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With no football to watch or wager on today (if you're wagering on the Pro Bowl, then you're a special type of gambler), I thought I would drop a bonus Sunday NBA best bets. There are eight games today scattered across the afternoon and evening for our viewing and betting pleasure.
To recap, Friday was a solid bounce-back day for me. All three bets from the article hit and I added the Rockets to my card later in the afternoon on Twitter (so I can't count that one on my record). It was one of those days where the macro bets, prop bets, and DFS lineups all hit and it was a thing of beauty. The record is back up over .500 and I intend to keep it there.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Sunday, February 6th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 72-71
- Against the Spread 45-38
- Over/Under 21-29
- Other/Props 6-4
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Philadelphia 76ers (-1.5) @ Chicago Bulls (219.5 total)
This is one of the best games of the day as the Sixers bring the fifth-best record in the East into Chicago to face off against the conference-leading Bulls. Chicago has climbed to the top of the standings in the East as of today despite battling injuries all season, most notably the long absences of Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. However, they'll have their hands full today with a Sixers team that has already beaten them twice this season.
The Sixers are coming off a disappointing loss to the Mavericks on Friday night and have now dropped two straight games after reeling off five wins in a row before that. If both teams are fully healthy, I would probably lean towards Chicago here but the Bulls could be without Zach LaVine again today in addition to the other missing guards I already mentioned.
The individual matchups here favor the Sixers as Embiid is too much for Vucevic inside, Tobias Harris will be too much for Javonte Green, and Tyrese Maxey has really raised his play lately which will be an issue for the Bulls as their best defensive guards will be in street clothes. The power forward position has really performed well against Chicago this season so I am adding Tobias's points/rebounds/assists here as a secondary prop bet.
I'm not messing around with that half-point and potentially losing the bet if Philly wins by only one, so I'll take the ML here instead at -120.
The Pick: Sixers ML (-120 DK Sportsbook)
Bonus Pick: Tobias Harris o/28.5 PRA (-110 DK Sportsbook)
Atlanta Hawks (+2.5) @ Dallas Mavericks (218 total)
Picking against the Hawks was a bit scary on Friday night, but the red-hot Raptors came through and handled them in the second half, making me look smart (and not just lucky?). The numbers back up this play today and so do my eyeballs as I watched Luka Doncic single-handedly dismantle the Sixers on Friday night. Luka is simply playing on another level right now and it's truly impressive what he's been able to do in Dallas this season with Kristaps Porzingis constantly hurt and a bunch of role players around him.
Atlanta is dealing with some injuries once again with John Collins and Danilo Gallinari both questionable for this game. They've been pretty bad as road underdogs this season (6-11) while the Mavericks are 9-8 as home favorites. Luka should go nuts today (play him in DFS, please) and Dallas seems to have found a solid lineup to put around Luka lately with some unsung heroes like Reggie Bullock playing well and Jalen Brunson emerging as a worthy Robin to Luka's Batman.
I like Dallas to cover at home based on the way they're playing right now and my total lack of faith in Atlanta establishing any consistency this season.
The Pick: Mavs -2.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Totals and Other Betting Picks
New Orleans Pelicans (-5) @ Houston Rockets (230.5 total)
So the first thing you'll notice in the model today is that this is the biggest disparity with my projection coming in nearly nine points lower than Vegas. A lot of that has to do with some recent trends where both the Pelicans and Rockets have been scoring under their season averages. This is a pretty gross game overall with both teams being bottom feeders and it's hard to know what type of effort we are getting from these players on tanking teams on a nightly basis.
I think the Pelicans win, but I'm not confident enough to lay five points because Houston has some dudes who can play when they feel like it. I would take the under at 230.5 but I also worry that if the Pelicans do run away with this that the game goes over in garbage time as these types of games tend to do.
I have a very specific bet and angle here. I'm taking the Rockets under their team total of 112.5 points. Here's why.
Houston has exceeded that 112 points just once in their last six games and while the Pelicans suck, their defense has allowed opponents to score over 112 points just three times in their last seven games going all the way back to mid-January. The only meeting between these teams this season ended in a 118-108 win for the Rockets, showing that our under here is certainly viable and the team total under could certainly work if we flip those scores around in an expected Pelicans win.
The Pick: Rockets team total UNDER 112.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
The Pick: Celtics/Timberwolves/Cavaliers ML Parlay (+112 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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