Connelly Doan's Bold Predictions for 2021

Welcome to the 2021 fantasy baseball season everybody! Spring Training is in full swing and fantasy drafts are well under way. One of the most satisfying things throughout the season (and in life in general) is to be right, especially when others don’t agree with you. Of course, putting your contrarian opinions out in the world can backfire when you are incorrect.

Last yeareries was my first participating in RotoBaller's bold predictions series; looking back, I would say I got roughly half of my predictions correct and got the other half brutally incorrect!

I’m back again to make some interesting takes without being too outlandish. My goal is to cover a bunch of positions and categories in the hopes of providing thought-invoking predictions with some fantasy relevance. Hopefully, these can help you roll the dice in your leagues and win some calculated risks this season. With that said, it’s time to fire away.

Madison Bumgarner will be at least a Top-100 Pitcher

This first pitcher has really fallen out of standing with fantasy players. Madison Bumgarner, once a top fantasy starter, had his worst season in 2020 with the Diamondbacks, posting a 6.48 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and 15.8% strikeout rate. He also seemed to lose fastball velocity, averaging just 88.4 MPH. His current ADP of 375 (pitcher 134) indicates how little fantasy players now think of him, but I think this is a great opportunity to steal a valuable fantasy player.

Before even getting into any numbers, I think MadBum should be given some slack due to his track record. Excluding last season, which was definitely an odd/different one, Bumgarner has a career 3.13 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 23.9% strikeout rate. These are stats of a higher-tier fantasy starter. Further, Bumgarner showed that he was fully healthy in 2019, when he posted a 3.90 ERA over 207 ⅔ innings pitched. At age 31, he likely won’t perform to the level he once did, but Bumgarner would be a valuable back-end starter for fantasy players if he can put forth a high-3/low-4 ERA over 170 IP in 2021.

Daulton Varsho will not be a Top-10 C

It’s no secret that catcher is one of the least exciting fantasy positions, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some exciting players. Daulton Varsho is a young player who offers pop, speed, and multi-position eligibility. A catcher who can hit home runs and steal bases could be a fantasy gem, and fantasy players are currently all over him at pick 167 (ninth catcher off the board). Why don’t I share the enthusiasm?

To be fair, I do think Varsho is a valuable fantasy player from a dynasty perspective. However, I have a couple of issues with him this season. First, his role with the team is unclear even with Kole Calhoun’s injury. He completely skipped Triple-A from 2019 to 2020, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him not start the season with the Diamondbacks. Second, he performed poorly last season, slashing .188/.287/.366 with three HR, nine RBI, three stolen bases, and a 28.7% strikeout rate. Finally, he didn’t hit the ball hard but hit the ball in the air a lot, which does not benefit his potential power or speed. Maybe some season soon I’ll hang my hat on Varsho, but not this one.

Trey Mancini will be a Top-150 player, pushing Top-100

I not only want this take to happen because I believe in it but also because it would be a great story. Trey Mancini spent the entirety of the 2020 season receiving treatment for colon cancer but is at spring training looking healthy. Mancini’s health is obviously a concern far beyond fantasy reasons, but it does seem to be affecting the perception of his potential fantasy impact, as he is currently being drafted at pick 174. I think he will absolutely destroy that ranking in 2021, and here’s why.

Mancini is a solid, underrated (in my opinion) player. He has a career .276/.335/.485 slash line and hit at least 24 HR in 2017 through 2019, with a career-high 35 in 2019. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are typically in the top half of baseball, and he plays his home games in a hitter-friendly park. Further, the O’s offense may not be as awful as people think from a fantasy perspective (more on that later). There are a bunch of young, talented hitters on the roster, and Mancini should be right in the middle of the lineup. I think his talent, plus the bats around him, should give him enough opportunities to drive in runs and score. Overall, I think he will return huge value this fantasy season.

Michael Conforto will not hit 25 HR

I’ll now turn my attention to an outfielder who I’m not so high on. Conforto put together a slash line of .322/.412/.515 with nine home runs, 31 RBI, and three stolen bases. As such, he is currently being drafted at pick 73 overall. Conforto has provided consistent fantasy production from 2017 onward and hit at least 27 HR from 2017 to 2019. Given his track record, why do I think he won’t repeat it in a full 2021 season?

The bottom line is that Conforto just does not profile as a power hitter. He never had an average exit velocity above 89.2 MPH (his 2020 value was 88.4 MPH) or a hard-hit rate above 43.4% (his 2020 value was 36.6%) during the 2017-2019 seasons, and his career launch angle, while decent at 11.9 degrees, is not quite in the range of top HR hitters. Don’t get me wrong, Conforto should still be a solid fantasy player with an improved Mets' lineup, but I think his batted-ball profile finally catches up to him.

Trevor Bauer will not be a Top-10 SP

One of my colder takes from last season was that Shane Bieber would not be a Top-10 SP, so if I’m going to attempt to redeem myself, why not go after 2020’s NL Cy Young Award winner? He may be a polarizing personality, but Trevor Bauer pitched like a monster in 2020, posting an insane 1.73 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 36% strikeout rate. It makes sense that he is currently being drafted as the fourth pitcher in drafts, but I think that this position has too much to do with recency bias. Let me flesh out my case a bit more.

To start, Bauer had never been such a dominant pitcher prior to 2020. His career numbers from 2012 through 2019 were a pedestrian 4.04 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 9.2% walk rate, and 24.8% strikeout rate. He also didn’t have a great batted-ball profile in 2020. I am definitely wary of his 47th-percentile average exit velocity, 46th-percentile hard-hit rate, and 20.9-degree launch angle. Putting all that together, and I don’t think it’s likely that Bauer replicates his success to such a high degree in 2021. I certainly don’t think he will be a fantasy liability, but I think he will perform below the high bar of a Top-10 SP.

Jonathan Villar will actually perform at his ADP

This one may sound odd when first read, but let me explain. Jonathan Villar has emerged as a solid power/speed combo fantasy player over the past several seasons. As such, his current ADP of 173 seems reasonable on the surface. However, there has been a good deal of worry around Villar in fantasy leagues because his role with his new team is unclear; the Mets have a bunch of good players and could still bring more on, making it even more difficult to guess where/how Villar will get playing time. While these concerns are valid, let me plant my flag against them.

Ultimately, I think Villar will get enough playing time to live up to his ADP. He has played second base, shortstop, and outfield throughout his career, so his defensive ability should lend itself to squeezing him in wherever needed. Specifically, the Mets’ third base situation is still not decided, and if Villar keeps hitting this spring, he could potentially find himself at the hot corner. Per Nick Mariano’s Expected Draft Values research, a power/speed player drafted at pick 173 is expected to hit .249 with 23 HR and 13 stolen bases. I don’t know that Villar will hit that many HR, but he should be able to crush the stolen base number. This of course all hinges on playing time, but I think Villar will find it one way or another this season.

Multiple O’s starting OF will finish in the Top-200

I’ve already talked about one of the O’s potential outfielders, but I am high on most of them this season. There is a lot of young talent on their team in the outfield, some of whom have shown what they can do (Anthony Santander), and some looking to prove that they can live up to the hype (Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays). Mountcastle and Santander are currently being drafted in the top-200 (152 and 159, respectively) with Hays falling at pick 234.

Santander picked up in 2020 where he left off in 2019, showing that he can hit for decent average and power. Mountcastle, who is one of the O’s higher-end prospects, showed that he was worth the hype in his 140 big-league plate appearances in 2020, slashing .333/.386/.492 with five HR and 23 RBI. And while we haven’t seen much power yet from Hays, we have seen that he can hit for average and limit his strikeouts (career 19.9% strikeout rate). While there are a few other players who could battle for time in the outfield lineup spots (DJ Stewart and Cedric Mullins), I think that Santander, Mountcastle, and Hays will emerge as the O’s best regulars, benefitting fantasy players.

The Yankees will have three Top-150 SP

The Yankees made some additions this offseason to bolster their starting rotation, signing free agent Corey Kluber and trading for Jameson Taillon. Kluber has had a very strong career and Taillon has had some promising seasons in his career, but both have barely pitched since 2019 due to various injuries. In terms of Yankees starting pitchers from a fantasy perspective, Gerrit Cole is currently being drafted as the top option, but Kluber is being drafted at pick 195 and Taillon at pick 211. While the concerns for the latter two are obvious, I think they will both end up outperforming their current draft positions.

Kluber is an easier case to make given his career numbers. Prior to the 2019 season, Kluber had a career 3.09 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 27.2% strikeout rate. Assuming he stays healthy with the solid lineup backing him up, Kluber would be a fantasy steal if he could pitch 150 innings with a 3.50 ERA, 25% strikeout rate, and 10 wins. Taillon is a tougher case to make since he does not have as long of a track record to go off of. However, his last full season in 2018 was a solid one, as he posted a 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 22.8% strikeout rate over 191 innings pitched. The potential is there, and I think Taillon will return ready to pitch in 2021.

Justin Turner will be a Top-20 3B, pushing Top-15

A common theme in fantasy baseball is to discount players as they get older, despite their performance. Justin Turner will be 36 this season and has been in the big leagues since 2009. He put together another solid season in 2020, posting a .307/.400/.460 slash line with four HR and 23 RBI. Despite that, he is currently being drafted at pick 208 overall, which makes him the 22nd third baseman off the board. I think he will at least crack the Top-20, if not even more.

There is a lot to like about Turner from a fantasy perspective. He doesn’t strike out a lot, he hits for average and walks, and he is still able to hit the ball hard (76th percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate in 2020) with an uppercut swing (17.5-degree launch angle in 2020). Plus, he should hit in the middle of one of baseball’s best lineups, so he should have plenty of opportunities to score and drive in runs. In terms of aging worries, Turner has performed with such consistency over the past several seasons that I am not worried about a performance drop. While he has suffered several injuries over the past couple of seasons, they have not been major. If he stays healthy, Turner will return high fantasy value in 2021.

Manny Machado is overrated at 3B in 2021

We finally turn our attention to another third baseman. Manny Machado put together what was in many ways a career 2020 season, slashing .304/.370/.580 with 16 HR, 47 RBI, and six steals. Consequently, he’s being drafted at pick 21 overall, making him the second third baseman off the board. He is a strong fantasy player and will hit in the middle of one of baseball’s best lineups, so why do I think he’s overrated?

This take has more to do with the positional depth than anything else. With big-name hitters such as Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, and Alex Bregman being drafted up to 20 picks later, it almost seems like a waste to take Machado so early on. Beyond that, I would also expect a bit of regression for Machado, given that he has a career .280 batting average and .488 slugging percentage. Overall, this isn’t really that bold of a take and I’m quibbling over 20 picks. But, fantasy players should ensure that their early picks deliver, and if Machado could easily end up being the fifth or sixth third baseman in 2021, then it makes no sense to draft him as the second.

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