17 Sunday slates!
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Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Ryan Tannehill, TEN vs. MIA | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $25
Tannehill draws a matchup against his old Dolphins squad for the first time and gets to face a defense that's had a true Jekyll-and-Hyde quality to it when it's come to its home/road splits. Miami has played stellar pass defense overall of late, but they've had some favorable matchups along the way that have helped out their numbers. The Fins are still allowing an NFL-high 283.1 passing yards per road contest, along with the third-highest yards per completion in that split. While Tannehill likely won't have Julio Jones available due to his placement on the COVID-19 list, but the matchup and extra motivation in facing his old team should give him a good chance of delivering on his reasonable salaries.
Mac Jones, NE vs. JAX | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $23
Jones may certainly be rostered a bit on the lighter side given the jumbo-sized Sunday slates and the fact he's legitimately turned in some lackluster performances in recent weeks, but he's in a clear get-right spot in what is an indisputably important game for the Patriots. The Jaguars are ranked in No. 30 in Defense DVOA and 31st in Pass Defense DVOA, and they also check in No. 27 in yards per pass and No. 29 in explosive pass play rate. That should give Jones no shortage of metrics to exploit at extremely reasonable salaries and allow him to bounce back from his poor showing versus the Bills in the tough Week 16 matchup.
ALSO CONSIDER: Russell Wilson, SEA vs. DET | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $31
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Rashaad Penny, SEA vs. DET | DK: $6,100, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $22
Penny will undoubtedly be popular after a pair of 100-yard efforts in the last three weeks and an opportunity to ply his trade against what has been an above-average matchup for running backs all season. However, he still carries reasonable salaries relative to some of the higher-end options on the slate. The Lions have yielded 126.4 rushing yards per road contest as well, along with 4.3 RB yards per carry overall and an NFL-high eight receiving TDs to running backs.
Melvin Gordon, DEN at LAC | DK: $6,200, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $21
Gordon is dealing with his usual thumb and hip issues during the practice week, but he's fully expected to continue playing through them in Week 17. The matchup could hardly be better against a Chargers run defense that just allowed a 149-yard rushing day to journeyman Rex Burkhead in Week 16. Los Angeles is now allowing 140.3 rushing yards per contest and 4.6 RB yards per carry, and the Bolts are also ranked in the bottom half of the league in explosive rush play rate allowed (11%). Gordon posted an 17-83 line on the ground versus the Chargers in the first meeting between the teams as well, enhancing his case even further.
ALSO CONSIDER: Darrel Williams, KC at CIN | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $21
DRAFTKINGS-ONLY SPECIAL: D'Andre Swift, DET at SEA | $6,000
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Darnell Mooney, CHI vs. NYG | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $22
Mooney continues to enjoy a solid downfield role irrespective of who's under center for the Bears, and despite the return of Allen Robinson from a two-game absence this week, the speedster has a bright outlook relative to his salaries against a Giants team that's played very poor defense on the road all season. New York has allowed 266.5 passing yards per game and a 68.5 percent completion rate in that split, while Mooney checks in with an average of 7. 4 targets per contest and a robust 25.0 percent team target share overall.
Jakobi Meyers, NE vs. JAX | DK: $5,100, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $18
Meyers has been one of Mac Jones' steadiest targets all season, drawing 110 targets over 15 games, including three contests with double-digit looks. The third-year pro typically does most of his work in the short-to-intermediate passing windows, which sets up well in a matchup against a Jaguars defense that's allowing 10.2 yards per completion on the road and an elevated 69.5 percent completion rate when traveling as well. Meyers makes for an excellent salary-saving option to pair with Jones if you're looking to invest heavier at other positions.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET at SEA | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $19
Another steady and high-volume shorter-area target is St. Brown, who's come on strong during the second half of his rookie season to the tune of a 35-340-3 line on 46 targets in his last four games. St. Brown worked well with Tim Boyle in Week 16, posting a 9-91 line on 11 targets. The Seahawks make for a good defense to attack, considering Seattle is allowing the third-most passing yards per home game (279.4)), along with an elevated 10.7 yards per completion at Lumen Field as well.
ALSO CONSIDER: Gabriel Davis, BUF vs. ATL | DK: $5,000, FD: $5,300, Yahoo: $20
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Dallas Goedert, PHI at WAS| DK: $5,100, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $22
Goedert saw a downturn in Week 16 with just a pair of receptions in the win over the Giants, so he's likely to be had at lower rostering rates than usual for another favorable divisional matchup. Washington has given up a 76-907-5 line to tight ends on the season, and Goedert just lit them up for a 7-135 line on nine targets in Week 15. The athletic tight end has a pair of 100-yard efforts overall in the last three contests, and he should be primed for a bounce-back effort if coach Nick Sirianni smartly opts to focus heavily on what worked so well just two games ago.
Foster Moreau, LVR at IND | DK: $3,800, FD: $5,200, Yahoo: $14
In addition to his knee and back issues, Darren Waller is also currently on the COVID-19 list, making it highly likely the star tight end misses yet another game in Week 17. Moreau has posted an 11-132 line on 13 targets over his last two games, and the Colts have been highly susceptible to tight ends all season while surrendering a 98-1,004-8 line to the position across 15 games. Moreau can get downfield as well, already posting five catches of over 20 yards despite limited playing time this season.
ALSO CONSIDER: Zach Ertz, ARI at DAL | DK: $5,200, FD: $5,500, Yahoo: $17
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