RADIO
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
One team that kept its coaching staff intact was the Atlanta Falcons. Arthur Smith will serve as the head coach, Dave Ragone as the offensive coordinator, and Dean Pees as the defensive coordinator once again in 2022-2023.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Falcons players' fantasy values in it.
The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Falcons coaches help bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Falcons' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
| 2021 League Average | 34.40 | 244.13 | 1.54 | 3.99 | 17.36 | 0.18 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
|
2021 League Average
|
21.66 | 92.20 | 0.69 | 4.82 | 6.22 | 36.36 | 0.19 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
|
2021 League Average
|
12.45 | 19.75 | 155.55 | 0.96 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
|
2021 League Average
|
4.77 | 6.93 | 50.44 | 0.37 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 2020 League Average | 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
| 2021 League Average | 23.0 | 228.3 | 115.2 | 63.3 | 5.4 | 1.3 |
2022 Offense
2022 Head Coach: Arthur Smith
Arthur Smith served as the Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator for two seasons prior to becoming the Atlanta Falcons head coach. Let's take a look at the performance of Smith's offenses over the course of his 32-game career as the Titans' offensive coordinator to see if we can get some insight into what kind of offense he plans on running with the Atlanta Falcons in 2021.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2020 Titans | 16 | 30.31 | 239.13 | 2.06 | 3.13 | 17.25 | 0.44 |
| 2021 Falcons | 17 | 33.71 | 234.53 | 1.18 | 2.53 | 5.18 | 0.06 |
| Smith's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 49 | 30.73 | 240.18 | 1.67 | 3.27 | 13.84 | 0.24 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2020 Titans | 16 | 28.94 | 149.31 | 1.13 | 2.13 | 3.31 | 12.56 | 0.13 |
| 2021 Falcons | 17 | 20 | 78.24 | 0.59 | 5.94 | 8 | 49.41 | 0.35 |
| Smith's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 49 | 23.90 | 112.12 | 0.90 | 3.63 | 5.02 | 28.80 | 0.22 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Titans | 16 | 11.44 | 16.88 | 163.69 | 1.19 |
| 2021 Falcons | 17 | 9.35 | 14.71 | 102.12 | 0.53 |
| Smith's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 49 | 10.47 | 15.82 | 141.35 | 0.92 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Titans | 16 | 5.88 | 8.63 | 60.44 | 0.75 |
| 2021 Falcons | 17 | 6.35 | 9.29 | 79.71 | 0.29 |
| Smith's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 49 | 5.67 | 8.22 | 66.73 | 0.49 |
2022 Offensive Coordinator: Dave Ragone
The 2021 season with the Atlanta Falcons was the first time that Dave Ragone had ever worked as an offensive coordinator at any level. Prior to joining the Falcons, he previously spent time at the NFL level with the Tennessee Titans (2011-2013), Washington Redskins (2015), and Chicago Bears (2016-2020) in a variety of position coaching roles. Below are some statistics from Ragone's time as an offensive coordinator (one season).
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2021 Falcons | 17 | 33.71 | 234.53 | 1.18 | 2.53 | 5.18 | 0.06 |
| Ragone's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 17 | 33.71 | 234.53 | 1.18 | 2.53 | 5.18 | 0.06 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
| 2021 Falcons | 17 | 20 | 78.24 | 0.59 | 5.94 | 8 | 49.41 | 0.35 |
| Ragone's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 17 | 20 | 78.24 | 0.59 | 5.94 | 8 | 49.41 | 0.35 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2021 Falcons | 17 | 9.35 | 14.71 | 102.12 | 0.53 |
| Ragone's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 17 | 9.35 | 14.71 | 102.12 | 0.53 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2021 Falcons | 17 | 6.35 | 9.29 | 79.71 | 0.29 |
| Ragone's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 17 | 6.35 | 9.29 | 79.71 | 0.29 |
Arthur Smith and Dave Ragone Takeaways & Expectations
Arthur Smith is expected to be the primary play-caller for the Atlanta Falcons and Dave Ragone has only officially worked as an offensive coordinator under Smith, so we will primarily be talking about the offense that Arthur Smith has liked to run over the course of his career in this section.
Over the course of Arthur Smith's 49-game career as an offensive play-caller, his offenses have averaged 30.73 passing attempts per game – which is well below average. With his starting quarterback either being Marcus Mariota or Desmond Ridder, it's unlikely that he deviates too far from his career averages and we once again see a below-average number of passing attempts from the Falcons in 2022.
Besides passing, it's also important to pay attention to the amount of rushing work a quarterback receives since it can give your quarterback a higher ceiling in fantasy leagues. Over the course of his career, Smith's quarterback room has averaged 3.27 carries per game.
Arthur Smith's previous quarterbacks have carried the ball around the league average mark when he was in Tennessee, but last year with the more immobile Matt Ryan he had his offense dial it back. This year, he'll have Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder who are both fairly mobile so we should expect there to be a return to a more league-average level in the rushing department. Overall this QB room is one of the least talented ones in the league on paper, so we should expect them to be more in the streamer range for your fantasy league(s) with Arthur Smith calling the plays.
Examining Arthur Smith's running back rooms over the course of his 49-game career as an offensive coordinator or head coach, his running back room has averaged 23.90 carries, 112.12 rushing yards, and 0.90 rushing touchdowns per game.
It would be easy to say these career averages are all above average so therefore we should expect an above-average number of carries for the Falcons' backs in 2022, but it's a little more complicated than that. When Arthur Smith was in Tennessee, his offense had one of the best running backs in the league – Derrick Henry. The Falcons have not had a running back anywhere close to this caliber in the time that Smith has been a head coach, which is why the team averaged just 20 running back carries per game in 2021. With a running back room of Cordarrelle Patterson, Damien Williams, and Tyler Allgeier going into the 2022 season, it's likely that this usage is closer to the 20 carries per game that we saw a year ago than Smith's career averages.
Besides the pure number of carries, we also need to consider the distribution of carries – how often is Smith feeding one back on the ground versus rolling with a running back by committee approach?
Looking at the graph above, Arthur Smith greatly preferred to feed one back on the ground than roll with a committee during his time in Tennessee (because he had Derrick Henry), but went to more of a running back by committee approach in 2021 with the Falcons. We should probably expect the running back by committee approach once again from Smith's offense based on the players on his roster.
The final aspect we should look at regarding Arthur Smith's running backs is how much he has traditionally utilized them as pass-catchers. Over the course of his career, Smith's running back room has averaged 5.02 targets per game.
This is one of the lower career marks among active offensive play-callers, but it's not all bad. In fact, Smith actually had his team feed his running backs at an above-average rate during the 2021 season with eight targets per game. Overall, Arthur Smith's running back usage has done a complete 180 since joining the Atlanta Falcons. Going into the 2022 season, there's a good chance that he sticks with a similar strategy as the 2021 season and goes with the hot hand approach at running back (with Patterson getting the first crack at it). Overall, this doesn't look like the best backfield to invest in on paper, but Arthur Smith will play to their strengths and give whoever ends up being the lead back a good chance to outperform pre-draft expectations.
Looking to the wide receiver position, in his 49-game career as an offensive play-caller, Smith has provided his wide receivers with just 15.82 targets per game.
This usage is well below the league averages we've seen the last few years. Overall this is not what you like to see if you are rostering one of the Atlanta Falcons wide receivers and there's a good chance there's only room for one to be fantasy-relevant...likely 1st round pick Drake London.
Lastly, Smith's historical usage of his tight ends in the passing game has been very encouraging. In his career as an offensive play-caller, Smith's tight end room has averaged 8.22 targets per game.
This tight end usage is really encouraging to see, with 26.76% of Smith's overall passing attempts going to the tight end position during his career as an offensive play-caller. Kyle Pitts should be one of the first tight ends off the board in your fantasy league(s) regardless of format and has a very real shot to finish as the top-scoring fantasy tight end in 2022.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, Cordarrelle Patterson, Damien Williams, Tyler Allgeier, Jeremy McNichols, Drake London, Olamide Zaccheaus, Bryan Edwards, Kyle Pitts, Auden Tate, Damiere Byrd, Kyle Pitts, and Anthony Firkser
2022 Defense
2022 Defensive Coordinator: Dean Pees
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2019 Titans | 16 | 20.69 | 255 | 104.5 | 66 | 5.45 | 1.44 |
| 2021 Falcons | 17 | 27 | 232.47 | 131.88 | 65.53 | 5.56 | 1.18 |
| Pees's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 209 | 20.20 | 222.56 | 106.61 | 62.70 | 5.25 | 1.55 |
Dean Pees joined the Atlanta Falcons as a defensive coordinator in 2021 after taking a year off from football. He's previously worked as a defensive coordinator for the New England Patriots (2006-2009), Baltimore Ravens (2012-2017), and Tennessee Titans (2018-2019). Below are some defensive statistics from Pees's time in a defensive coordinator or head coaching role.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: Marquice Williams - Marquice Williams has been the Atlanta Falcons' special teams coordinator since 2021. He previously worked as an assistant special teams coach with the Detroit Lions (2019-2020) and has also spent time coaching in a variety of roles for the Chicago Bears (2013-2014), Detroit Lions (2015), and San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers (2016-2018).
QB Coach: Charles London - Charles London will enter his second year as a quarterback coach with the Atlanta Falcons. At the NFL level, he has previously spent time as the Chicago Bears' offensive quality coach (2007-2009), an offensive assistant for the Tennessee Titans (2011), a running backs coach for the Houston Texans (2014-2017), and as a running backs coach for the Chicago Bears (2018-2020).
RB Coach: Michael Pitre - One of the few coaching positions that the Atlanta Falcons will be making a change at is running backs coach as the team goes from Desmond Kitchings to Michael Pitre. Pitre has been coaching since 2008 and at the NFL level since 2021. At the NFL level, he previously served as a running backs coach for the Chicago Bears (2021).
WR Coach: T.J. Yates - The other coaching staff change for the Atlanta Falcons will be with their wide receivers coach as the team goes from Dave Brock to T.J. Yates. Prior to joining the Falcons in 2021 as a passing game specialist, Yates worked as an offensive assistant (2019) and as an assistant quarterbacks coach (2020) for the Houston Texans. He also played quarterback in the NFL for the Houston Texans (2011-2013, 2015, 2017), Atlanta Falcons (2014), and Miami Dolphins (2016)
TE Coach: Justin Peelle - Justin Peelle became the Atlanta Falcons tight ends coach in 2021. As a coach, he previously spent time with the Philadelphia Eagles as an assistant tight ends coach (2013-2014) and as the tight ends coach (2015-2020). He also played tight end in the NFL for the San Diego Chargers (2002-2005), Miami Dolphins (2006-2007), Atlanta Falcons (2008-2010), and San Francisco 49ers (2011).
OL Coach: Dwayne Ledford - 2021 was Dwayne Ledford's first year coaching at the NFL level. Prior to joining the Falcons, he had previously been an offensive line coach at the college level for Tennessee State (2010), Gardner-Webb (2011), Appalachian State (2012-2015), NC State (2016-2018), and Louisville (2019-2020).
DL Coach: Gary Emanuel - Gary Emanuel has been coaching since 1981, but 2022 will be his second year with the Atlanta Falcons. At the NFL level, he has previously been a defensive line coach for the San Francisco 49ers (2005-2006), Indianapolis Colts (2012-2017), and the New York Giants (2018-2019).
LB Coach: Frank Bush - Frank Bush has been coaching in the NFL since 1993. He's worked in a variety of roles over the course of his career but has specifically been the linebackers coach for the Houston Oilers (1993-1994), Denver Broncos (1995-1999), Arizona Cardinals (2004-2006), Tennessee Titans (2011-2012), St. Louis/Los Angeles Rams (2013-2016), and Miami Dolphins (2017-2018). He also served as the New York Jets interim defensive coordinator last year after Gregg Williams was fired.
OLB Coach: Ted Monachino - Ted Monachino joined the Atlanta Falcons in 2021. At the NFL level, he's been a defensive line coach for the Jacksonville Jaguars (2006-2009), an outside linebackers coach for the Baltimore Ravens (2010-2015), a defensive coordinator for the Indianapolis Colts (2016-2017), and an outside linebackers coach for the Chicago Bears (2019-2020).
Secondary Coach: Jon Hoke - Jon Hoke joined the Atlanta Falcons coaching staff in 2021, but has been coaching football since 1992. At the NFL level, he's been a defensive backs coach for the Houston Texans (2002-2008), Chicago Bears (2009-2014), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2016-2018).
Enjoy this series? Be sure to check out all of the other 'Coaching Matters' team previews!
AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals
AFC South: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders
AFC East: Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, New York Jets
NFC North: Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings
NFC South: Carolina Panthers
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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