ADP Sleepers and Busts: First Basemen

This is the time of year when most average draft positions are generally appropriate and reasonable. We’re quickly approaching Opening Day and most players are sitting right where they should be, but there are a few value opportunities that look too good to pass up. At the same time, however, a few guys are still being drafted too high.

Be wary of the hype trains that make their way through every niche of the fantasy baseball community. They often result in ADP inflation. Identify players whose names stand out on draft boards (Ronald Acuna, Rhys Hoskins, Luis Castillo), and ask yourself if their average draft positions are justified. I would say one of those players is currently going at the right price, but don't expect a casual fantasy gamer to recognize that.

Fantasy sports are all about mining value in late rounds and free agency. Let your league’s ill-informed managers stay blinded by the light of a shiny new breakout star bound to regress. That’s your opportunity to find diamonds in the rough.

Undervalued First Basemen

These 1B are excellent value picks and should be targeted in all drafts.

Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves (ADP: 21)

He’s simply too good to pass up in the second round even though last year’s wrist injury didn’t do him any favors. He still managed to finish the year seventh in barrels per plate appearance (min. 190 batted ball events) and second among first basemen in wRC+ and wOBA. You really shouldn’t overthink this pick. Any justification for passing on Freeman is likely the result of a faulty player valuation process. He’s only 28-years-old and was having an MVP-caliber first half (.348 BA, 202 wRC+) before the wrist injury. He should be fought over in every league.

Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox (ADP: 40)

2018 will be Abreu’s fifth season in the league. Here are some things he’s never done: he’s never hit below .290, he’s never hit fewer than 25 HR, and he’s never had fewer than 100 RBI in a season. He’s also a near lock for 650+ plate appearances. Sure, he’s locked into the worst lineup in the bigs, but that shouldn’t prevent you from drafting him around pick 40. Guys like Carlos Carrasco, Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray, and Justin Upton are being drafted in that same range and it’s hard to argue that Abreu isn’t the safest pick out of that group. Pencil him in for 30 HR and a .300 BA. That’s what I call auto-pick material.

Justin Bour, Miami Marlins (ADP: 199)

Once the high-upside first basemen like Greg Bird and Josh Bell are off the board, it’s tough to find a better late-round first base option than Bour. His stock is down because the Marlins’ lineup is hot garbage, but don't get it twisted: Bour consistently produces at a high level and could end up being a top-10 fantasy first basemen if all goes right. His .270 BA, 25 HR, 80 RBI floor is the slam dunk first base value pick of the draft. While your league-mates are throwing darts at Kevin Gausman and Jonathan Lucroy in round 19, slide on in and select Bour.

Jose Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals (ADP: 258)

The 6’7” Jose Martinez needs to be an everyday player for the Cardinals in 2018. I’ve written about his mindblowing metrics before and I was stunned by how dominant he was in the second half of last season. The key for Martinez is increased plate appearances and if he receives an everyday role we could see him become the next late-breakout star. Martinez is a line-drive machine who mashes lefties and gets on base at a rate that rivals Joe Mauer and Matt Carpenter. Minor side note: he had the highest xBA in the league last year. If you like finding great last-round value, make sure you pick Jose Martinez in every league. You’ll be glad you did when he’s still on your team in September.  

Overvalued First Basemen

These 1B are currently being drafted too high or over better players.

Cody Bellinger, L.A. Dodgers (ADP: 25)

If you’ve been having trouble drafting Bellinger in the third round, I don’t blame you. He’s probably the riskiest bat going in the third round, and for that reason I’ve been fading him in most mock drafts. Of course, a 40 HR season is within his potential range of outcomes, but players like Anthony Rizzo and J.D.Martinez are stable options who won’t potentially sink your batting average. Let’s get real here, folks; drafting a 22-year-old power bat in the third round is a risk that you might not want to take. Bellinger should be easy to avoid when George Springer and Josh Donaldson are on the board. I’m thinking the fourth round is an appropriate range to target him. Good luck finding him there.

Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants (ADP: 58)

Posey shouldn’t be drafted as anyone’s primary first baseman. If you pass on first base in the early rounds, you should wait to nab Greg Bird or Miguel Cabrera in the mid-rounds. Posey offers average HR potential and declining run and RBI totals. I advise waiting on drafting a catcher if you miss out on Gary Sanchez. Posey’s first base eligibility is a nice boost to his value, but his declining production is hard to buy this early in a draft.

Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics (ADP: 123)

I wrote about Olson as a potential breakout candidate, but that doesn’t mean I can’t knock his ADP. You simply might be better off taking Greg Bird or Justin Smoak.. There are multiple first basemen going later than Olson who’ll provide similar power and more consistent contact. On top of that, there’s no way I’d draft Olson over Ozzie Albies who’s currently going at pick 124. Olson is just an intriguing young power bat who’s being drafted over better players with higher floors. I’ll pass on that every time.

More 2018 MLB Rankings and ADP Analysis