Early 2022 Wide Receiver Sleepers - Fantasy Football Draft Values

The life of fantasy football can come at you hard and quick. It’s amazing how the landscape can change over a short period of time, specifically as it relates to individual players. One doesn’t need to look any further than Gabriel Davis of the Buffalo Bills and what his huge playoff performance has done to his 2022 value. The most dangerous thing that happens during the offseason is overcorrections.

This can happen from a one-game blowup, like Davis, or a disappointing season that didn’t go as planned, like Laviska Shenault Jr. Either way, the fantasy football community is largely overcorrecting on the outcomes of the previous season. When this happens, players become huge value plays.

The term “sleeper” doesn’t seem to exist anymore. With how many sites and analysts out there covering fantasy football, no one player is completely hiding underneath a rock because everyone is looking for that guy. Instead of looking for 2022 sleepers, we’re going to be looking for guys that have a great chance of currently out-performing their 2022 rankings. The following players currently carry a ton of value based on some severe overcorrections and I’m here to help you capitalize on these.

Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens

In a recent 2022 Mock Draft at Rotoballer, Marquise Brown went as the WR38. Over at FantasyPros, the former Oklahoma receiver is ranked at WR37. How is either of those two things possible? For starters, Brown finished as the WR23 in 2021. When we take a closer look at his season, it looks even better. In fact, kind of a lot better.

Lamar Jackson missed Weeks 14–18 and that ended up being a big blow to Brown’s fantasy prospects. When we look at what the third-year pro did in his first 13 weeks, it becomes almost impossible to believe he’s being valued as just a high-end WR4.

13.8. That’s how many points Brown was averaging per game in the first 13 weeks of the season – it ranked 12th best among wide receivers. During that time, he averaged nine targets per game and 75 receiving yards. Using his per-game averages with Jackson at quarterback, Brown was on pace for a 100 reception, 1,275 yard and nine touchdown season. Those are top-12 receiver numbers right there. Instead, he’s currently being valued as a high-end WR4. Make it make sense!

People are freaking out about Rashod Bateman coming in and becoming the alpha receiver, but based on what? Bateman’s first-round draft pedigree? Yeah, Brown’s got that same resumé. Is it Bateman’s size? Tyler Lockett had 208 more receiving yards than D.K. Metcalf. I’m not down on the former Golden Gopher, really, I’m not, but Brown is the established talent. We’ve seen what he can do and there’s no promise Brown takes that second-year leap so many are guaranteeing.

Marquise brown!!!

• WR8 in xFP this year
• 27% target share
• already on a good offence

Marquise brown is the dionate johnson of 2022

— Jakob Sanderson (RTDB) (@FF_RTDB) January 11, 2022

Still, here’s what we know. In 2021, Marquise Brown had 146 targets. Mark Andrews had 153. Devin Duvernay, Sammy Watkins, James Proche and Bateman had 184 targets between the four of them. You can lower the passing rate for the Ravens all you want, there are going to be plenty of targets between the big three for all of them to be fantasy-viable. Brown is an absolute screaming value right now and it’s all predicated on a rookie becoming a true-alpha receiver, which is obviously no guarantee.

It seems wrong talking about Brown as a “sleeper” for the 2022 season, but that’s how he’s being valued thus far. As if 2021 was a complete fluke, but he’s now commanded a 25% target share in back-to-back seasons. And don’t forget to think about what might have been had Lamar not gotten hurt because Brown was flat-out balling.

Allen Robinson, Free Agent

This largely is going to come down to what you think happened last season in Chicago. Robinson was 28 in 2021 and he’ll be 29 in 2022. Maybe, just maybe, father time has caught up to him a bit earlier than it hits other receivers. That’s certainly possible. Or maybe, the Chicago Bears’ season was doomed from the start.

Robinson was upset about having to play on the franchise tag. Matt Nagy has proven to be over his head when it comes to being an NFL head coach. The Bears’ offense used three different quarterbacks at multiple points of the season. By and large, this season was a disaster. Completely dysfunctional and it affected everyone negatively. You put all of those things together and you might just be left with a veteran who largely checked out. We don’t know that for sure, but when you take a gander at Robinson’s career, last season stands out as a gigantic outlier.

In every single season that Allen Robinson has played all 16 games throughout his NFL career, he has never seen less than 150 targets.

— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) February 16, 2022

If we look at his per-game averages from 2015–2020 we can see just how big of an outlier it was. This time span excludes his rookie season and the 2017 season when he suffered a torn ACL. In the five seasons prior, his per-game averages equate to a 154 target, 90 catch, 1,199-yard and eight-touchdown season across 17 games. That’s quite good. Quite good, indeed. When we compare that to 2021, we’re talking about a guy completely and utterly falling off a cliff. I just don’t buy that and you shouldn’t either.

The worst overall finish he’s ever had is WR41, which was his first season in Chicago and he missed three games. His worst PPG finish was WR34. In the most recent Rotoballer mock draft, he was selected as the WR32 and he’s ranked as the WR38 at FantasyPros early 2022 rankings. Based on his career averages and his current valuation, fantasy managers are able to buy him at his floor.

Another thing to consider is the environments he’s played in and the quarterbacks he’s caught passes from. Blake Bortles in Jacksonville. Andy Dalton, Mitchell Trubisky. Justin Fields, and Nick Foles in Chicago. There’s a very good chance wherever he ends up in 2022 is a significant upgrade from what he’s had the past several seasons.

Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers

The general consensus is the former Notre Dame receiver had a terrible sophomore season. That’s not exactly true. In fact, his sophomore season was essentially identical to his rookie season in every way except one – touchdowns. The table below shows his per-game averages in his rookie and sophomore seasons.

Fantasy managers can certainly be disappointed that he didn’t improve as much as maybe we all thought he would, but his game and Ben Roethlisberger’s game simply did not mesh. At all. Claypool averaged just 11.5 yards per target, which ranked 34th among receivers, but he’s at his best working as a downfield option where he can use his size and physicality to just go up and get it. Unfortunately for him and his fantasy managers the past two seasons, that’s not how Big Ben operates anymore.

His 6.2 yards per attempt were ranked 28th last season. He found himself below Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, Davis Mills, Taylor Heinicke, Baker Mayfield and well, just about everybody. His 9.6 yards per completion was dead last among qualifying quarterbacks. His intended air yards per pass attempt was 6.7 yards, which ranked 30th. His air yards per completion equaled just 4.6 yards, also 30th.

There is a very good chance that no matter who the quarterback is in 2022, it will have a positive effect on Claypool’s stats. Regardless, he’s a really good value right now. In Rotoballer’s mock draft he was the 36th receiver off the board and FantasyPros currently has him valued as the WR40. In 2020, he finished as the WR19 and was WR29 in terms of PPG. He was WR41 in 2021 and WR43 in PPG.

It’s important for fantasy managers to pay attention to what happens with JuJu Smith- Schuster, but there’s some upside to be had here if Claypool is able to take a positive step in year three with some better quarterback play that better fits his game style. That’ll be another important factor to pay attention to as the offseason continues.

Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens

It seems the general consensus is the Ravens will revert back to their very heavy run-first offense in 2022. While it would be unwise to expect Baltimore to pass as often as they did in 2021, especially with the injuries they dealt with in their backfield, it would be equally unwise to assume they go back to their 2019 and 2020 levels either. All fantasy managers heard about was how they wanted to pass more in 2021. The organization backed up those words with action by taking Bateman in the first round.

In 2021, the Ravens passed the ball 36 times per game. That was a big increase from the 26 attempts they averaged in 2020, but they averaged 29 in 2019. I would expect the Ravens to average 30–32 pass attempts a game in 2022 – while that would represent a decrease of about five attempts per game, the Ravens’ passing attack is set up to be very consolidated next season.

Mark Andrews has solidified himself as one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the NFL. Marquise Brown and Bateman are both former first-round picks. The passing offense is going to go through these three players in a big way. Last year, Brown and Andrews averaged 150 targets between the two of them, so we’ve already seen glimpses of this consolidated offense.

32 pass attempts per game would have ranked 23rd in the NFL last season, so that number would still equate to a run-heavy offense, the one Baltimore wants to implement. It also leaves room for a possible increase to a more league-average rate, but 32 attempts per game would equal around 545 pass attempts in 2022. Assuming Andrews will continue to lead the group, if we give him 135 targets, there’s still 410 left to go around. Brown and Bateman could each have 125 and there would still be 160 left to be divvied up amongst the running backs and backup level targets.

He’s currently valued as a mid-range WR4 – being drafted at WR45 in our mock draft here and ranked as WR43 at FantasyPros. If he’s able to get 115-125 targets next season, he’ll be in a good position to outplay his current 2022 ranking.

Bateman was hampered by a groin injury early in his rookie season, which caused him to miss the first six weeks off the season. It shouldn’t be surprising to see him take a second-year leap now that he’s got one season under his belt and he’ll be fully healthy throughout training camp.

Kenny Golladay, New York Giants

Okay, so I think we know enough about Golladay at this point that we can safely say he’s not the alpha receiver some fantasy managers or the New York Giants thought he was. It’s one thing to admit that and it’s another thing entirely to see him valued for 2022 the way he is right now. He was drafted as the WR53 in our mock draft and FantasyPros has him ranked as their WR58. We’re talking WR5 range right now.

His presumed target share in 2022 alone demands more respect than that. Evan Engram is a free agent and it’s likely he’s going to leave. Sterling Shepard is likely out for the majority of 2022 with a torn Achilles. This leaves Golladay fighting for targets with the likes of Darius Slayton and Kadarius Toney, not exactly much competition.

We’ve talked about the dangers of overcorrections when it comes to fantasy football, but the same is true of short-term memory. We’re already seeing this play out with the depressed value of Lamar Jackson despite him having been on pace for 4,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing prior to his injury. And we’ve seen the flip side of that with Gabriel Davis after one, albeit monstrous, playoff game. Recency bias can be just as scary.

People forget Golladay had back-to-back seasons of more than 1,050 yards in Detroit in 2018 and 2019. He actually led the entire NFL in touchdowns in 2019. While he’s never commanded the kind of target share fantasy managers dream of, he proved himself to be a very good player in his own right. Unfortunately he got hurt in 2020, his last season in Detroit, and spent last year injured and trying to catch passes from a broken Daniel Jones in an offense ran by Jason Garrett in his first season in a new system.

There’s at least some reason for optimism, however. That first starts with the new head coach, Brian Daboll. His first season as the Bills offensive coordinator came in 2018 – Josh Allen’s rookie season. With each passing year, Allen improved before taking a magical leap towards MVP status in 2020. Fantasy managers shouldn’t, in any way, be expecting that kind of leap from Daniel Jones, but could Daboll make him better? Absolutely.

His offensive coordinator is Mike Kafka who spent the past four years as the quarterback coach and passing game coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs. It’s fair to expect a better version of Daniel Jones and a more respectable Giants’ offense. That does not mean either will be “good” per se, but they’ll be better.

Based on their current weapons on the roster, fantasy managers should be assuming Golladay will be the focal point of the new Giants’ passing attack. While there was not a lot of good to take away from Golladay’s first season in New York, fantasy managers can look their eyes to the former Lions’ air yards to see some potential for 2022.

He averaged 75 air yards per game, which ranked 38th among receivers with at least five targets per game. His 30.3% share of his team’s air yards ranked 27th. He accumulated 574 unrealized air yards in 2021, which ranked 23rd. This shows a decent amount of potential if he and Jones are able to connect on more of their deep shots. To that end, a better coaching staff should help in that department.

Lowest percentage of catchable targets in 2021:

Kenny Golladay (49%)

He saw as many catchable tgts (41) as Jalen Reagor ?

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) January 21, 2022

His average depth of target was 14.1 yards, which ranked 8th and he also had a very healthy, 14.1 yards per reception average, which was 16th among receivers. Despite missing a few games and playing injured in a few more, Golladay still managed to finish with 15 contested catches, the eighth-most in the NFL. He’s also one of only two receivers with 70 or more targets to not catch a touchdown.

While his role may not provide weekly consistency, if Jones and Golladay are able to get on the same page a bit more than they were in 2021, Golladay should have enough splash plays to decently outplay his current value. I expect the new coaching additions to play a major role in the improvement we see in not only Jones’ play, but the overall offensive output.

Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

We’ve finally come to my favorite sleeper of the 2022 season, Laviska Shenault Jr. and that’s because of the insanely depressed cost of acquisition. He was WR58 off the board in our 2022 mock draft and FantasyPros is valuing him as the WR60. I am all in at that price. We’re talking WR6 price. That’s basically free.

Fantasy managers are well aware of the many issues that plagued the Jaguars in 2021, namely Urban Meyer, but he’s gone. Doug Pederson is in. What immediately comes to mind is Carson Wentz’s atrocious 2020 season, which ultimately got Pederson fired, but it would be a mistake to assume his whole tenure in Philly was a failure. In 2019, the Eagles scored the 12th-most points and amassed the 14th-most yards in the NFL. Their passing game was arguably even better. They were eighth in pass attempts, 11th in yards and 12th in touchdowns.

In 2018, the Eagles ranked seventh in both pass attempts and yards, finishing 11th in passing touchdowns. When they won the Super Bowl in 2017 in just his second season on the job, the Eagles scored the third-most points in the NFL. The offense was led by a passing attack that ranked 13th in attempts and yards and first in touchdowns. Prior to becoming the Eagles’ head coach in 2016, he spent three years working as the offensive coordinator under Andy Reid in Kansas City. It’s a pretty impressive resumé and he’ll no doubt be a massive upgrade to whatever the hell Meyer was doing last season.

D.J. Chark is currently a free agent and Marvin Jones Jr. will be 32 at the start of the new 2022 season. The Jaguars have the cap space to acquire a big named receiver, maybe even a reunion with former Jaguar Allen Robinson. If they don’t, it’s possible the third-year pro could quite literally be their No. 1 receiver next season. I wouldn’t expect that, but there is a chance. The most likely scenario is Shenault will operate as the No. 2 receiver to whatever acquisition Jacksonville makes at the receiver position.

It’s no mystery the former Colorado Buffalo has disappointed in his first two seasons. Still, we’re talking about a two-year player who has averaged 90 targets per season and just saw a 21 target increase from year one to year two. He finished with an 18.1% target share in 2021 and could see even more work next season. Based on how he’s been used his first two seasons, he’s a better target in any PPR-scoring leagues.

While fantasy managers didn’t see the year two improvement they were hopeful for, there is one big reason for some optimism – positive regression. His catch rate fell from 73.4% to 63.0%. With his low average depth of target, fantasy managers should expect a much higher catch rate in year three, one that is more in line with what he did as a rookie. The reasons for this are simple – improvement from Trevor Lawrence and fewer drops (10) for Shenault.

The other reason – touchdowns. Shenault had the most targets in the NFL without scoring a single touchdown last season. He had five as a rookie with 79 targets and finished 2021 with zero touchdowns, despite finishing with 100 targets. Fantasy managers should definitely be looking at some positive regression in the scoring department.

Factoring in a higher catch and touchdown rate with the general improvements from Trevor Lawrence and the entire Jacksonville offense, all of which feel like a given, the question is mostly how much of an improvement, Shenault becomes a very interesting sleeper for 2022.

He’s proven to be a very exciting player with the ball in his hands. He averaged 6.5 yards after the catch in 2021, which was the fourth-highest in the league. As a rookie, he averaged 5.2 yards after the catch, which ranked 12th. From the coach who brought us the Philly Special, fantasy managers should expect a bit more creativity in the Jacksonville offense in 2022. If that involves more generated touches for Shenault on jet sweeps and receiver screens, the third-year pro’s current ranking is much too low.

YAC per Target in 2021 (min. 200 routes)

1. Deebo Samuel: 6.5
2. Kendrick Bourne: 5.7
3. Freddie Swain: 5.6
4. Mecole Hardman: 5.4
5. Chris Godwin: 4.6
6. Cooper Kupp: 4.4
7. Ja'Marr Chase: 4.2
8. Jerry Jeudy: 4.0
8. Laviska Shenault: 4.0

per: https://t.co/9j1Ckzj3N7 pic.twitter.com/Kbbmi7Y1aY

— Cody Carpentier (@CarpentierNFL) January 11, 2022

Fantasy managers should be scooping Shenault up at his current price. The market has largely overcorrected itself in terms of the values associated with Jaguar players after an embarrassing 2021 campaign. The former second-rounder has shown glimpses of being a solid player despite downright abysmal working conditions in his first two seasons in the league. Assuming Lawrence takes a big step forward in 2022, which quite honestly should be the expectation given his college pedigree and the dysfunction he was forced to operate under in 2021, the passing attack in Jacksonville is being widely overlooked and that starts with Laviska Shenault Jr.

Honorable Mention Sleeper Picks: D.J. Chark, Free Agent (Rotoballer Mock Draft: WR44, FantasyPros: WR51), JuJu Smith-Schuster, Free Agent (Rotoballer: WR37, FantasyPros: WR53) Curtis Samuel, Washington Commanders (Rotoballer: WR46, FantasyPros: WR69)

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