RADIO
Welcome to Divisional Weekend, RotoBallers! I can't believe we're in the playoffs already. We have a great matchup here as the San Francisco 49ers (10-7) head to Lambeau to take on the Green Bay Packers (13-4) after a crazy Wild Card Weekend victory over the Dallas Cowboys. We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues tonight with Saturday Night Football. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Saturday Night Football showdown slate on January 22nd. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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DFS Captain/MVP Plays
Aaron Rodgers ($16,200 DK, $16,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 4,115 passing yards, 37 touchdowns, 4 interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 36.4% (2nd), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 5.8% (15th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start this slate off as I have with all of the Packers' primetime slates.....with the "Bad Man", Aaron Rodgers. The "drive" of being passed up by the Niners back in 2005 hasn't done Rodgers much favor in the playoffs, as he's 0-3 against San Francisco in the postseason, most recently falling short in the 2020 NFC Championship Game where he threw for 326 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. This weekend feels different though. Rodgers has a little extra something to prove and is playing seemingly the best football of his life. The Niners' pass defense is riding high after a win in Dallas, but I trust Rodgers to do his thing and attack an average secondary on Saturday night.
Elijah Mitchell ($12,300 DK, $13,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 234 attempts, 1,059 rushing yards, seven rushing touchdowns, 22 targets, 20 receptions, 126 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown.
- 2021 Data: 62% attempt rate, 52.78% red-zone attempt rate, 50% attempt rate within the five-yard line, 7.91% target rate, 4% red-zone target rate.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: 6.6% (5th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -0.1% (28th).
I hate calling things a "smash-play" or a "home-run" in the playoffs where data should be taken with a grain of salt, but this matchup for Mitchell is so good it makes it too difficult to pass up. Mitchell toted the rock 27 times for 96 yards and a touchdown against Dallas last Sunday and now gets a matchup against the fifth-worst rushing defense (in DVOA) this weekend. I'm a bit concerned with the game script since if the Niners go down early, they may be forced to "abandon" the run. I'm also a bit concerned over Deebo Samuel getting a solid amount of backfield work just to get the ball in his hands. With all of that said though, I think the game is close enough for the majority of it that San Francisco will use the run game to control the clock. I also think that 27 carries last weekend is a promising outlook for this weekend, and if Mitchell can log 20 carries, he's cheap enough that I'm confident to play him at captain on DraftKings.
Other Captains/MVPs: Deebo Samuel, Davante Adams, Brandon Aiyuk
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DFS Flex Plays
Jimmy Garoppolo ($9,000 DK, $14,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 3,982 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, 13 interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 33.2% (5th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 5.8% (15th), per Football Outsiders.
I forgot until I researched this game how hilarious the 2020 NFC Championship was. Jimmy Garoppolo threw the ball just eight (8) times en route to a 37-20 win. He'll likely need to do more this weekend, though. I think Elijah Mitchell will be able to run the ball well through the Packers' defense (as mentioned under the Captain/MVP plays), but it's impossible to expect a repeat performance here. This is more a FanDuel play, but he's cheap enough on both sites that he's a viable play if you're looking to build a more balanced lineup. I don't plan on captaining him at all on DraftKings either, but will consider it on FanDuel due to the pricing/scoring difference.
Davante Adams ($11,600 DK, $14,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 169 targets, 123 receptions, 11 receiving touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 32.46% target rate, 29.35% red-zone target rate, 10 end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs Emmanuel Moseley): 17% target rate per route covered, 57% catch rate, 0.22 fantasy points per route covered.
The best wide receiver in football (sorry Cooper Kupp truthers) has been Mr. Reliable for fantasy owners and DFS players all season, and Saturday night should be no different. He has one of the best matchups in this entire game against Emmanuel Moseley. While the catch rate against Moseley remains low, the 17% target rate shows me that guys are creating space when lined up across from him, and there is no doubt in my mind a fluid route runner like Adams should create enough space to get a ton of work in this one. Despite the Packers' woes in the 2020 NFC Championship, Adams still grabbed nine of his 11 targets for 138 yards. What I think makes the difference this time around, though, is I think he finds the end zone at least once in this one.
Other Flex Options: Aaron Jones, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk
DFS Value Plays
AJ Dillon ($5,000 DK, $8,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 187 attempts, 803 rushing yards, seven rushing touchdowns, 37 targets, 34 receptions, 313 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 41.29% attempt rate, 37% red-zone attempt rate, 55.56% attempt rate within the 5yd line, 6.74% target rate, 4.76% red-zone target rate.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: 3.5% (8th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -24.8% (2nd), per Football Outsiders.
This play just makes so much sense on DraftKings, and I really don't understand why Dillon's price is this low. Sure, there's some volatility to his fantasy production, but he's scored at least seven DraftKings points in each game dating back to Week 8. He logged 14 carries in each of the Packers' Week 17 and Week 18 matchups, so it's not like his volume has bottomed out. For a guy with a 37% red-zone attempt rate and an attempt rate greater than 50% within the five-yard line, why wouldn't you play Dillon at $5K? Obviously, I'd tread with more caution on FanDuel due to the pricing and construction differences, but I'll be very heavy on AJ Dillon on DraftKings.
Robbie Gould ($4,000 DK, $8,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 26 field goals attempted, 23 field goals made, 41/42 PAT.
You don't get the nickname "as good as Gould" unless your last name is Gould. All jokes aside, Robbie was "as good as Gould" on Sunday in Dallas, knocking down all three extra-point attempts as well as a field goal on each of the 49ers' final drives in both halves. Gould hasn't missed a kick against the Pack in the playoffs, going 5/5 on field goals and 7/7 on extra points across three games. Thanks to his 11 seasons in Chicago, he has some familiarity with kicking in Lambeau during the winter months as well. Gould is simply better than Mason Crosby at this point in their careers, and while I think both will be needed in this one, I trust that Gould is the safer play here.
Other Value Plays: Jauan Jennings, Randall Cobb, Mason Crosby
Enjoy your weekend and good luck everyone!
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