RADIO
Welcome to edition six of our Breakouts/Busts offseason segment. This time we'll be focusing on the outfielders who disappointed us in 2015 and likely cost a pretty penny too.
Outfielders are always a tricky situation come draft day. You see the big names in the first few rounds and feel the need to procure at least one, when in reality you can create a solid outfield rotation much later in the draft. Think A.J. Pollock, Lorenzo Cain, Kole Calhoun, and J.D. Martinez. All were guys who didn't cost a ton in March unlike the busts below.
In addition to focusing on the busts and what went wrong in 2015, I'll provide some context as to whether this a sign of things to come or an anomaly. Let's get started.
Bust Players at OF
Carlos Gomez (HOU - OF)
2015 Statistics: 477 PA, .255/.314/.409, 61 R, 12 HR, 56 RBI, 17 SB
Let's start with the one who cost the most. Gomez was drafted in the first round of almost every league and failed to live up to the price tag. It was the first season since 2011 that he failed to record at least 34 steals and he only recorded 12 homers after averaging 22 the past three seasons.
Gomez dealt with numerous injuries between Milwaukee and Houston. He injured his knee colliding with the wall in August and dealt with an intercostal strain in September. The injuries were likely a factor in his .231 second half average. He also hit an uncharacteristic .215 versus left-handed pitching (his career average is .253). Another warning sign was the 68 point drop in slugging.
There's a chance we may be seeing the decline of Carlos Gomez. He'll be 30 to start the year and saw a noticeable decline in his wheels this season. Check out his Speed Scores since 2011 below.
Carlos Gomez Speed Score from 2011-2015 (per FanGraphs)
You can attribute some of that to injury, but it's difficult to envision Gomez stealing 40 bags anytime in the near future. Steamer has him projected for .257/.317/.427 with 77/19/70/24. He'll likely bat second again to form one of the better top of the orders in baseball (Jose Altuve-Gomez-Carlos Correa) but don't let that convince you to draft him over Starling Marte come draft day.
Yasiel Puig (LAD - OF)
2015 Statistics: 311 PA, .255/.322/.436, 30 R, 11 HR, 38 RBI, 3 SB
Puig-Mania was alive and well in 2014 after improving on his debut numbers and finishing with 35.3 runs above average. Unfortunately everything to came to a screeching halt with a dreadful 2015 season. From injuries to a Dodgers bar fight this past month, nothing seemed to go right for the Cuban star this year.
It was a forgettable season for Puig and the hamstring injury in late April set his season into a tailspin, accentuated by a .198 average in July. He was back to his free-swinging ways as his K rate and O-swing % (pitches swung at outside the strike zone) both climbed. The luck he was seeing on balls in play to start his career (.369 BABIP) came to a fizzle in 2015 (.296). Puig doesn't possess game-changing speed, so the drop in average was to be expected.
There's multiple factors that will have ginormous ramifications on Puig's 2016 projections. Will he stay in LA? After the bar fight and rumors of Clayton Kershaw wanting Puig off the team, I'm not convinced he's on the Opening Day roster. Should he stay, he'll find himself at the top of the order surrounded by Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and Corey Seager. Not too shabby. Steamer has Puig projected for a .285/.359/.489 with 70/22/76/10. Look for Puig to rebound in the power department, but I think we've seen the end of Puig hitting close to .300.
Jorge Soler (CHC - OF)
2015 Statistics: 404 PA, .262/.324/.399, 39 R, 10 HR, 47 RBI, 3 SB
Cuban star No. 2 to fizzle on our list is Soler. Everyone was giddy about Soler after he joined the Cubs in August 2014, hitting .533 with three homers with seven RBI in only four games. He only hit .242 in September, but that extremely small sample size combined with his resume saw his stock skyrocket before the 2015 draft.
As you know by now, things didn't go as planned. After going into 2015 ranked as the No. 24 outfielder, he finished as the 943rd best player in Yahoo! formats. That's not bad, it's abysmal. He only played in 101 games and saw his slugging drop below .400, a horrible sign for a power hitting outfielder.
It wasn't that Soler wasn't making good contact; his 27.8% line drive rate was best among all outfielders with at least 400 PA. A sprained ankle sidelined Soler for the month of June and an oblique injury saw him miss parts of August and September. These setbacks restrained Soler from reaching his full potential. If there's a positive to his campaign it was his playoff run. He hit .474 with three HR for the Cubs in October and showed his potential when fully healthy.
His fantasy value is contingent on where Joe Maddon places Soler and Kyle Schwarber in the order (my guess is Soler bats fifth), but at this point fantasy owners will settle for a healthy 2016. He should have right field to himself in 2016 as part of a deep Cubs lineup. Look for a boost in the power department for Soler, but his health risks and poor plate discipline leave him as an OF3 for 2016.
Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY - OF)
2015 Statistics: 501 PA, .257/.318/.345, 66 R, 7 HR, 33 RBI, 21 SB
Has anyone ever benefited more from one season? Ellsbury went bananas in 2011 (.321/119/32/105/39), finishing second in AL MVP voting and setting the foundation for his seven year/$153M contract with New York.
To no surprise, aside from stolen bases, he hasn't sniffed those numbers since that magical year. In 2015, Ellsbury set career-lows in average, slugging, wOBA, wRC+, and ISO. Want some more disturbing stats? He set a career-high in strikeout percentage, O-Swing percentage, and swinging strike percentage.
Ellsbury was actually having a strong campaign until a knee injury in June. The first two months: .325 AVG, 29 R, 14 SB. Injuries have always been a factor with Ellsbury, and it's for that reason he cannot be trusted with a high draft pick. Steamer has him projected for .264/.323/.396 with 80/14/61/28. Put me down for the under in the home run department. Let someone else gamble on Ellsbury and settle for Adam Eaton later in your draft.
Marcell Ozuna (MIA - OF)
2015 Statistics: 494 PA, .259/.308/.383, 47 R, 10 HR, 44 RBI, 2 SB
One of the more interesting subplots in the 2015 season was the Marlins handling of Marcell Ozuna.
Ozuna was sent down to Triple-A New Orleans although there was no injury reported to the media, leading many to believe the move was more personal than strategic. You don't just demote a plus-defender with 25+ homer potential. When the Marlins manager continued to play Ozuna against owner Jeffrey Loria's wishes, he was sent packing. The likely culprit in this ordeal is Ozuna's unwillingness to sign a team-friendly extension, and it'll likely lead to Ozuna wearing a different uniform in 2016. Check out the tweet below.
"I'd be surprised if they keep him,'' one exec said of Ozuna. "Loria clearly can't stand the guy and everybody knows it." #Marlins
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) November 20, 2015
As for Ozuna's actual production, he continued to be the same hitter he was in 2014; a free-swinging power hitter who uses all fields. His poor plate discipline makes him a poor option for OBP-leagues, but he's still a strong candidate for 20 HR if he has an every-day position.
The Mariners are the current favorite to land Ozuna, which would put him in a lineup surrounded by Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano. Sure, those guys aren't Giancarlo Stanton, but the emotional well-being of not playing for Jeffrey Loria should outweigh that loss. Seattle actually was a worse park for hitters than Miami in 2015 according to ESPN's MLB Park Factors, which makes Ozuna no more than a OF3/4 for standard leagues. Should he go elsewhere, we'll address the ramifications at a later date.
MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room
[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]
