Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Adjusting Fantasy Baseball Projections for a Delayed Opening Day


With a heavy heart I write this column. I truly wish that there would have not been a reason to write this column. Coronavirus (COVID-19) has now postponed the 2020 Major League Baseball season. In an effort to employ social distancing, local governments have made the tough call to forbid the gathering of large crowds. The NBA, NHL, PGA, XFL and NASCAR have all suspended their seasons. The NCAA tournaments have all been canceled.

And for us fantasy baseball players … major league baseball has pushed off the start of its season until least mid-May. It will likely be even longer. A lot longer. Many of our home fantasy leagues have now chosen to postpone our annual drafts or auctions. The NFBC has canceled or postponed many of its high money league contests.

But many leagues have still chosen to continue with their regular draft schedule in the coming weeks. Some of my home leagues will continue as scheduled. Just this past Sunday, I took part in the Tout Wars Head-to-Head points league. I understand the merits of postponement. It isn’t a regular year. I also understand the merits of continuing to draft this March. Grappling onto elements of normalcy has its benefits. Whichever group you're in, this article will address how to modify projections and expectations for 2020 given this past week’s rapid turn of events.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season MLB Premium Pass for 50% off. Get access to our exclusive articles, rankings, projections, prospects coverage, 15 in-season lineup tools, daily expert DFS research, powerful Research Station, Lineup Optimizer and much more! Sign Up Now!

 

Risk Management in Fantasy Baseball

For those of you who are unfamiliar with professional background – I am a certified actuary. I am a Fellow of both the Casualty Actuarial Society and the Society of Actuaries.

In a nutshell, an actuary is an insurance professional who is well versed in the mathematics of insurance. Actuaries price insurance contracts, decide on the amount of reserves that companies need to hold for claims, inform management on the ROEs of various lines of business and deal with many other assorted insurance-related tasks.

One of my goals as a baseball writer and analyst is to bring concepts found in insurance and apply them to fantasy baseball.

At the top of my mind this week is the broad concept of risk. During a fantasy draft or auction, every time that a player is acquired, the owner takes on all of the player’s skills. Power hitters will offer the ability to hit home runs. Speedsters will offer a high stolen base output. Combo players will offer a blend of the two, etc.

Simultaneously, when a player is acquired - the owner also takes on all of the risks associated with the player. Some examples of player risk include (but are not limited to):

  • Injury Risk
  • Performance Risk
  • Durability Risk
  • Age Risk
  • Experience Risk
  • Regression Risk
  • Playing Time Risk
  • etc.

Every fantasy owner will acquire players with varying degrees of a number of these risks. There are no “sure things” in baseball. Nolan Arenado has been an amazingly stable fantasy asset over the past five years. He may exhibit a low amount of risk relative to others, but there are a multitude of possible scenarios where his final achieved value could be far lower than expectations.

A typical fantasy owner should acquire a few players who exhibit high risk. Rarely is a team devoid of high-risk players. Risky players often come with a cost discount at a draft/auction commensurate with the amount of risk that the player holds. It is the job of the fantasy owner to determine which risks are correctly accounted for by the market, which are overpriced, and which risks are accretive investments.

Generally speaking, drafted players are mainly uncorrelated. Their production (and hence value) is largely independent of one another.

Suppose that you have drafted Ozzie Albies and Nick Castellanos. An injury to Albies should have zero relationship to whether or not Castellanos gets injured. Or at least, that’s the way we draft. If I draft Giancarlo Stanton – whether or not he comes back fully recovered sooner or later should have zero correlation with Trey Mancini coming back sooner or later from his cancer surgery. [We hope they both heal soon.] We assume that all players, and (more importantly) all risk types are independent from one another.

We don’t want to draft too much injury risk in the aggregate on our teams, or too much of any risk for that matter. We want just enough to give us some upside – and hopefully, we buy those players at the appropriate discounts.

 

Injury Risk

Guess what we just learned? Injury risk is not independent. Injury risk was not independent for any 2020 draft that occurred prior to this week. Not even close.

The injury risk taken on by rostering Eugenio Suarez has every bit to do with the injury risk taken on by rostering Alex Verdugo. What do I mean by that?

Provided that baseball is played in 2020, every single player who is currently injured and was expected to return sometime in the middle of 2020 – will likely earn a profit! Every single discount that a player received in drafts, will either go away completely or be severely mitigated for any going-forward March drafts.

I acquired Aaron Judge for a mere $14 in the Mixed LABR auction two weeks ago. Unless Judge is out for an extended period of time, or requires season-ending surgery – in all likelihood, this will result in a profitable outcome for me. The bet that I made on Judge – acquiring him via his injury discount – will likely pay off. In the Mixed Tout Wars auction that occurred on Saturday, Judge was acquired for $23 by Gene McCaffrey. Though there are differences in league format and value between LABR and Tout Wars, much of the price difference between the two auctions arises because of COVID-19.

Every single injured player’s value has changed in the past week. From Mike Clevinger to Michael Conforto to Aaron Judge to Adalberto Mondesi to Giancarlo Stanton to Eugenio Suarez, etc. – every single injured player’s worth has been altered … and in the same direction: Up.

Injured players were correlated. Highly correlated. Injury risk was not independent.

Had a fantasy owner stocked his team with 15 of these injury risk players (acquired at discounts) – he would theoretically now have a large excess in team aggregate value. I happen to know and play with fantasy players who constantly accumulate many injured players at discounts. They typically hope that one or two players breakout and vastly outperform their acquisition price. 2020 would be the year of striking gold for such a drafter.

Yes, I do understand that I am talking about a team profiting from the COVID-19 pandemic. No one had that intention. Once again, it is a sad situation to be even talking about any positive effects on fantasy baseball from an awful widespread disease. But as a fantasy analyst, these are the facts and we need to contemplate how to go from here.

 

How to Adjust Projections

Now onto what to do going forward. What is the best way to update our own values/rankings of players to reflect the 2020 prospective landscape?

It all starts with projections. We need to alter/update our former projections for every single player in baseball – in order to allow us to properly evaluate their value change relative to the rest of the player pool.

To this end, I’d first like to classify all players into the following categories for today’s analysis:

  • Injured Players
  • Pitchers with Innings Caps
  • Suspended Players
  • Prospects who will be called up on a certain date
  • Prospects with service time manipulation / who need more seasoning
  • Standard Players - All Other Players

There are many ways to partition the list of MLB players, but for today - I would like to illustrate how to deal with the valuation of these classes of players.

Let’s start with the easiest group – the “All Other Players.”

 

Standard Players

First off, let’s choose an estimated start date that baseball will resume. We need to come up with a best guess of the percentage of games that will be missed during the season. Will the regular season be extended in October? We need to make an educated guess based on the latest information available to us.

For today’s analysis, I will assume that:

  • June 1 will be the league’s start date.
  • There will be no additional games played in October (to keep things relatively simple).
  • Roughly one-third of the season will be missed. [I’m choosing to be optimistic.]

These are all assumptions that are almost impossible to predict. I won’t pretend to have a good idea of when MLB will commence. But let’s go with these assumptions today to help us run through the math of how to adjust projections.

Let’s call the percentage of the MLB season that will be missed the Missed%. The date that the season will be resumed will be referred to as the League Start Date. Numerically using our stated assumption:

Missed% = 33.3%

For now, let’s assume that rate stats will not differ. That is, we will assume that a player who was expected to hit one home run every 40 at-bats, will do exactly that in a shortened season.

The math goes as follows:

  • New AB = Old AB * (1 – Missed%)
  • New HR = Old AB * (1 – Missed%)
  • New SB = Old SB * (1 – Missed%)

I prefer to refer to the formulae as follows:

  • New AB = (1 – Missed%) * Old AB
  • HR = HR/AB * AB [New or Old]
  • SB = SB/AB * AB [New or Old]

Since HR & SB rates, etc. do not change post-translation – if we compute all counting stats as a function of playing time, we only need to adjust a player’s playing time. The key translation, and the math of our specific example:

  • New AB or IP = (1 – Missed%) * Old AB or IP
  • New AB or IP = 66.7% * Old AB or IP

Since we are essentially looking for a factor to apply to playing time, let’s refer to the multiplier as the Adjustment%.

  • Adjustment% = (1 – Missed%)

For all rates, it should follow that:

  • New BA = Old BA
  • New OBP = Old OBP
  • New SLG = Old SLG

There is no work to be done on any of the standard baseball averages.

 

Injured Players

As described above, all injured players will gain in value relative to the rest of the player pool. The reason stems from the fact that each projection considers zero production until the player has returned.

Let’s take Miles Mikolas. ATC projections previously projected the following:

Auction Value   IP BBI HA ER W S K ERA WHIP
4   115 21 120 52 7 0 90 4.05 1.22

The limited 115 innings projection was partially due to a forearm issue.

* Auction Values are per NFBC roster settings (15-team, 5x5 scoring)

At this time, I would like to give credit to Reuven Guy, who is my fantasy partner and is my co-host of the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitation Podcast – Beat the Shift. In real life, Reuven is an orthopedic PA. On twitter (@mlbinjuryguru), he is on top of player injuries and prognoses. Late last week, we went through all currently injured players – and determined each of their expected “comeback dates.” We put down an estimate of when they might be healthy enough to play in the major leagues.

Let’s also convert the Comeback Date into a percentage of the season that the player was supposed to miss due to injury. Here are some basic percentages that we can use:

Comeback Date InjuryMiss%
4/7/2020 4.2%
4/15/2020 8.3%
4/22/2020 12.5%
5/1/2020 16.7%
5/7/2020 20.8%
5/15/2020 25.0%
5/22/2020 29.2%
6/1/2020 33.3%
6/7/2020 37.5%
6/15/2020 41.7%
6/22/2020 45.8%
7/1/2020 50.0%

InjuryMiss% will represent the portion of the 2020 season that each player was expected to initially miss.

The key to understanding how to adjust Mikolas’s projection (for example) is the following:

115 IP = 0 IP prior to Comeback Date + 115 IP after Comeback Date

There are now two possibilities for all injured players:

1) A player’s comeback date is set on or after the league start date. [InjuryMiss % >= Missed%]

In this scenario, all of the player’s innings will be as previously projected. If Mikolas was expected to return on June 15, for example – all 115 innings would still be projected for him. In this scenario:

  • Adjustment% = 100%
  • New IP = 100% * Old IP

There is a change to this type of player’s projection. Since the rest of the league has a 66.7% adjustment factor, the player becomes far more valuable. In fact, these players will become a whopping 50% more valuable relative to the standard player (using our original June 1 League Start Date assumption).

2) A player’s comeback date is set prior to the league start date. [InjuryMiss % < Missed%]

Let’s set Miles Mikolas’s comeback date at May 1, 2020. That translates to a 16.7% InjuryMiss%.

The adjustment math is as follows:

  • Adjustment% = (1 - Missed%) / (1 - InjuryMiss%)
  • New IP = (1 - Missed%) / (1 - InjuryMiss%) * Old IP

For Mikolas, his Adjustment% would be:

Adjustment% = (1 – 33.3%) / (1 – 16.7%) = 80.0%

The 80.0% is a higher factor than the common 66.7% factor, which gives Mikolas about a 20% relative value increase over the standard player. His new IP total goes to 92, with all rate stats following suit.

New Miles Mikolas Projections:

Auction Value   IP BBI HA ER W S K ERA WHIP
6   92 17 96 41 6 0 72 4.05 1.22

 

Suspended Players

All suspended players will now LOSE value relative to others. Suspended players still have to serve punishment for the same number of games, regardless of how many baseball contests end up taking place. If for example, all MLB games are canceled in 2020 - suspended players would then have to serve their sentence in 2021, etc. They would be worth zero in 2020.

If a player was previously projected to be suspended 50% of the season, he will now be suspended for a larger part of the season. Hence, he will lose value relative to the others.

Take Domingo German as an example. His suspension was set to expire roughly in the first week of June.

Auction Value   IP BBI HA ER W S K ERA WHIP
0   76 24 72 38 5 0 82 4.47 1.26

Similar to the injured players above, it is important to understand that all of German’s projected innings occur after his Reinstatement Date.

76 IP = 0 IP prior to Reinstatement Date + 76 IP after Reinstatement Date

Let’s set Domingo German’s reinstatement date at June 7, 2020. That translates to a 37.5% SuspensionMiss%.

The adjustment math is as follows:

  • Adjustment% = (1 - SuspensionMiss% - Missed%) / (1 - SuspensionMiss%)
  • New IP = (1 - SuspensionMiss% - Missed%) / (1 - SuspensionMiss%) * Old IP

The Adjustment% is of course, subject to a minimum 0% value – the smallest amount of time that a suspended player may be able to play in a season. For injuries, the Adjustment% was never less than the standard adjustment; for suspensions - it is no greater.

Domingo German’s Adjustment% would be:

Adjustment% = (1 – 37.5% - 33.3%) / (1 – 37.5%) = 46.7%

Auction Value   IP BBI HA ER W S K ERA WHIP
-1   36 11 34 18 3 0 38 4.47 1.26

 

Pitchers with Innings Caps

There are a number of starting pitchers in the major leagues that were not projected for a full season’s worth of volume due to innings cap impositions. These pitchers might be rookies/sophomores who have not yet pitched a full season, or perhaps they might be recovering from Tommy John surgery or other health issues.

Let’s take A.J. Puk for example.

Auction Value   IP BBI HA ER W S K ERA WHIP
5   121 49 107 55 8 0 133 4.09 1.29

Projected innings for this class of player look like the following:

121 IP = 121 IP prior to Innings Cap Limit + 0 IP after Innings Cap Limit

Projections have assumed that all of the innings for A.J. Puk are frontloaded. When the season finally commences, Puk would pitch the first 121 innings, and would stop pitching thereafter.

For pitchers with innings caps, I introduce one more intermediate (but complicated) step into the process.

Without going into too many details (as this isn’t our main focus for the day) - I first generate the percentage of capacity innings that a pitcher would pitch in a full season. This is either based on organizational depth charts, on IP per start metrics, or based on skills, etc. Most starting pitchers will generally project out to 80-95% of possible capacity. Assuming that capacity is 200 IP these days, fully healthy pitchers are generally projected between 160-190 innings.

For A.J. Puk, I set his Capacity% to 80% (he would be a ~160 innings pitcher this season without team imposed innings limits).

The adjustment math is as follows:

  • Adjustment% = Capacity% * (1 - Missed%) / (IP / 200)
  • New IP = Capacity% * (1 - Missed%) / (IP / 200) * Old IP

The Adjustment% is subject to a minimum 0% value, and a 100% maximum value.

For Puk:

Adjustment% = 80% * (1 - 33.3%) / (121 / 200) = 88.0%

Auction Value   IP BBI HA ER W S K ERA WHIP
8   107 43 94 48 7 0 117 4.09 1.29

 

Prospects

Dealing with prospects is more difficult. There is no one-size-fits-all rule. Earlier in this article, I identified two classes of prospects:

  • Prospects who will be called up on a certain date
  • Prospects with service time manipulation / who need more seasoning

Prospects who will be called up on a certain date

As captioned. Treat these prospects as injured players. Assume a prior “call-up” date and substitute it as an injury return date. You will then be able to use the formulae above for injured players.

Prospects with service time manipulation / who need more seasoning

These are prospects whose organization has a monetary reason for holding the player back for some time. Perhaps keeping a prospect down some 25 days is needed to garner a year more of team control, or to push off arbitration by one season. Whatever the case may be – these prospects will be in the minors for some (fixed) set of time before coming up to the majors. Or, some prospects simply need an additional amount of fixed time in the minor leagues in order to hone their skills. No matter what the actual start date of the MiLB season, these are the players who will stay in the minors for a select time period.

Treat these prospects as suspended players. Assume a prior “call-up” date, substitute it as a reinstatement date. You will then be able to use the formulae above for suspended players.

There are many other possibilities of how one can model prospect adjustment. Hopefully, these two basic examples will cover most cases for you.

 

Limitations / Notes / Future Enhancements

In no particular order, here are a few of the limitations/simplifying assumptions of today’s article, as well as some possible variants or future enhancements:

  • The model above assumed that the season would end after September as usual. It is highly possible that the 2020 regular season (if played) would be extended well into October. That would shift/change some of the precise formulae.
  • We assumed a deterministic/static starting date for the opening day of baseball in 2020. Of course, at this point in time, we do not have a firm grasp on it. An actuarial model would pick a midpoint, assume the starting point to be variable, and run the playing time with stochastic simulations.
  • I refer to playing time in the above as at-bats for hitters. More precisely, one should be using plate appearances instead of pure at-bats.
  • I refer to IP in many of the adjustment equations above. You may substitute in plate appearances for the equivalent hitter formula.
  • One class of player not covered is the players who would be “losing their roles.” Whoever is the 5th starter in St. Louis might end up losing playing time once Miles Mikolas comes back from injury, etc. One might want to consider adjusting their projections downwards as well.
  • We assumed above that homerun rates (or stolen base rates) would be identical if the season started at any point in the year. Of course, that isn’t exactly true. HRs grow in the heat of the summer, and SB are quite variable from month to month throughout the season. Some additional adjustments would be needed to be more precise.

 

Conclusion

Hopefully, you have gained a further understanding of the types of players requiring a rankings change - which could be either up or down. Should you participate in drafts in the next few days, consider modifying your strike price for players as described above. I have guided you on the mathematics of how to adjust playing time, should you be inclined to do so on your own.

We have also seen today that injury risk is not independent from player to player. There always exists the possibility that an entire class of risk will be devalued or may collectively appreciate in a single moment. This is a crucial concept to understand. It arises far more in life than you might imagine.

Finally, I want to aid you in knowing just how much a player's value has been translated. Below is a listing of injured, suspended and innings cap players with adjusted valuations. I provide a pre and post NFBC (15-team, 5x5 roto) value for affected players.

 

Risers and Fallers, Assuming a June 1 Opening Day

Name Player Class Old Value New Value
Luis Arraez Injury 5.8 7.1
Byron Buxton Injury 9.3 12.0
Willie Calhoun Injury 3.7 9.2
Griffin Canning Injury 0.3 1.2
Carlos Carrasco Injury 14.2 15.4
Yoenis Cespedes Injury -7.6 -4.2
Emmanuel Clase Injury -2.9 -0.6
Mike Clevinger Injury 20.6 22.2
Michael Conforto Injury 17.0 18.4
Nelson Cruz Injury 19.1 20.7
Max Fried Innings Cap 13.4 13.9
Michael Fulmer Injury -3.8 -3.3
Joey Gallo Injury 17.3 18.7
Domingo German Suspension 0.5 -1.1
Cole Hamels Injury 1.0 2.1
Jordan Hicks Injury -4.0 -2.1
Rich Hill Injury 1.1 3.8
Brent Honeywell Injury -1.1 -0.8
Aaron Judge Injury 14.6 22.0
Corey Knebel Injury 0.0 0.8
Michael Kopech Injury -1.5 -1.1
Dinelson Lamet Innings Cap 11.8 13.0
Mike Leake Injury -3.4 -3.2
Sean Manaea Innings Cap 8.7 8.9
Trey Mancini Injury 0.5 12.7
Lance McCullers Innings Cap 7.7 10.2
Andrew McCutchen Injury 6.6 9.3
Brendan McKay Injury 6.4 7.2
Miles Mikolas Injury 4.2 5.7
Adalberto Mondesi Injury 20.5 24.2
Reyes Moronta Injury -6.4 -5.7
Shohei Ohtani Injury 5.8 6.5
Chris Paddack Innings Cap 20.7 24.1
James Paxton Injury 7.9 11.7
Michael Pineda Suspension 2.6 1.6
A.J. Puk Innings Cap 5.0 7.8
Brendan Rodgers Injury -15.7 -12.1
Hyun-Jin Ryu Innings Cap 12.4 12.9
Chris Sale Injury 15.1 17.4
Giancarlo Stanton Injury 15.4 18.6
Eugenio Suarez Injury 19.6 21.1
Jose Urquidy Innings Cap 9.2 10.6
Alex Verdugo Injury 8.2 10.9
Justin Verlander Injury 29.2 31.3

I wish you all safety and health in these difficult times. Hoping that baseball is back real soon …

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




eSports Premium Tools

NHL Premium Tools

RotoBaller Player News

Jakob Poeltl5 months ago

Jakob Poeltl Records Second Double-Double In Three Games
José Altuve5 months ago

Jose Altuve Will Be Absent From Wednesday’s Lineup Amid Slump
Pablo Sandoval5 months ago

Donovan Solano, Pablo Sandoval Out Of Tuesday’s Lineup
Ronald Acuña Jr.5 months ago

Ronald Acuna Jr. Scratched From Lineup Due To Injury
Blake Snell5 months ago

Blake Snell Plans To Ramp Up To Five IP Wednesday
Joe Musgrove5 months ago

Joe Musgrove Placed On Injured List With Triceps Ailment
George Springer5 months ago

George Springer Absent From Lineup For Fifth Straight Game
Ryan Braun5 months ago

Ryan Braun Returns To Lineup Tuesday Batting Fifth
Leury García5 months ago

Leury Garcia Placed On Injured List
Edwin Encarnación5 months ago

Edwin Encarnacion Returns To Lineup Tuesday
DeMar DeRozan5 months ago

DeMar DeRozan Scores Efficient 23 Points
Keldon Johnson5 months ago

Keldon Johnson Has Best Game Of Career
Seth Curry5 months ago

Seth Curry Listed As Out For Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo5 months ago

Giannis Antetokounmpo Listed As Questionable
Eric Bledsoe5 months ago

Eric Bledsoe, Donte DiVincenzo Sidelined Tuesday
Wesley Matthews5 months ago

Wesley Matthews Sitting Out Versus Washington
Daniel Theis5 months ago

Daniel Theis Will Play Tuesday
Tobias Harris5 months ago

Tobias Harris Out On Tuesday
PGA5 months ago

Sungjae Im Looks To Find Form At Wyndham
Kevin Kisner5 months ago

Kevin Kisner Heads To Carolina In Sharp Form
Paul Casey5 months ago

Paul Casey Riding Positive Momentum Into Wyndham
Russell Henley5 months ago

Russell Henley Brings Hot Irons To Wyndham
Webb Simpson5 months ago

Webb Simpson An Elite Option At Wyndham
Alex Smith5 months ago

Alex Smith Could Compete For Starting Job
Travis Fulgham5 months ago

Packers Claim Travis Fulgham
Sony Michel5 months ago

Sony Michel's Status Still Uncertain
Lamar Miller5 months ago

Patriots Sign Lamar Miller
Alvin Kamara5 months ago

Alvin Kamara Dealt With Torn Knee In 2019
Nasrat Haqparast5 months ago

Nasrat Haqparast Gets Back On Track With Win
Andrew Sanchez5 months ago

Andrew Sanchez Scores Big First-Round Knockout
Justin Jaynes5 months ago

Justin Jaynes Submitted In Third Round
Gavin Tucker5 months ago

Gavin Tucker Wins Via Rear-Naked Choke
Ryan Blaney5 months ago

Ryan Blaney Wrecked Out By Teammate, Finishes 38th
Erik Jones5 months ago

Erik Jones Fades Late, Finishes 27th At Michigan
Denny Hamlin5 months ago

Denny Hamlin Comes Up Just Short In Race Two At Michigan
Kevin Harvick5 months ago

Kevin Harvick Sweeps Michigan
5 months ago

Andreas Johnsson Activated from IR, Will Play in Game 5
5 months ago

Joonas Korpisalo Back in Net for Blue Jackets
5 months ago

Zach Werenski and Ryan Murray Both in Lineup for Game 5
5 months ago

Victor Hedman Awaiting Injury News
Austin Dillon5 months ago

Austin Dillon Crashes Late, Finishes 31st In Race One At Michigan
Aric Almirola5 months ago

Aric Almirola Struggles In Race One At Michigan
NASCAR5 months ago

Bubba Wallace Nabs Top-10 Finish At Michigan
Brad Keselowski5 months ago

Brad Keselowski Runner-Up Again At Michigan
A.J. Green5 months ago

A.J. Green Looking Explosive In Practices
T.J. Hockenson5 months ago

T.J. Hockenson Activated From COVID List
NFL5 months ago

Miami Dolphins Sign Chester Rogers
Peter Barrett5 months ago

Peter Barrett Unable To Get His First Octagon Win
Erik Jones5 months ago

Erik Jones Ends Up In 11th At Michigan
Youssef Zalal5 months ago

Youssef Zalal Wins Third Bout Of 2020
MMA5 months ago

Ali Al Qaisi Drops Debut In Very Close Contest
Irwin Rivera5 months ago

Irwin Rivera Earns Hard-Fought Decision In Opener
5 months ago

Daniel Castano Struggles A Bit In His Debut
5 months ago

Eric Hosmer Activated Off IL, Rejoins Lineup Saturday
Oakland Athletics5 months ago

Frankie Montas Sharp Again Vs Astros
Jarvis Landry5 months ago

Jarvis Landry Activated From PUP List
5 months ago

Carey Price Blanks Penguins In Series Clinching Game 4
5 months ago

Anthony Beauvillier Scores Twice As Islanders Advance To Round One
5 months ago

Auston Matthews Keeps Toronto Alive With Overtime Winner
5 months ago

Oliver Ekman-Larsson Quietly Adds to Growing Point Total
5 months ago

Darcy Kuemper Shuts the Door on Nashville, Makes 49 Saves
5 months ago

Chris Paul Leads Team in Scoring Again
5 months ago

Luguentz Dort Stays Productive
5 months ago

Ja Morant Posts 19 Points And Nine Assists
5 months ago

Jonas Valanciunas Extends Double-Double Streak
5 months ago

Dillon Brooks Scores Game-High 22 Points
5 months ago

Zach Plesac A Risky Play Saturday
Utah Jazz5 months ago

Tony Bradley Records A Double-Double Off The Bench
Utah Jazz5 months ago

Jordan Clarkson Leads Jazz With 24 Points
San Antonio Spurs5 months ago

DeMar DeRozan Remains Quiet On Friday
San Antonio Spurs5 months ago

Jakob Poeltl Ends Double-Double Drought
San Antonio Spurs5 months ago

Derrick White Scores Team-High 24 Points
Atlanta Braves5 months ago

Braves and Phillies Game Postponed Due To Weather
5 months ago

Joey Logano Will Start On The Pole At Michigan
Texas Rangers5 months ago

Joey Gallo Out Of Lineup On Friday
5 months ago

Cam Bedrosian Not Throwing Yet
Peter Barrett5 months ago

Peter Barrett Looks To Build From Contender Series Win
Jason Day5 months ago

Is Jason Day Back?
Brooks Koepka5 months ago

Brooks Koepka Will Try To Three-Peat The PGA Championship
Jordan Spieth5 months ago

Can Jordan Spieth Keep It Within The Trees?
Rory McIlroy5 months ago

Rory McIlroy Hopes To Overcome Recent Woes
5 months ago

Joey Wendle At Shortstop Tuesday
6 months ago

Mookie Betts Participates In Modified Hitting Drill
6 months ago

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Leads Thunder With 24 Points
6 months ago

Shogo Akiyama Leading Off On Friday
6 months ago

Ryan Yarbrough Looking To Keep Momentum Going Thursday
6 months ago

Travis d'Arnaud, Tyler Flowers Activated Wednesday
6 months ago

Kevin Newman Gets Day Off On Wednesday
6 months ago

Khris Davis Absent Versus Rockies
6 months ago

Ji-Man Choi Leaves Tuesday's Game Early
6 months ago

Tanner Roark Terrific In Win Over Nationals

Today’s Most Read Articles


Warning: file_get_contents(/var/www/rotoballer.com/api/trending/trending.data): failed to open stream: No such file or directory in /var/www/rotoballer.com/wp-content/plugins/php-code-for-posts/Classes/Shortcode.php(91) : eval()'d code on line 3

Warning: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in /var/www/rotoballer.com/wp-content/plugins/php-code-for-posts/Classes/Shortcode.php(91) : eval()'d code on line 6

Today’s Most Viewed Players


Warning: file_get_contents(/var/www/rotoballer.com/api/trending/trendingPlayers.data): failed to open stream: No such file or directory in /var/www/rotoballer.com/api/rbapps/includes/mlb_trendingPlayers.php on line 3

Warning: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in /var/www/rotoballer.com/api/rbapps/includes/mlb_trendingPlayers.php on line 7

More Recent Articles

 

Top 10 Fantasy Football Busts for Week 7

It's Week 7 and we are officially halfway through the fantasy regular season. With fingers crossed that the season continues to operate with minimal disruption, we can allow football to the forefront of our minds as it appears all games will be played as scheduled this week. Assuming that's the case, fantasy GMs rostering Ravens,... Read More


Booms and Busts - Starts and Sits for Week 7 Lineups

Week 6 in the NFL brought what may be one of the cleanest weeks of action to begin the season. With no catastrophic injuries affecting teams for the remainder of the year, the play on the field seemed to settle in as the more well-known players performed up to par. With big weeks from Derrick... Read More


Updated Week 7 PPR Rankings (Top 400)

Welcome to Week 7 RotoBallers. Below are our updated consensus Week 7 PPR rankings for fantasy football, including some running notes on relevant injuries, player news and rankings updates: DeSean Jackson Helped Off The Field Thursday Night K.J. Hamler Could Make His Return In Week 7 Devonta Freeman Questionable To Return Monday Night Michael Thomas Officially... Read More


Wide Receiver Snap Counts and Target Trends - Week 6 Analysis

Your wide receivers remain essential components toward your primary goal of securing league championships. As this unique regular season continues to unfold, an expanding assortment of tools is available that can provide you with an extensive level of knowledge regarding this critical position. Those results are contained in this weekly statistical breakdown of multiple categories,... Read More


Week 7 IDP Rankings, Streamers, and Notes

The big IDP news of the week happened just this Thursday morning, as our rankings were being finalized. It was pretty big news, too. Yannick Ngakoue was traded to the Baltimore Ravens! Let’s discuss just how big this news is, and whether it’s good or bad for his short and long term fantasy prospects, shall... Read More


Week 7 Fantasy Football Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings, tiers, player news and stats for Week 7 of the 2020 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings  ... Read More


Fantasy Football Trade Targets - Week 7

The fantasy trade market is always a fun one to evaluate. Articles like this are essentially glorified "Who's Hot and Who's Not" pieces but the tables are turned to where sometimes, you want to trade for those that are cold and trade away those hot. Now, six weeks into the season, we have several big-name players underperforming... Read More


Re-Evaluating the Rookie Running Back Class of 2020

We're six weeks into the 2020 NFL season and are starting to get some good ideas of what usage patterns are looking like. Which means we probably have enough data now to start to re-evaluate where certain players stand in relation to other players. For example, we've got a better idea of how this year's... Read More


WR/CB Matchups to Target and Avoid - Week 7

The CB Matchup Chart has been a helpful resource all season, specifically in Week 6. Last week's article was predictive in forecasting boom games for Julio Jones, Justin Jefferson, and Christian Kirk. It also predicted let-downs from Robby Anderson, Cooper Kupp, and Mike Evans. This week's chart will give the most accurate landscape of CB matchups yet,... Read More


Pivot Plays and Post-Waiver Pickups - Week 7

Things are starting to get difficult for fantasy football managers. Indianapolis, Minnesota, Miami and Baltimore all have the week off, so fantasy managers are already playing shorthanded. Fielding a full lineup is going to be tough as it is if you have a few injuries. If one of your key guys is listed as questionable... Read More


Week 7 Stream Team - Shallow and Deep-League Pickups

Welcome to Week 7 of the NFL season. Each week we will be providing streamer advice for all of those who need it, which is pretty much anyone and everyone. Streaming players with the best matchups each week as well as during your stud's bye weeks is an integral part of winning a fantasy championship... Read More


Lies, Damned Lies, and Fantasy Football Statistics (Week 7)

The more data we get as the season goes on, the better equipped we are to interpret matchups and make informed decisions. Then Week 6 comes along and blows it all to hell. The unpredictability of sports is what keeps us intrigued, as frustrating as it may be at times. Numbers are supposedly to be... Read More


Top 10 Fantasy Football Busts for Week 7

It's Week 7 and we are officially halfway through the fantasy regular season. With fingers crossed that the season continues to operate with minimal disruption, we can allow football to the forefront of our minds as it appears all games will be played as scheduled this week. Assuming that's the case, fantasy GMs rostering Ravens,... Read More


Booms and Busts - Starts and Sits for Week 7 Lineups

Week 6 in the NFL brought what may be one of the cleanest weeks of action to begin the season. With no catastrophic injuries affecting teams for the remainder of the year, the play on the field seemed to settle in as the more well-known players performed up to par. With big weeks from Derrick... Read More


Updated Week 7 PPR Rankings (Top 400)

Welcome to Week 7 RotoBallers. Below are our updated consensus Week 7 PPR rankings for fantasy football, including some running notes on relevant injuries, player news and rankings updates: DeSean Jackson Helped Off The Field Thursday Night K.J. Hamler Could Make His Return In Week 7 Devonta Freeman Questionable To Return Monday Night Michael Thomas Officially... Read More


Wide Receiver Snap Counts and Target Trends - Week 6 Analysis

Your wide receivers remain essential components toward your primary goal of securing league championships. As this unique regular season continues to unfold, an expanding assortment of tools is available that can provide you with an extensive level of knowledge regarding this critical position. Those results are contained in this weekly statistical breakdown of multiple categories,... Read More


Week 7 IDP Rankings, Streamers, and Notes

The big IDP news of the week happened just this Thursday morning, as our rankings were being finalized. It was pretty big news, too. Yannick Ngakoue was traded to the Baltimore Ravens! Let’s discuss just how big this news is, and whether it’s good or bad for his short and long term fantasy prospects, shall... Read More


Week 7 Fantasy Football Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings, tiers, player news and stats for Week 7 of the 2020 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings  ... Read More


Fantasy Football Trade Targets - Week 7

The fantasy trade market is always a fun one to evaluate. Articles like this are essentially glorified "Who's Hot and Who's Not" pieces but the tables are turned to where sometimes, you want to trade for those that are cold and trade away those hot. Now, six weeks into the season, we have several big-name players underperforming... Read More


Re-Evaluating the Rookie Running Back Class of 2020

We're six weeks into the 2020 NFL season and are starting to get some good ideas of what usage patterns are looking like. Which means we probably have enough data now to start to re-evaluate where certain players stand in relation to other players. For example, we've got a better idea of how this year's... Read More


WR/CB Matchups to Target and Avoid - Week 7

The CB Matchup Chart has been a helpful resource all season, specifically in Week 6. Last week's article was predictive in forecasting boom games for Julio Jones, Justin Jefferson, and Christian Kirk. It also predicted let-downs from Robby Anderson, Cooper Kupp, and Mike Evans. This week's chart will give the most accurate landscape of CB matchups yet,... Read More


Pivot Plays and Post-Waiver Pickups - Week 7

Things are starting to get difficult for fantasy football managers. Indianapolis, Minnesota, Miami and Baltimore all have the week off, so fantasy managers are already playing shorthanded. Fielding a full lineup is going to be tough as it is if you have a few injuries. If one of your key guys is listed as questionable... Read More


Week 7 Stream Team - Shallow and Deep-League Pickups

Welcome to Week 7 of the NFL season. Each week we will be providing streamer advice for all of those who need it, which is pretty much anyone and everyone. Streaming players with the best matchups each week as well as during your stud's bye weeks is an integral part of winning a fantasy championship... Read More


Lies, Damned Lies, and Fantasy Football Statistics (Week 7)

The more data we get as the season goes on, the better equipped we are to interpret matchups and make informed decisions. Then Week 6 comes along and blows it all to hell. The unpredictability of sports is what keeps us intrigued, as frustrating as it may be at times. Numbers are supposedly to be... Read More


The King's Week 7 Fantasy Football Lineup Rankings (Premium Content)

Welcome back, RotoBallers!  Below you will find my Week 7 fantasy football lineup rankings. The ranks are available in PPR, Half PPR and Standard formats. They will be updated as needed, so make sure to check back for the latest versions. Skill Position analysis is primarily based on the PPR ranks. The rankings are powered by... Read More


Slow Starters Ready to Break Out in Fantasy?

We are now more than a third of the way into the fantasy football season and a seemingly clearer picture is available across the landscape. After a pandemic-shortened offseason and lack of preseason exposure, there were plenty of worries headed into the first month specifically. Thus far, one of the most prevalent topics with regards... Read More


Fantasy Football Warning Signals for Week 7

The warning signals get brighter by the week since we have more data to work from. The larger the sample size the easier it is for us to connect the dots from the latest trends. Football is a game of small samples and many variables, making it one of the hardest sports to predict. How... Read More


How to Value Clyde Edwards-Helaire with Le'Veon Bell in KC

Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Jonathan Taylor? Coming into the season this was the biggest question for fantasy GMs, both dynasty managers who were thinking long-term and redraft managers who wanted to know who would be better for this season. There were many different theories and believe me when I say, both sides thought they were 100%... Read More


NextGen Stats - Quarterback Breakdowns and Takeaways

It's been a month since the last time we took a look at our beloved quarterbacks. Numbers are numbers, and numbers don't lie. You can twist them, but looking at them objectively, numbers say that no matter what, rushing the ball is almost always a worse option than passing it in today's game. That's why... Read More


Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Week 7

Whether due to their own play, the play of others, or injuries, players' stock increases and decreases on a weekly basis. Perhaps more than any other, the NFL is a league that experiences ups and downs at a rapid pace. With only 16 games, there’s little room for error and seemingly endless opportunities for improvement.... Read More


Coaching Matters: Offenses That Will Improve From Week 6

This series continues into its sixth week of where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value. In Week 6, we saw performances such as Ryan Tannehill throwing for 364 passing yards, the Houston Texans running backs combining for 66 rushing yards, and the New... Read More


Tape Tells All: D'Andre Swift's Week 6 Performance

Welcome to another edition of Tape Tells All. I've been thinking of rebranding as just TAPE. All-Caps like that. Probably wouldn't be a good idea for SEO purposes, right? Anyways, this week we'll be discussing Detroit Lions rookie running back D'Andre Swift. Swift set a lot of career highs this week, with bests in carries... Read More


Week 7 Waiver Wire Pickups & Adds

Week 6 was like the 2020 of fantasy football weeks. All those great matchups meant nothing, those studs let you down, and your bench likely went crazy. The good news is that we didn't have any season-ending injuries to running backs or games canceled due to COVID, so in retrospect maybe we shouldn't complain. The... Read More


FAB Bidding - Week 7 Waiver Wire Targets

Whether it's injuries, bye-week blues, or simply poor performance, we've got the waiver-wire cure...but it just might cost you! Alongside our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). In... Read More


Waiver Wire Express - Week 7 Lightning Round

Week 6 was relatively healthy and had no coronavirus delays, so let's just take a moment to bask in that. That said, we still saw Miles Sanders (knee) and Zach Ertz (ankle) go down, while Mark Ingram (ankle) has a bye to get healthy. Week 7 byes are Baltimore, Indianapolis, Miami, and Minnesota. Let's get... Read More


Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 7

Fantasy GMs are to be commended for rising to the unique challenges that have unfolded during this regular season. Injuries to critical players is an unwelcome reality that occurs every year. This is also the case for backs that were expected to operate as RB1s, but have been relegated to committees. However, this season has... Read More


Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 7

Six weeks of NFL football are behind us, aside from a pair of Monday games, including a late afternoon game between the Bills and the Chiefs. In terms of wide receiver production this week, we didn't have the huge breakouts like we had in Week 5. Chase Claypool didn't score four touchdowns. In fact, only... Read More


More Recent Articles

 

Dissecting Contact Quality In Search Of Fantasy Bargains

Of the 1,015 hitters sampled(1) between 2015 and 2019, there were only 14 instances of hitters making more productive contact against pitches outside of the strike zone than against pitches inside of the strike zone based on xwOBAcon. Based on the same sample, the average hitter was a whopping .116 points better against pitches inside... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 23rd, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 23rd, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Lineup Order Risers and Fallers: AL West 2020 Review

It’s the offseason and there are about to be a bunch of moving parts. This allows for speculation in terms of players gaining or losing playing time, moving up or down a batting order and much more. The idea here is to highlight some lineup situations for each team and some potential winners or losers... Read More


2021 1st & 2nd Year Players with James Anderson - Benched with Bubba (Episode 317)

Bubba (@bdentrek) is joined by James Anderson (@RealJRAnderson) on episode 317. The guys will go over 30+ first and second-year players. They will discuss their current ADP's in the 2 Early Mocks, what to expect of the players in 2021, and much more. They also go over some listener questions, compare Juan Soto to Mike... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 21st, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 21st, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 20th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 20th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Bubba and Bat Flip 54: 2 Early Mocks APD Player Debates - Benched with Bubba (Episode 316)

Bubba (@bdentrek) is joined by Bat Flip Crazy (@BatFlipCrazy) to take a deeper look at the 2 Early Mocks ADP. They go over some of the positions and look at players with similar ADPs and debate. Going around the diamond discussing some players people are high on and some they are down on with a... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 18th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 18th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 17th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 17th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


2021 Early Mock ADP Values & Reaches: WPC+ Videocast

Pierre Camus and Nicklaus Gaut prepare for the 2021 fantasy baseball season with a look at early mock draft results from the RotoBaller Expert mock. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller... Read More


Statcast Season Review: 2020 Barrel Leaders (Hitters)

The 2020 MLB season will always be one for the record books, even if everything that took place will have multiple asterisks attached to it. Evaluating Statcast numbers is a nice way to find hot and cold hitters, as well as underachievers and overachievers. Now that the regular season is over, let's reflect on the... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 16th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 16th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 15th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 15th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 14th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 14th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Bubba and Bat Flip 53: 2 Early Mocks APD Trends & More - Benched with Bubba (Episode 315)

Bubba (@bdentrek) is joined by Bat Flip Crazy (@BatFlipCrazy) to take a deeper look at the 2 Early Mocks ADP. They dig into trends, some interesting risers/fallers, and much more. They also go over some listener questions at the end to keep the Fantasy Baseball information coming even in the offseason. Be sure to subscribe... Read More