RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Adam Scott found the winner's circle inside of the United States for the first time since 2016, outlasting what felt like the entire field down the stretch at Riviera Country Club. Aside from Scott's double bogey slip-up at the fifth hole on Sunday, the Aussie presented himself as the most composed and consistent golfer at the event en route to his 14th career PGA Tour title. The 39-year-old gained strokes with all facets of his game to help him earn a tournament-best 11.972 shots on the field, and his 305-yard driving average placed him 15th for the week.
Gamers did a fabulous job, for the most part, of avoiding Bubba Watson, as the American only garnered a 14.6% ownership percentage in GPPs. I'd have anticipated that number being higher, but we did have a plethora of spots to misstep with Sungjae Im, Justin Thomas and Watson, all accumulating at least 14 percent of the usage rate and not making the weekend.
As far as this article is concerned, we positively highlighted Adam Scott, Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson and Harold Varner III and only whiffed on our recommendation of Justin Thomas being an option to consider. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. If you have any questions before the tournament starts on Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @Teeoffsports. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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WGC Mexico - PGA DFS Overview
Club de Golf Chapultepec
7,330 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Poa
To the naked eye, last week's Genesis Invitational held at Riviera Country Club is going to look identical to this week's venue of Club de Golf Chapultepec. Both courses are Par 71s that play around 7,330 yards and feature Poa Annua greens and Kikuyu grass, but that is where the comparisons stop, as the two properties could not be further apart in the way they play.
Riviera's yardage was hidden, meaning its short par-fives and driveable par-four masked the total length of the facility. To make up for that distance, six of the par-four holes had the capability to play over 450 yards, and an additional two par-fours came in at over 430 yards. However, the same can't be said about Club de Golf Chapultepec. Measuring almost 7,500 feet above sea level, the ball will fly nearly nine percent further for the week, turning the venue into a 6,700-yard test when you account for the elevation.
The Kikuyu fairways will suit pure ball-strikers, and placement off the tee is more important than distance. Tree-lined parklands are in place to impede your second shot if you miss on the wrong side with your drive, and golfers will be blocked and forced to layup to get themselves out of danger. Overall, Chapultepec is a strategic course that does have small, undulating greens with the same makeup as Riviera did last weekend, but there will be more of an emphasis on short iron play than the long iron test that we saw play out in California.
Let's take a look at the stats:
|
Stat |
Chapultepec |
Tour Average |
|
Driving Distance |
299 |
283 |
|
Driving Accuracy |
58% |
60% |
|
GIR Percentage |
65% |
65% |
|
Scrambling Percentage |
58% |
57% |
|
Average Three-Putts Per Round |
0.80 |
0.54 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Rory McIlroy leads the way at 7/1 and is followed by Dustin Johnson at 7.5/1, Jon Rahm at 10/1, Justin Thomas at 10/1, Webb Simpson at 18/1 and Adam Scott at 18/1. Johnson has won this event two of the three years it has been held at Chapultepec and is the only defending champion here this weekend with Phil Mickelson not qualified for the tournament.
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained Approach 25%
- Ball Striking 17.5%
- Par-Four Average 15%
- Par-Five Birdie or Better 12.5%
- Strokes Gained Around the Green 10%
- Three-Putt Avoidance 10%
- Proximity 100-150 Yards 10%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Priced DFS Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000:
Rory McIlroy ($11,500) - Rory McIlroy is quite possibly the most elite player in the world at any venue on tour, but the dominance he shows at tree-lined tracks such as Chapultepec doesn't always get mentioned the way it should. McIlroy has been on record over the past ten years quite often about his affinity for any course that features a tree-lined setup, and his two top-seven finishes here in his career should raise some eyebrows that the hottest player in the world is the deserving favorite to capture the title. The no-cut feature of the WGC Mexico could turn this into a potential stars/scrubs mindset, and I'd be looking to start a large percentage of my builds with the man from Ireland.
Dustin Johnson ($11,000) - What do you trust more? Course history or current form? That answer should tell you a lot about how to treat Dustin Johnson this weekend in Mexico. The American has finished first, seventh and first in his three attempts at Chapultepec, but there was no questioning that something was incredibly wrong with Johnson's game for the vast majority of the tournament at Riviera last weekend. It must be noted that despite his issues, the 35-year-old still had a chance to hoist the title down the stretch at the Genesis Invitational, but his shaky irons will need to get dialed back in if he is going to make his $11,000 salary worth the price of admission.
Justin Thomas ($10,800) - Seven of Justin Thomas' 12 career victories have either come outside the core 48 states or at a no-cut event, making the WGC Mexico a prime spot for the American to rebound from his missed cut at the Genesis Invitational. That knowledge that the public has of his excellence throughout a guaranteed four rounds will exponentially increase his ownership percentage, but I'd be more worried about building the top of my lineup the way I find to be ideal and looking to diversify myself elsewhere.
Jon Rahm ($10,600) - Make it 16 of 17 straight worldwide events that Jon Rahm has finished inside the top-17 in the field. However, despite his strong run of recent success, the Spaniard's ownership percentage might finally dwindle slightly this weekend in Mexico. Rahm has only come better than 20th place here once in his three attempts, but I wouldn't use that as a reason to fade the third-ranked player in the field. Rahm checks out firmly across the board and is thoroughly entrenched as someone to consider.
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,000) - I'm not sure if consistency is something that many DFS players are looking for when touting the top of the board, but Hideki Matsuyama has a style of game that knows how to produce results. A lack of winning upside has held the Japanese sensation back from achieving more throughout his career, but anytime a venue requires ball-striking excellence, you should at least give the 21st-ranked player in the world a second glance. In my opinion, this is the exact sort of track that could allow Matsuyama to get himself back over the hump.
Mid-To-Low-Priced DFS Players
Webb Simpson ($9,800) - It is hard to identify why Webb Simpson has struggled as badly as he has over the years at this venue. Simpson is a quality ball-striker who is capable of making birdies in bunches, but his 8.8 strikes lost off the tee in his two showings at Chapultepec is alarming. If we look back this year at how players have fared in their next start after finding the winner's circle, we haven't seen anyone finish better than 43rd place. That, combined with his poor statistical results, will have me owning very little of Simpson this weekend.
Adam Scott ($9,600) - While this does go against what I just mentioned in Webb Simpson's column about players failing to record a finish better than 43rd place in their next start after a win, Adam Scott checks too many boxes to ignore. The Aussie has been known throughout his career to string together a handful of quality results in a row, which is evident by him taking down back-to-back worldwide tournaments in his two most recent starts. Scott is going to receive his fair share of DFS players fading him off of a win, but I am more than ok with going back down the well again.
Xander Schauffele ($9,400) - At the time of writing this article on Monday, Xander Schauffele is projected to be the highest owned player on the slate. I get it with his track record of success at no-cut events, but everyone needs to realize that the American is more than just some flavor of the month that can only produce results at a specific type of track or setup. Schauffele's finishes of 14th and 18th place here in his two starts (along with his 25% projected ownership) will have me looking elsewhere this weekend, but that doesn't mean I won't be right back on the bandwagon if everyone decides to jump off after one event.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,200) - There is no denying the fact that Tommy Fleetwood has seen a statistical regression in recent years when playing on the PGA Tour. I don't want to look too much into those results because we haven't been given a consistent enough sample size to weight the slide fully, but it has stunted more robust results as of late. For Fleetwood to regain his stature as one of the premier players in the world, we will need to see him improve his short iron proximity numbers and par-five scoring percentage, but I wouldn't put either of those two things past him this weekend. Fleetwood has provided three top-19 results here in his three attempts and could be a hot putter away from having a chance to challenge the top of the leaderboard.
Paul Casey ($8,700) - There is a lot to like about Paul Casey when you throw away his recent putting woes. Casey has struggled on the greens, surrendering a total of negative-9.3 shots to the field, but his ball-striking acumen has remained as steady as ever. The Englishman's around the green game will also need to see a substantial increase if he wants to compete for the title, but his three top-16 results in his three attempts at Chapultepec has a great chance to get mimicked once again.
Collin Morikawa ($8,500) - How good is Collin Morikawa!? Twenty straight made cuts to begin his professional career, providing seven straight top-26 results and a victory in July at the Barracuda Championship. Pretty damn good if you ask me. Morikawa's most significant deterrent has been his putter, which has cost him shots in four of his previous five events, but his irons remained dialed in as the best on tour.
Patrick Reed ($8,400) - I always worry most about how Patrick Reed is striking his irons because if his putter gets hot, he has a chance to win any event he tees it up at weekly. Reed has gained strokes in three straight events with his approach game and has improved at Chapultepec in every start. The American has yet to provide a top-10, but I wouldn't count that possibility out this time around.
Jordan Spieth ($8,000) - Fading Jordan Spieth is going to come back and bite everyone one of these weekends, but a tree-lined test is a location where I am ok with that potential repercussion. Spieth's erraticness off the tee leaves him a possibility to get stymied quite often for his second shot, and there are some big numbers to be had if you find yourself deep into the forest.
Shane Lowry ($7,800) - Since Shane Lowry's victory at the Open Championship, we haven't seen much of him inside of the United States. Luckily for us, we might be able to use that to our benefit, as Lowry has an elite skill set to find success at virtually no ownership percentage. Consider the Irishman a sneaky GPP play that has a chance to get hot and come out of Mexico victorious.
Victor Perez ($7,600) - I just don't think most people know who Victor Perez is or how good he has been over in Europe. Perez has moved up to 38th in the world with his seven top-20 finishes over his previous nine events, which includes a win at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and two second-place results in Abu Dhabi and Turkey. The French golfer has a chance to be this week's Cinderella story and has the iron skills to make a run up the leaderboard.
Corey Conners ($7,500) - Corey Conners' missed cut last weekend in California should subside his ownership total, and it won't hurt that Tyrrell Hatton is going to go off as one of the highest owned golfers on the DraftKings slate at his $7,400 price tag. While Hatton does have stellar course history here, I believe there is a chance you are going to find yourself disappointed if you select the Englishman at over 20% ownership. Give me Conners for virtually the same price.
Scottie Scheffler ($7,100) - There are two parts worth discussing here for Scottie Scheffler. I do think he is mispriced and too cheap, but the 51st-ranked player in the world is probably going to be the most owned person under $8,000 (aside from Tyrrell Hatton). To me, Scheffler makes a ton of sense as a cheap fill-in option for cash-game lineups, but I find it difficult to stomach his 15%-plus ownership total in GPP events.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($6,900) - Christiaan Bezuidenhout has an interesting backstory for why we haven't heard about him sooner. Bezuidenhout was banned two years (later moved down to nine months) in 2014 as an amateur for taking a banned substance. The initial thought might be to throw the book at the South African because of a failed drug test, but the now 25-year-old had a good reason for doing what he did. When Bezuidenhout was the age of two, he accidentally consumed rat poison, giving him a stutter. Ashamed and full of anxiety for what he deemed to be a flaw, he notified all parties involved that he was going to take beta-blockers that would help him with not only his stutter but also with his anxiety level. While that should have been the end of that story, Bezuidenhout was still banned - even after filing all the proper papers. The now 48th-ranked player in the world has put all of those concerns behind him in the past few years and has been a force around the world, finishing inside the top-20 at the last WGC event to go along with two top-two results in his previous three starts.
Ryan Fox ($6,400) - The bottom of this board gets thin rather fast. It doesn't mean we don't have options with it being a no-cut event to take random swings, but there are a lot of poor values to be found. One player that does pique my curiosity is Ryan Fox, who comes into the week hot with three straight international top-30 results. The Australian did struggle here in his one start in 2019, but it looks as if he did the majority of his collapsing once he was out of contention on the weekend.
