RADIO
It was a total mixed bag of results in yesterday's column and an overall mark of 3-3. The Cavs really let me down and you know I watched every minute of that game waiting for them to take control late, but it was just the opposite as Trae Young had a terrific night, and guys like Danilo Gallinari, DeAndre Hunter, and Bogdan Bogdanovic all stepped up. At least Darius Garland did his thing in that game, and Buddy Hield destroyed his three-point prop, too. Desmond Bane should have cleared 2.5 threes easily but had a poor shooting night. Even so, the Grizzlies handled the Pelicans with ease without their best player Ja Morant. The Sixers, well, I am not sure what happened there but apparently, the Celtics are unstoppable right now and Philly is in dire need of a jump start from James Harden after the break.
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It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Tuesday, February 15th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 94-83-1
- Against the Spread 54-43-1
- Over/Under 22-31
- Other/Props 18-9
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Sacramento Kings (+5) @ Chicago Bulls (232.5 total)
The old saying goes, "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em." And I thought I had picked successfully against these Bulls on Monday with the Spurs leading throughout that game. Then DeMar DeRozan decided to take over and salt away another win for Chicago with yet another epic fourth-quarter performance.
The Kings are 1-1 now since the big deadline deal that sent Tyrese Haliburton to Indiana for Domantas Sabonis. They are coming off a 24-point loss to a Nets team that didn't have any of it's star players and I don't have much faith in them keeping this game close with Chicago, even if the Bulls are without Zach LaVine.
DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic have shown they are good enough to carry this team and the recent play of Coby White and Aso Dosunmu in the backcourt has been solid enough to make up for the complete lack of a bench. I think Chicago takes care of business and wins this game comfortably at home.
The Pick: Bulls -5 (-110)
NBA Totals Betting Picks
Toronto Raptors (-1) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (229.5 total)
I was really surprised we actually have a T-Wolves game with a total under 230 here. Minnesota has been in some really high-scoring affairs lately with their last five games all going over 230 total points including last night's 126-120 overtime win against the Hornets.
Fred VanVleet is questionable for Toronto and I think we probably won't see Anthony Edwards for Minnesota after he left last night's game early. But these teams have enough offensive firepower to get over this total and a number of individual players here have excellent matchups (Towns, Siakam, Gary Trent Jr.).
I haven't taken an over in a while, but I feel pretty good about this one. Minnesota played double-OT last night and they're 6-2 on overs this season when they don't have a rest day if you want another trend to back the pick.
The Pick: OVER 227.5 (-110)
Denver Nuggets (+5.5) @ Golden State Warriors (225 total)
This should be a fun game with the Joker taking on Steph Curry, two MVP candidates duking it out on the West Coast. I don't have enough confidence in Denver's supporting cast to take them with the points here and at the same time, I have been burned by trusting the Warriors lately.
So let's skip the spread and focus on the total. These two teams met only once this season with that game ending in an 89-86 win for Denver. While that is a fluky low score for sure, it does give me some hope that we see less offense and more defense tonight. While the Nuggets have been trending more towards going over than under in the last month, Golden State is still hitting their unders at the third-highest rate in the NBA this year (59%). The lack of pace (projected at only 98 possessions) certainly helps, too. In order for this game to go over the total at its projected pace, we will need to see some really efficient offense from both squads, which certainly could happen, but I'm banking on the game staying close and slowing down in crunch time as both teams start valuing each possession more.
The Pick: UNDER 225 (-110)
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
Gallo was clutch for the Hawks last night as he poured in 23 points in a spot start for John Collins at power forward. Many DFS players flocked to Clint Capela, but it was Gallinari who benefited the most from Collins' absence. With Collins out again tonight, and with Orlando allowing nearly three more points than league average to the PF position, this points prop for Gallo seems like a no-brainer for me.
The Pick: Danilo Gallinari over 13.5 points (-110)
3:00 PM UPDATES
Buddy Hield over 3.5 Threes (-125) - a little juice on Hield again, but you can't ignore the shot volume and what he did last night (8-12 from deep).
Zach Collins over 12.5 PRA (-105) - I am rolling with Collins over Poeltl here as his number is much lower. Collins has averaged nearly 15 PRA in four games for the Spurs this year and this is an elite matchup for the San Antonio big men as the Thunder have given up nearly three more PRA to opposing centers than league average. Zach has hit this number in three out of four games already and looks great since returning from injury.
DeMar DeRozan over 44.5 PRA (-105) - DDR has just been on an unreal tear the last few weeks and is averaging 47 PRA over his last five, hitting this number in each game. It's a big number, but this is a great matchup for the Bulls and the Kings are just good enough to hang around and force some ceiling performances from DeRozan and Vucevic - who I also like at 39.5 if you want to go there.
Desmond Bane over 26.5 PRA - Bane didn't clear his three-point prop last night, but I like it again tonight as this is an elite matchup for wings in Portland. Instead of his three prop (which is still bettable), I will hit his PRA prop as he's a solid rebounder and passer, too.
We have some HUGE favorites tonight so I am going to piece together a ML parlay here with five teams I think are pretty much locks to win (no guarantees, though, ever!)
The Pick: Phoenix/Memphis/Chicago/Boston/Atlanta ML Parlay (+170)
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- Julius Randle and Seth Curry both to score over 15.5 points (+140) - I really like this one!
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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