Jon Anderson's SP Tiered Rankings and Projections, Part 1

Here we go, starting pitcher tiers! This is one of the most challenging exercises of the offseason, but I'm happy to bring you the results of my work here!

From December through January, I went through each team in the league and looked at all of their fantasy-relevant players one by one. This gave me a pretty good feel for the SP position. My SP ranks look quite a bit different than other people, and they really don't line up very closely with the ADP right now. This either means that I'm a genius or a dolt. Only time will tell.

For now, here are my top-37 starting pitchers for 2022, segmented into tiers. I included their current ATC projection along with their name and rank, but keep in mind that I did not rank based on the projections at all, and that will show here.

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Tier One - The Super Studs

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	GS	IP	W	ERA	WHIP	SO
Corbin Burnes	1	12	28	169	12	3.06	1.04	219
Gerrit Cole	2	8	30	192	16	3.15	1.03	253

It seems silly to rank Burnes over Cole here after you see the innings projections. My take is that I'm not going to guess about innings pitched until I'm absolutely forced to. I don't see any reason that Burnes can't throw 180 innings this year, and to me that's a full season pitched. I'm not the type to adjust my rankings over a dozen innings, so Burnes is my guy.

By the numbers, he was just flat-out better than Cole last year. In fact, Cole was pretty far below elite after the stick substance business (4.25 ERA, 1.30 WHIP after the crackdown). Burnes put up a 2.43 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP with one of the most ridiculous trios of strikeouts, walks, and homers allowed I've ever seen. You can have the extra 20 innings, I want Burnes.

 

Tier Two - The Studs

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	GS	IP	W	ERA	WHIP	SO
Brandon Woodruff	3	20	30	179	12	3.34	1.09	202
Max Scherzer	4	19	29	175	13	3.23	1.05	222
Walker Buehler	5	18	31	191	14	3.57	1.11	197
Zack Wheeler	6	25	30	198	13	3.40	1.11	203
Shane Bieber	7	32	28	174	13	3.31	1.10	216
Jacob deGrom	8	25	23	143	11	2.48	0.94	206
Aaron Nola	9	41	30	182	12	3.72	1.14	210

This is the biggest second-tier I've had in several years, I think. Of course, Jacob deGrom would be my #1 overall pitcher without the arm concerns, but for now, I have him on the back end of this tier just because of how much more likely he is to miss all kinds of times than the rest of the group.

I am captaining the Aaron Nola ship this year, and I'm not being shy about it. He is going to pitch like an ace this year, take it to the bank. The safe name here is Woodruff, who has been the picture of consistency for the last three seasons. I want to be lower than the field on Wheeler since that 2021 season came as a pretty big surprise, and I'll let someone else buy high there.

My Favorite: Woodruff

My Fade: Wheeler

ADP Considered Upside: Nola

 

Tier Three - The Safe SP2's

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	GS	IP	W	ERA	WHIP	SO
Lucas Giolito	10	45	30	180	12	3.75	1.14	206
Sandy Alcantara	11	43	30	191	12	3.56	1.17	182
Frankie Montas	12	93	31	178	12	3.62	1.20	191
Julio Urias	13	38	32	176	14	3.60	1.15	175
Freddy Peralta	14	57	30	160	11	3.69	1.14	206

All of these guys flirted with Tier Two, but I had to draw the line somewhere. I think there is just a bit lower of a ceiling with all of these names, and a bit more inherent risk as well.

If I can help it, I really like to draft very high strikeout rates for my first three or four starters, and you just don't really get that with Alcantara, Montas, or Urias. They certainly are all excellent pitchers, but I'd much rather get into Tier Two than have one of them as my SP1 or SP2.

I don't think I'll have much Peralta for the same reason as Wheeler, I just don't think it's a great practice to buy high on the guy that pitched way above his expectation the previous year. That isn't to say I don't think he has a very good chance to be great again this year, but I'm just not buying in at his current price.

My Favorite: Giolito

My Fade: Peralta

ADP Considered Upside: Montas

 

Tier Four - Upside and Downside

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	GS	IP	W	ERA	WHIP	SO
Shane McClanahan	15	113	27	147	11	3.68	1.23	162
Logan Webb	16	65	29	166	11	3.51	1.21	161
Lance Lynn	17	68	30	180	12	3.73	1.18	194
Yu Darvish	18	101	30	171	11	3.97	1.14	193
Luis Castillo	19	91	31	186	12	3.88	1.28	191
Robbie Ray	20	51	30	182	11	3.61	1.15	232
Chris Sale	21	57	29	156	11	3.51	1.12	193
Trevor Rogers	22	96	29	157	10	3.50	1.21	174
Dylan Cease	23	85	31	167	12	3.81	1.25	204

This is where we realize that the position is actually pretty deep. I think all of these names could return SP1 level numbers this year, and we've ranked 22 pitchers already.

This is a large tier of pitchers, and they all have their unique positives and negatives.

We have the young guns who raise questions about repeatability and workloads (McClanahan, Webb, Rogers, Cease). We have the old guys that scare you a bit given the long careers they've put on their arms already (Lynn, Darvish, Sale), you have the injury risk in Chris Sale, and then the "I've been jerked around by these two guys for five years now I'm done with it" duo in Castillo and Ray.

I certainly don't want to start my pitching staff in this tier, but I'd be perfectly happy with grabbing my SP3 here.

My Favorite: Darvish

My Fade: Ray

ADP Considered Upside: McClanahan

 

Tier Five - Innings Questions

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	GS	IP	W	ERA	WHIP	SO
Shohei Ohtani	24	9	25	141	9	3.58	1.19	163
Clayton Kershaw	25	173	22	124	9	3.57	1.13	130
Shane Baz	26	142	23	120	9	3.64	1.14	134

This is pretty similar to Tier Four, but the workload questions are much louder in these cases. Kershaw has had trouble staying on the field for quite awhile now, and he's turning 34 this spring. Ohtani's maximum possible innings pitched is probably like 160, so you have basically no chance at him being a true SP1 for you, and then you would have to think the Rays will be quite careful with Baz as well given his youth and lack of experience thus far.

That said, these three guys were all elite on the hill last year when pitching, and there's really something to be said for that.

My Favorite: Kershaw

My Fade: Ohtani

ADP Considered Upside: Kershaw

 

Tier Six - Mixed Bag

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	GS	IP	W	ERA	WHIP	SO
Lance McCullers Jr.	27	172	27	152	11	3.62	1.26	163
Pablo Lopez	28	139	26	145	9	3.67	1.16	143
Luis Garcia	29	152	25	141	8	3.95	1.27	147
Joe Musgrove	30	78	31	178	12	3.61	1.16	195
Max Fried	31	74	30	178	14	3.44	1.20	174
Kevin Gausman	32	71	30	179	12	3.73	1.16	197
Jose Berrios	33	80	31	190	13	3.85	1.21	194
Zac Gallen	34	136	30	166	9	4.06	1.26	178
Logan Gilbert	35	164	27	142	8	4.19	1.19	148
Charlie Morton	36	96	28	163	12	3.60	1.16	181
Alek Manoah	37	96	28	156	11	3.82	1.18	170
Patrick Sandoval	38	210	26	142	8	3.91	1.28	146
Eduardo Rodriguez	39	159	32	180	12	3.79	1.25	188

I think you have some potential aces here too in McCullers, Gausman, Manoah, Gilbert, Gallen, and Sandoval. There are upside arms all over the draft this year, but there are also very few sure-things when you're talking about starting pitchers.

This is a nice tier here, with some very cheap prices. For safety but a lack of upside - the names are Musgrove, Fried, Berrios, and Morton.

My Favorite: Pablo Lopez

My Fade: Kevin Gausman

ADP Considered Upside: Patrick Sandoval

We'll be back soon to lay down the rest of my starting pitcher rankings, thanks for checking out Part One!

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