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Hey there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! If you're looking for the high-quality analysis of Joe Nicely, I hope you're not disappointed to find that I will be filling in for him this week! Joe is one of the most talented writers in the industry and one of the best people I have ever worked with - so I was thrilled when he was nominated for an FSWA award last year for his PGA content. I'm going to do my best to do his article justice as Joe always brings his A-game every week in NFL season.
The good news is if you are reading this article - or any of the other great content available here RotoBaller - you already have a leg up on the large majority of your DFS competition! Remember, everyone is playing with the same salary and choosing from the same player pool, but our research, preparation, and mindset of building tournament-winning lineups will give us a significant edge in the long run.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 6. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL throughout the course of a week, so I hope that you will drop in to check those out before finalizing your lineups. Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!
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DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 6 Picks
Joe Burrow - CIN @ DET ($6,300)
Joe is having an excellent start to his sophomore campaign and has been impressive despite coming off a major injury last season that many thought might hamper him this year. The Bengals backfield situation is a mess as Joe Mixon was just downgraded and Samaje Perine has already been ruled out. While I am sure the Bengals will still try to establish the run against a weak Detroit defense, there are going to be a lot of opportunities here for Burrow to torch a porous Lions' secondary, too. Detroit is 27th in DVOA pass defense and has allowed the second-most fantasy points per attempt to opposing QBs this year. I love Burrow in cash games or tournaments paired with a few of his talented young wideouts.
Taylor Heinicke - WAS vs. KC ($5,800)
From one elite matchup right into another - the Washington Football team and their young QB will face a 31st-ranked DVOA pass defense this week when the Kansas City Chiefs come to town. Even if you think the Chiefs handle WFT, there's plenty of reason to think that Heinicke can put up some nice numbers here with some of the talent he has around him on offense. This game stands out from the pack in a big way as both defenses have been pretty awful this season and a 55.5 point total still feels a little low. I'm comfortable with Heinicke in cash games and his rushing ability adds to his floor/ceiling as he's been sneaky good with his legs this year.
DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 5 Picks
Nick Chubb - CLE vs. ARI ($7,200)
UPDATE: Chubb was ruled out on Friday afternoon - so it's an easy pivot to Kareem Hunt here at $6,200 dollars and all the stuff I wrote below about the matchup is still true! I think Hunt will be really chalky now and a good cash option. If you're looking for a pivot for GPPs then consider Ezekiel Elliot at $7,100 in a positive matchup against New England. He should fly under the radar a bit this week despite his recent run of dominance.
I had been banging the drum on Nick Chubb for two straight weeks and I was finally rewarded last week when he went off for 161 yards on the ground and a TD. Both Chubb and Hunt had big days as the Browns ran all over the Chargers' defense last week. Both of them currently have injury designations, but neither injury sounds too worrisome and I think we see them both suit up on Sunday.
I've been doing my own line matchup ratings this year and had some major success in identifying some smash spots, especially last week when Ezekiel Elliott, Chubb, and James Robinson all stood in a big way. This matchup for the Cleveland running game looks about as good as it gets as it carries an 88% rating in my model and a 96% rating in the Pro Football Focus matchup model. With a solid total in this game, I think we should expect both offenses to move the ball well and score. With Chubb's talent and an elite O-line opening up big holes, he could have another slate-breaking type performance this week.
D'Andre Swift - DET vs. CIN ($6,300)
The Swift call here really sets up nicely for one of my favorite GPP stacks this week as I plan to pair Joe Burrow with some of his pass-catchers and bring it back with D'Andre. Listen, this price is a bit goofy considering the fact that Swift is averaging 18.2 DK points per game and leads the NFL right now in "high-value touches" which means he has more receptions + touches inside the opponents' ten-yard line than any other back in the league - including Austin Ekeler!
Swift's talent and opportunity here is something I am buying in a big way. As my fellow RB analyst Kev Mahserejian put it, the Lions have figured out exactly how to feature Swift's skillset in the most efficient way by getting him the ball in space as a pass catcher and then letting Jamaal Williams soak up a lot of the between the tackles running work. Swift isn't getting the same volume as workhorse backs, but the quality of his touches is what's most important here and this is a matchup he should be able to exploit against a middling Bengals defense.
DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 5 Picks
Ja'Marr Chase - CIN @ DET ($6,700)
Did anyone really think Chase was going to be this good this fast? There were a few analysts on him, but I think most people were taking a "wait and see" approach before investing too heavily in him. Well, I have waited and seen - and I really like what I see. He's already separated himself from Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd as the top option in this Bengals' passing attack. Joe Burrow is going to keep feeding his best player and Chase has an elite matchup this week against a Detroit secondary that has been gashed by opposing wideouts.
Pro Football Focus has Chase as a top-3 matchup this week and I'm here for it. Coming off his most targets (10) and most yardage (159), Chase's role continues to grow in this offense. The rookie has five touchdowns in five games and I think he's a smash play this week - especially with the Bengals running game being somewhat suspect (Mixon is questionable, Perine is out). Stack Chase with Burrow (and run back Swift) for all the monies!
Keenan Allen - LAC @ BAL ($6,400)
I deliberately did not include Austin Ekeler in this article because I wanted to focus on Keenan Allen as a pivot off Ekeler in the same game. Listen, this Chargers offense is legitimate. I had a lot of respect for the Browns defense coming into last week and Justin Herbert and Co. went out and dropped seven touchdowns on them without batting an eye.
Now it was the Ekeler and Mike Williams show last week, with Allen "only" getting six catches for 75 yards on nine targets. That's a floor game for Keenan and I will happily go back to him this week in what looks like a better spot against a Ravens team that has yielded the most fantasy points to opposing slot receivers in the league! The volume is there and therefore the opportunity for Allen to have a big week is still there, too. With a 32% red zone target share and only one TD catch this season, it certainly feels like he has positive regression coming there as well.
DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 5 Picks
Mark Andrews - BAL vs. LAC ($5,200)
We finally got the eruption game from Andrews last week as he posted 11 catches for 147 yards and two scores while being targeted 13 times by Lamar Jackson on Monday night. I don't think it's chasing points this week to go back to the well on Andrews as he had already been trending up before that massive game and this matchup with the Chargers should be another opportunity for Andrews to perform well.
My buddy Eric Samulski mentioned this on our YouTube show this week and he's absolutely correct. The Chargers' defense is set up to funnel production to opposing running games and the short passing game. They are a "bend-but-don't-break" style defense for a lack of a better term. We saw David Njoku post a massive game in the same spot last week and if the Chargers take away the deep ball to Hollywood Brown, then I think Lamar Jackson will be pretty content to keep feeding his stud TE in the middle of the field. Andrews is simply WAY too cheap for his upside. He's the closest thing to Travis Kelce on this slate and we can roster him for 1800 dollars in savings over the Chiefs' big man.
Ricky Seals-Jones - WAS vs. KC ($3,000)
I am falling in love with this play as the week rolls along. RSJ is dirt cheap and has a major opportunity to make some noise this week as this Washington-KC game could absolutely go nuclear. We saw him targeted nine times last week by Heinicke in his first start of the season, catching five of those balls for 41 yards.
Ricky Seals-Jones played on 99% of snaps in Week 5, running just one fewer route (42) than Terry McLaurin (43)
He got 8 targets (including 3 RZ)
The Washington Football Team plays the Chiefs in Week 5, who have allowed > 100 yards to the TE position each of the last two weeks
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) October 11, 2021
As my buddy Adam Koffler points out, he had three red-zone targets last week and now owns a 25% red zone target share on the season despite not being a full-time player until last week. This just an incredible spot for him (and for this Washington offense in general) and there may not be another player this cheap at any position with as much upside as RSJ. I have him in my cash builds right now and will most definitely be mixing him into my KC-WAS game stacks for GPPs.
Thanks so much for reading, peeps, and good luck in your contests this week! Let's break the slate and make our buddy Joe Nicely proud!
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