RADIO
Another really solid night last night as the Suns and Kings took care of business as our main bets. Brandon Ingram came up short of his prop despite a good matchup, but the fourth bet that I added mid-day hit as Reggie Bullock hit four threes to go over his 2.5 prop. I'll take 3-1 any time, especially if the one loss was just a prop bet.
Only six games tonight on a Wednesday in the association, but that won't stop me from finding a few spots we can target, and let's keep the hot streak going, shall we?
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, February 9th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 83-72
- Against the Spread 51-38
- Over/Under 21-29
- Other/Props 11-5
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Chicago Bulls (-2.5) @ Charlotte Hornets (235 total)
Well I wanted to hit the over first thing and I hesitated a little and holy mackerel did this thing jump all the way from 230 up to 235 already. This is the game for DFS tonight for sure as the other big total out in MIN-SAC also comes with a big spread as the Kings just traded some guys and could trade a few more today or tomorrow.
I like Chicago here (did I trick you with the cover photo) and I think Charlotte is once again getting too much love here at home as only 2.5 point dogs. This is a team that has been struggling lately, dropping their last five games in a row and getting rolled now by double-digits in their last two. Gordon Hayward went down last game (screwing over a lot of DFS players in the process) and so now Charlotte is short-handed once again. While Hayward isn't the main scoring option on Charlotte, he's certainly a valuable piece of their rotation that isn't easily replaced and the Hornets are only 2-5 with a -6 net rating in seven games without him this season.
The Bulls are short-handed, too, as they are still without Lonzo Ball, Alex Caruso, and will now be missing Ayo Dosunmu who had been filling in admirably for those guys of late. The big three of Lavine, Vucevic, and DeRozan are playing, however, and that's all that matters for me. This team has shown some resilience this season as they really haven't had a healthy starting five in over a month and yet they are still in third place overall in the East.
I think Chicago finds a way to get it done here as the big three put this team on their back and pick up a road win here. This isn't a very big spread to cover and Chicago has been excellent as road favorites this season (11-3).
The Pick: Bulls -2.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
Golden State Warriors (+2) @ Utah Jazz (220 total)
I really struggled with this pick but after a lot of deliberation, I am rolling with the Warriors as road dogs here against the Jazz. Golden State is 6-4 this season as a road dog and they're being a bit disrespected with this line considering they're 9-1 over their last ten games. Yes, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are out tonight, but this Utah team isn't the same team that dominated the league for the first two months either. Utah still won't have their defensive player of the year center Rudy Gobert and since their last meeting with the Warriors, they've lost important glue guy Joe Ingles for the season.
I watched the Jazz struggle to pull out a win against the Knicks at home the other night and it took some Donovan Mitchell heroics in the late game for them to seal that win. The only result we have to go off here is a 94-92 win by the Warriors in their first meeting but Utah had Gobert in that game and no Donovan Mitchell.
Hopefully, we get this matchup in the playoffs with both teams fully healthy, but even then I think it's a coin flip. I'll side with the team playing more consistently of late here with the Warriors and the value is on their ML here in-game where they should probably be favored by a point or two.
The Pick: Warriors ML (+105 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Totals Betting Picks
Toronto Raptors (-9.5) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (207.5 total)
So I couldn't bring myself to take the Raptors laying that many points on the road. This OKC team actually upset them earlier this season (although they had SGA for that game) and the Thunder have managed to keep games relatively close without SGA in this most recent stretch of games without him.
Toronto should definitely win this game, though, and the model likes the over as one of the top-rated bets. I'm not sure I have enough faith in the OKC offense to do their part to hit the game total, but this Raptors team is playing extremely well right now during their six-game winning streak, especially on offense as they've averaged 118 points scored during the streak. I like Toronto to go over their implied total of 108.5 points and I think it's good to bet even at 109.5 if it jumps today.
I'm going back to Siakam as my favorite player prop, though I'm going just points and rebounds today as his recent passing totals are inflating his PRA props. The Thunder get abused on the boards and Siakam had 23 points and 11 boards in their first meeting. He's only missed that 30 point/rebound threshold once in the six-game winning streak and he barely missed it by one against Miami.
The Pick: Toronto over 108.5 total points
Bonus Pick: Pascal Siakam over 30.5 Points/Rebounds (-115 DK Sportsbook)
We have had a few slates now with a lot of lopsided games so while I am betting the close spreads, I am just using these 7-8 point favorites to build some bigger ML parlays and having some success (three in a row now if you're keeping track). Here is who I like today.
The Pick: CLE/MIN/TOR/LAL ML Parlay (+178 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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