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The preseason predictions for many "experts" have been thrown out the window as we enter Week Nine. Prior to the year, I identified what is a likely 7-1 performance on our preseason win totals article, with three of the wins already cashing. While not every pick turned out great, we did point out the emergence of Western Kentucky quarterback Bailey Zappe in our breakout daily fantasy players article - Zappe leads the nation in passing yards. And after another dominant performance in a program-defining victory over Clemson, our pick of "Kenny Pickett for Heisman" in the preseason Heisman betting picks article sure is looking like a good wager at +25,000 odds. Advancing into the second half of the year, we'll see what contenders can separate themselves from the pretenders.
Week Eight brought about a 2-1 record with none of the three games even coming close. South Alabama and Louisiana-Monroe's non-functional defenses gave us the sole loss of the week by crushing the total. Down in Oxford, Mississippi, both Ole Miss and LSU's offenses never quite got going as the under cashed by three scores. Lastly, down in Blacksburg, Syracuse walked away with the upset as the Orange and the Hokies combined for 77 points, crushing the over. The season-long record is 15-13.
For Week Nine of the college football season, here are some expert money-line and over/under betting picks.
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North Texas @ Rice (-2.5)
O/U: 57
At one point in time, coach Seth Littrell was considered a top up-and-coming coaching prospect that would surely get a chance at a Power Five program. The former Oklahoma running back hasn't gotten the call-up, and has a middling program now in his sixth season in Denton, Texas. The Mean Green will be moving up to the AAC, as their Denton metro area home is a burgeoning location with immense recent growth. On the field, the Mean Green still have not beaten an FBS program, but are showing signs of life on offense with inspired performances against Missouri, Marshall and Liberty in their last three games. Former UNC transfer Jace Ruder never got much traction at quarterback to start the year, and has given way to Austin Aune - a gunslinger with a propensity for throwing aggressive interceptions but whose had much more success. The team will go as far as fourth-year starter and super senior Deandre Torrey leads them, as the 5-foot-7 diminutive running back has 947 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns over his first seven games. The defense has yet to make much of an impact, allowing 35 points per game, good for 119th in the nation.
Situated in a recruiting hotbed in Houston, the Rice Owls were a natural selection for the AAC to backfill its conference. The performance on the field has been lackluster for the most part, but the Owls notched a massive road win as a 24-point underdog last week in Birmingham. The quarterback position has been a hodgepodge position for coach Mike Bloomgren amidst the 3-4 start, as former Weber State signal-caller Jake Constantine, former Nebraska quarterback Luke McCaffrey, and holdover Wiley Green have all gotten significant playing time. Green got the call against UAB, and excelled with three touchdowns through the air. Coach Bloomgren's team has struggled badly with the defense allowing 37.4 points per game (124th in the country) and only holding an opponent below 20 points once.
Two poor defenses with offenses that have recently shown signs of life is a bad formula for the under. I expect North Texas to stay competitive with a Rice team that's looked awful all season until last week's shocking victory.
Pick: Over 57 / North Texas money line (+120)
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Miami (Fl.) at Pittsburgh (-9.5)
O/U: 61
Coach Manny Diaz may have saved his own skin with last week's big 31-30 victory over North Carolina State. The offense is clicking at the right time under quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, who took over after D'Eriq King's season-ending injury. Van Dyke's thrown for nine touchdowns and only three interceptions, looking better and better each week. Out of the backfield, Cam'ron Harris and Jaylan Knighton combine to form an imposing duo that's garnered 903 total yards and eight touchdowns thus far. Receiver Charleston Rambo, a transfer from Oklahoma, leads the way with 44 receptions, tight end Will Mallory is an imposing threat, and slot receiver Mike Harley surprisingly spurned the NFL last year and is always a threat to make a big play. The Hurricanes' chief issue, however, is a defense that has played far below its talent level. With the news that safety and leading tackler Bubba Bolden is done for the year, the unstable unit takes yet another big hit. An underrated strength for this team has been freshman kicker Andres Borregales, who replaced his brother this year and has made 9-of-12 field goals this year.
Coach Pat Narduzzi's Pitt Panthers earned a convincing victory over Clemson last week to further cement their strong position atop the ACC Coastal. Led by Heisman hopeful Kenny Pickett at quarterback, the Panthers took a 27-17 lead over Clemson, and then successfully chewed up nearly nine minutes off the clock in the final quarter to close the game out. Against a more potent Miami offense, the Panthers will probably need to force more scoring opportunities. With a scoring average of 45.3 points, Pitt sits in fourth place out of the 130 FBS programs. Pitt does havetwo major injuries to monitor throughout the week - leading receiver Jordan Addison (39 receptions, 670 yards, 10 touchdowns) and starting running back Israel Abanikanda (403 rushing yards, four touchdowns) both suffered concussions in the win over the Tigers and are questionable for Saturday. Luckily, Narduzzi's offense is arguably the best and deepest that he's had at his disposal now in his seventh year in charge at Pitt.
This game has a classic "trap" labeled all over it for Pitt. With a 6-1 record and new national recognition, Pitt holds a two-game lead on their division and is now the betting favorite to win the ACC. The defense has been solid, but is still very susceptible to the big play due to the man-press coverage that Narduzzi employs leaving his cornerbacks on islands. Even if Addison and Abanikanda are unable to go, Pickett's shown that he is a legitimate Heisman contender and he has plenty of other offensive options to keep the team churning.
Pick: Over 61
Missouri at Vanderbilt (-16.5)
O/U: 63.5
Sophomore quarterback Connor Bazelak is the engine that takes Missouri forward, with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions. In Missouri's four losses, Bazelak has thrown all seven of his interceptions and only five touchdowns. Meanwhile in the wins over Central Michigan, Southeast Missouri and North Texas, Bazelak has cruised. Yet to defeat a decent team, bettors are right to be wary of this Tigers team. Bazelak's backfield mate Tyler Badie idly waited for three years for his chance behind Larry Rountree, and now has over 1,000 yards through a mere seven games. Nine different receivers have made double digit receptions so far. Coach Eli Drinkwitz's 3-4 start is disappointing, but luckily with remaining games against Vanderbilt and South Carolina, the Tigers could get to bowl eligibility by sneaking out an upset win over one of Georgia (lol), Florida or Arkansas.
The Vanderbilt Commodores' season cannot end soon enough for first-year coach Clark Lea. After coming over from a stint as the defensive coordinator at Notre Dame, coach Lea's team opened with a loss to FCS team East Tennessee State, but have earned wins over Colorado State and UConn in what has been an otherwise disappointing year. Since September 19, the team has scored zero points twice, and six points in an embarrassing 45-6 home loss last week. Sophomore quarterback Ken Seals has experienced a serious sophomore slump (five touchdowns, seven interceptions, and 55.3% completion percentage), but that's unclear how much is his fault and how much should be attributed to his poor supporting cast. Running back Rocko Griffin only averages 3.3 yards per carry, the team loses a fumble nearly every game, and averages collectively 291 yards per game, positioning themselves as the worst scoring offense in football. The defense has shown some signs, with Anfernee Orji and Jalyen Mahoney's presence in the backfield being felt all season, but being on the field so much has caused them to surrender quite a few points. The rebuild needs at least another year, but coach Lea's young playmakers on defense should have him excited for the future.
Games against the Vanderbilts, UConns, and New Mexico States of the world should be considered as an opportunity for Missouri to get the backups and walk-ons some playing time, and to give the offensive line and running game some momentum leading into their November 6 matchup at #1 Georgia. The nucleus is young, with Bazelak back next season and a five-star receiver recently committing to Missouri, so the building blocks are there for Drinkwitz's program.
Pick: Under 63.5
Bonus Pick: Virginia Tech money line (+160) @ Georgia Tech
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