RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 85
CURRENT ADP: ~100 overall
ANALYSIS: It seems like Correa has been around forever, so it may come as a bit of a surprise that he's only 27-years-old and entering the prime of his career. With six years of Major League Baseball experience heading into last season, it's clear that Correa is evolving as a player and made some obvious changes in his approach last year. There is no better way to identify his improved contact profile than to see that he was in the 74th-percentile in all of baseball in terms of contact rate after never finishing above the 56th-percentile in any other season and spending most of his years under the 40th-percentile. Not only did his patient approach lead to more contact but it led to a better quality of contact. His barrel rate jumped up to 9.4% and he also nearly doubled his rate of barrels hit over 100 mph.
Yet, despite all of these gains, I still think there is growth for Correa. He showed in 2019, when he hit 21 home runs in just 75 games, that there is another level to his power. He came close to unlocking that in the first half of the season, hitting 16 home runs in 82 games, but in the second half of the season, we saw his launch angle decrease to 10.9-degrees and his pull rate fall to just over 32%, which led to more live drives and fewer home runs. However, his groundball rate continues to come down and his exit velocity on balls in the air continues to improve, so I think there is some upside for Correa to push 30 home runs this year. He may no longer be a stolen base option (and really hasn't since 2016), but if he can hit .275 with 30 HRs and 190 RBI+Runs, that's great value at his current ADP.
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