RADIO
We hit both our spread bets on Wednesday but missed yet another total. The totals have been so wonky lately that it's forced me to make some tweaks to my model to incorporate a rolling recent 10-game sample and hopefully that's going to help us get a better idea there. In the meantime, I will probably still lean towards making more spread picks because I am winning there at a considerably higher rate.
We have 13 freaking games today, people! After a loaded MLK day slate and then only two games last night, we get another wild Wednesday full of NBA action. Buckle up, it should be a fun ride, and let's see where we can make some profit on this slate.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, January 19th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 63-59
- Against the Spread 41-32
- Over/Under 19-24
- Other/Props 5-4
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too. I also was advised by multiple people that I was being too hard on myself by counting teaser and parlay picks in my overall record, so I took those out and BAM, I'm sitting at six picks over .500 on the year right now, which is pretty solid.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Brooklyn Nets (+1) @ Washington Wizards (234 total)
The Nets are coming off a tough loss to the Cavs, but that's nothing to be ashamed of as we know the Cavs are a team on the rise and Brooklyn has been forced into playing a lot of younger wings and bigs due to injury. Tonight they look to bounce back against the Wizards on the road and I think they can get one here.
Yes, the Wizards do have Bradley Beal back in the lineups and are coming off a big win over the Sixers. They've even won four of their last five, but three of those wins are against Orlando and OKC, so I'm still not all that impressed.
I'm going to side with the Nets here mainly because I think Washington doesn't have an answer for Kyrie and Harden and I think we see LaMarcus Aldridge help pick up the slack as he starts to work his way back into more minutes after being out a long time. If Vegas sees this one as a coin flip, I'll side with the better team even if they are without Durant. I think Brooklyn grinds out a win here on the road.
The Pick: Nets ML (-110 DK Sportsbook)
Minnesota Timberwolves (+2) @ Atlanta Hawks @ (235.5 total)
I was on Minnesota last night and while they won, they failed to cover -3 on the road in New York which was a bummer. But now we get them here in Atlanta as underdogs, and I'm not convinced they should be. This T-Wolves team is solid and we are really starting to see them mesh well on offense as Edwards, Russell, and Towns have found a way to co-exist. Their defense is vastly improved, too, as Pat Beverley has been value-added there as well as the contributions from Jarred Vanderbilt on the boards.
Pat Bev will need to slow down Trae Young, which is no easy task. But if he can hold him even a little in check, I like Minnesota's chances. The Hawks are still down Clint Capela and Bogdan Bogdanovic, which really tips the scales for me as Towns has an easier matchup inside and the Minnesota bench should have a solid matchup against Atlanta's second unit here.
The Pick: T-Wolves ML (+105 DK Sportsbook)
Memphis Grizzlies (+6.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks (229 total)
This is probably a trap, I know it already, but I am ready to fall for it. Everything here points to a Bucks win and likely a cover as they could get Jrue Holiday back for this game while Memphis is going to be without Desmond Bane, Kyle Anderson, and Tyus Jones.
Still, I just can't count Memphis out. They have some unsung heroes like Jon Konchar, Xavier Tillman, and others who are often buried on the bench when everyone is healthy but can perform when called upon. Oh, and they have this point guard named Ja Morant who is pretty good and can carry the team when he has to.
This is my least confident pick of the day, but Memphis is too good to be this big of an underdog against anyone in the league. Their depth is their strength and they've been plugging in various pieces all season long without missing much of a beat.
The Pick: Grizzlies +6.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks Totals
Portland Trail Blazers (+10) @ Miami Heat @ (212.5 total)
So I mentioned in the introduction that I made some adjustments to the total projections that take into account the last ten game sample size. That should help us get a more accurate read on these Vegas lines and we shouldn't see every game coming in under its total now.
Perhaps the recent game model is what's pushing my projection here up so much, but I have this game pegged for 219 points tonight. Miami has Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo back and can be a force offensively with Tyler Herro carrying the bench unit. Portland isn't terrible defensively, but they will struggle to match up with Butler and company in this one.
Having C.J. McCollum back out there is a boon to their offense and they have enough capable three-point marksman to keep up with Miami here. This total is just far too low for the number of quality offensive players in this game and it's the favorite in the new model, so let's give it a whirl, shall we?
The Pick: OVER 212.5 (good up to 214.5) -110 DK Sportsbook
We love home favorites and had some success on Monday with a three-teamer. This one doesn't carry the greatest odds, but anything over +100 is fine by me.
The Pick: Miami-Denver-Sacramento ML Parlay (+112 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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