Champ or Chump: Zach McKinstry

It seems like the young MLB season isn't producing as many random breakout stars as it usually does. Tyler Naquin had one huge game, but he isn't even playing every day. Akil Baddoo is a nice story for Detroit, but his OBP is below .300 and he's in a platoon. Where is Keven Maas when you need him?

Zach McKinstry is cut from the same cloth. He is off to a scorching hot start, slashing .319/.353/.617 with three long balls already. By being a Dodger, he's getting press and a reasonable amount of fantasy attention with a 42% roster rate in Yahoo! formats. However, scouts didn't care for the 33rd round pick and at age 25, he's not exactly young. His scouting grades don't jump off of the page and he lacks any kind of carrying fantasy skill in our game. His MiLB resume is underwhelming at best.

Most importantly, the Dodgers don't seem to think of him as an everyday guy. Quite frankly, there's no reason for McKinstry to be on so many fantasy rosters. Here's why.

Pedestrian Scouting Reports

When fantasy managers roster prospects, they want skills they can dream on. The scintillating speed for 50 bags. Light-tower power that lights up Statcast and your highlight package of choice. Insane contact skills that make a .300 average seem like a certainty. McKinstry offers none of these things.

Here is what McKinstry does offer, per his MLB.com scouting grades:

We see a plus fielder who can run a little, but the actual report says that his speed "doesn't translate to stolen bases." His hit tool is merely average, which is more than you can say for his below-average pop. His overall grade of 45 suggests a future as a bench piece, a conclusion that nearly every part of his profile points toward.

Let's get a second opinion by taking a look at his FanGraphs scouting grades:

Honestly, this one is worse. His hit tool is still average, but his raw power and game power are below-average both now and in the future. The speed is still there, but it probably won't lead to steals and fantasy managers don't care that much about defense. Based on these reports it's safe to conclude that McKinstry doesn't offer league-winning upside.

Meh Minor League Numbers

Some players make up for middling raw skills with baseball acumen that allows them to be significant contributors in both MLB and fantasy baseball. Unfortunately, McKinstry doesn't have a history of that either. He got cups of coffee with Double-A (Tulsa) in both 2017 and 2018 but didn't hit that well in either. In 2017, he hit .256/.356/.333 with no homers or steals in 45 PAs. He was somehow worse in 2018, slashing .193/.230/.313 with two homers and zero steals in 87 PAs. Both are small samples but neither is encouraging.

McKinstry finally got an extended opportunity at Tulsa in 2019 and his performance could best be described as fine, with a .279/.352/.455 triple-slash line with 12 homers and eight steals over 384 PAs. The steals are exciting, but they came attached to eight CS and a 50% success rate that's never going to fly with the analytical Dodgers organization. Likewise, neither his 36.1 FB% nor his 12.5% HR/FB suggests much potential for power growth. Tulsa was in the 70th percentile for homers among MiLB ballparks in 2019 according to Baseball America, so McKinstry may have had help as well.

The Dodgers decided to give McKinstry a shot at Triple-A (Oklahoma City) to close out the year and he raked to the tune of a .382/.421/.753 line with seven homers in 95 PAs. Oklahoma City is in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, and 2019 was the year that the introduction of the new ball made every park into Coors Field. Oklahoma City was no exception, having a HR factor in the 89th percentile and a BABIP factor in the 91st percentile. As such, it's difficult to take McKinstry's .422 BABIP or 25% HR/FB seriously given everything else in his profile.

McKinstry spent most of 2020 at the alternate training site where we have no idea how he did. He did debut with the Dodgers, but the sample was far too small to draw any conclusions from. Overall, McKinstry's MiLB numbers are largely what his scouting report would suggest.

The Heir to Kike Hernandez

McKinstry might be a worthwhile fantasy add if we thought the Dodgers were all-in on him, but that doesn't seem to be the case. He played six different positions in the minors during the 2019 campaign, rating as a plus defender at his natural second base position, passable at third, and fringey at SS and in all three outfield spots. That sounds like they're thinking "future utility guy" more than "future star."

Both Cody Bellinger and Gavin Lux are currently out with injuries, and McKinstry still hasn't hit any higher than sixth in the packed Los Angeles lineup. He's also in a platoon per RosterResource despite the missing bats, suggesting a strict bench role if the team ever gets completely healthy. Kike Hernandez plays for the Boston Red Sox now, and it seems that his old role could be McKinstry's future.

In conclusion, McKinstry will probably be a nice bench piece for the Dodgers with his plus athleticism and ability to take a professional plate appearance. However, he's unlikely to have a starting role and probably wouldn't produce fantasy-friendly numbers if he somehow found one. Chris Taylor is the primary utility guy on that team, so at least two injuries are required to give McKinstry any sort of extended opportunity. There are much better players to roll the dice on, making McKinstry a Chump.

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