RADIO
I have worked tirelessly to compile a database of Korn Ferry Tour data mixed together with PGA and DP World Tour data to help better analyze each golfer's statistical profile at a more detailed level. KFT data is extremely limited, so we have done our best to use it as advantageously as we could. This article has each player's name listed as a hyperlink above which will take you directly to their writeup.
With so many KFT unknown graduates coming onto the tour, some of which playing very good golf, its essential to find out who these players are and when, where, and how we should play them. I have broken each writeup into what the player does "great" (top 10 ranking), "well" (11-30), "poorly" (31-50), and "Betting and DFS Angles".
I also included a screenshot of this data along with their round-by-round Raw Strokes Gained (more of this below) in order to really get a better understanding of how to utilize each player from a betting and DFS perspective. A comprehensive statistical summary / cheat sheet of each golfer is available here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XYFK_qa2WyOLQkr7IxtOGbaXUrdTnbL_bXqQSo2tjK4/edit?usp=sharing
How are we ranking the Korn Ferry Fifty?
This deep dive into the KFT players gaining their tour cards is partially based off of the true strokes gained (TSG) query that Data Golf has on its site. “True strokes-gained is simply raw strokes-gained — the number of strokes you beat the field by in a given tournament-round — adjusted for the strength of that field.” For more on true strokes gained visit: FAQ (datagolf.com) . The order golfers appear in this article is based off of this metric.
It will also include the raw strokes gained (RSG) for each player at a round-by-round level to determine what kinds of courses (easy, medium, hard) each golfer excelled on this year. On the KFT there were 11 easy courses (top five players averaging lower than -15), 13 medium courses (top five averaging lower than -10) and one course played hard (top five did not average lower than -10). If a KFT member played a few events on the PGA Tour, there may be a few more hard courses in his profile.
Before diving into each player’s profile, we will need to understand the significance of Raw Strokes Gained vs True Strokes Gained. To put it into perspective, Rory McIlroy (+2.18) and Taylor Montgomery (+1.78) lead the PGA and KFT in respective RSG (a difference of 0.4 per round), but their TSG were +2.40 and +0.44 which is almost two strokes per round difference. Anticipating how KFT players would fare on the PGA, True Strokes Gained will give us a more realistic view.
With little to no strokes gained data available for OTT, APP, etc, we are going to dissect their strokes gained total numbers. We will be analyzing their top 75th percentile of results and their average results. For this article we are going to call the 75th percentile a player’s ceiling, as this refers to the lowest strokes gained total of their best 25% of rounds. We want to identify who is most likely to play great golf (high upside/ceiling) compared to who consistently plays good golf (high floor).
For example, Vincent Norman and Nicholas Lindheim both averaged -0.64 TSG over the last 12 months. Although they averaged the same number of strokes in their 20+ events, Norman had a 75th percentile (ceiling) of +1.45, while Lindheim’s was +0.9, which was reflected in Norman’s two T5s while Lindheim had no T5s.
This is a tiny nuance that has very little statistical relevance when looking at PGA Tour players, but with so little data available to us it is something that can help differentiate players that make up the KFT 50 when looking for upside in a more talented PGA Tour field.
We are also going to look at a player's last 12, 6 and 3 months' worth of TSG to decipher if they are heading into the new season with recent form that has surpassed their 12-month baseline. There are multiple instances of golfers who have improved tremendously throughout the year as well as those who played well early on and have since lost that level of play. To be on an upward/downward trend there needs to be a difference of +0.25/-0.25 TSG between time frames.
The main point of this article is to find as many edges as possible so we can take advantage of the KFT 50 early in the season before they accumulate more reliable PGA stats. If you have a differing opinion on an element of this article, please feel to reach out to me on Twitter @TheModelManiac and I will be happy to have a discussion about it. Although I think this article is perfect, I am fully aware I am not.
Now, let's dive into the "Korn Ferry Fifty"!!!
Dean Burmester
What does he do great?
Dean has the best True Strokes Gained average of the 50 and his ceiling ranks 3rd as a result of his success on easy courses (2nd). His three best finishes were all on easy courses and his T11 at The Open was also on an easy course. The 66th ranked player in the world managed to secure his PGA Tour card with a T4 at the first event of the KFT 3-event playoffs, which was part of his upward trend over the last six months.
Burmester is one of a few players with a sizeable Shotlink database this year (75 rounds). His strengths are driving (+0.28) finishing the year 11th in strokes gained off the tee on the DP World Tour and 7th around the green (+0.33). The majority of his OTT advantage comes from his superior distance (2nd). When his length is combined with a tidy touch around the greens he ranks 3rd in par 5 scoring.
What does he do well?
He tends to play okay on medium courses (29th) but not nearly as successfully as he does on easy courses. His birdie percentage is 15th which would probably be higher on easier courses and worse when playing medium/hard courses. His short-term trend has him on an upward trajectory.
What does he do poorly?
Burmester struggles to find the fairway (46th) which is probably a result of hitting nukes off the tee. As a result of his missiles only finding the fairway 51% of the time, he misses a lot of greens in regulation (44th) and even though he is rather tidy around the green, he fails to scramble (36th) and avoid bogeys (47th) as a result of a putter that lost him -0.25 strokes per round last year.
Betting and DFS angles
His +1.96 RSG in 18 opening rounds makes him a perfect candidate for First Round Leader (FRL) bets and R1 showdown slates. Burmester will be leaned on heavily in birdie fests and particularly R4 showdown where he is averaging +2.5 RSG in his 12 Sunday rounds last season. Keep an eye out for T20/40 bets that sit in the +400/200 range for easy course events.
Taylor Montgomery
What does he do great?
A lot!!! He leads the 50 in Raw Strokes Gained, scoring on easy courses, ceiling performances, birdie percentages, and bogey avoidance. That is FIVE category leaders which are accompanied by three second-place rankings in TSG, medium course scoring, and scrambling. It sounds like I am nominating Taylor for president, but he also sits inside the top-10 in par 5 scoring and his game has been trending upwards over the last six months. All of this combined for six top-5s in his last 10 KFT starts!
What does he do well?
He ranks 14th in driving distance and 13th in GIR% which seems abysmal in relation to the rest of his game.
What does he do poorly?
Win. Montgomery had six T5s in his last 10 starts while averaging +0.16 RSG on those six Sundays. For someone with his explosivity he only gained more than two strokes in one of those six final rounds, resulting in his season long R4 average (+0.28) two full strokes worse than his average Thursday through Saturday (+2.28). Once he gets the final round jitters under control, he should be one of the favorites to get their first PGA Tour win.
Betting and DFS angles
Round one (+2.21) and three (+3.37) were his favorite days to play golf and should be an absolute smash play in showdown slates as well as the FRL market. With his upside any T20 bets that sit in the +500 range should be pounced on early in the season before word gets round that there is a baller on tour.
Justin Suh
What does he do great?
Outside of driving...EVERYTHING!!! He does not rank first in any particular metric, but Justin Suh possesses a floor that even the Incredible Hulk would have a tough time smashing. He played in 24 events last season and had more T5s (4, including a win) than missed cuts (3), with two of them coming early in the season. He has the second best RSG and third best TSG, with his ceiling ranking 7th of the 50.
His game appears extremely well rounded, ranking inside the top-10 in driving accuracy and greens in regulation. When he does miss greens, he relies on his 10th ranked scrambling ability to avoid bogey (9th). He plays exceptional golf on easy (3rd) and medium (7th) courses, making the second-most birdies last season. He appears to be steadily improving on his game as his 6-month trend is pointing up.
What does he do well?
"Suh Dude, my worst major metric is driving the ball an average distance (27th)"
What does he do poorly?
!!!>crickets<!!!
Betting and DFS angles
Justin Suh will most likely be the chalkiest of the 50 as he won the tour championship which had a lot of PGA Tour eyeballs on it and his game seems so reliable, many people will roster him for his high floor, which may be significant enough to eat the chalk depending on how "Suh Crazy" the DFS community becomes. His consistency is backed up by all four rounds averaging between +1.12 and +1.61 making him a safe showdown "punt play". With a floor higher than Snoop Dog, he is a prime candidate for a T40 bet that has odds anywhere in the 2-1 range.
MJ Daffue
What does he do great?
Well, he hits bombs (1st) and makes birdies (3rd) at a rapid rate on easy (7th) and medium (5th) courses. His ceiling and TSG are both 4th, evidenced by five T5s and a T31 at the U.S. Open. In 22 starts last season he only missed three cuts, making the cut in both his PGA Tour starts. He plays great golf on par 5s (9th) and things are looking great for MJ who moonwalked his way onto the PGA Tour with a 2nd-place in the second of three KFT playoff events.
What does he do well?
With his cannon of a driver missing fairways often, his green in regulation percentage is 26th which puts some strain on a scrambling game (16th) that does an okay job at avoiding bogeys (22nd).
What does he do poorly?
Hit fairways (38th). It's okay, he leads the 50 in driving distance, so this makes sense.
Betting and DFS angles
MJ joins Montgomery as the only two grads who have both their ceiling and round one RSG above +2. Daffue is definitely a FRL and R1 showdown candidate. He has also shown to make a charge up leaderboards on Sundays, with four final rounds of +4.31 or better in his last 13 starts.
Nick Hardy
What does he do great?
Plays most of his golf on the PGA Tour, resulting in a TSG of 4th and a ceiling of 2nd. Nick Hardy is the first player that True Strokes Gained will impact drastically and is a perfect example of why Raw Strokes Gained stats on the KFT should be viewed with caution. He missed the FedEx Cup playoffs by 7 spots last season, with his best finish of 8th coming at the Travelers championship (+8.52 TSG) a week after finishing T14 at the U.S. Open (+9.08 TSG).
What does he do well?
Hardy’s best rounds on the PGA Tour this year were when he gained with his putter, which tends to spike randomly throughout the year. His driver is the steadiest part of his game, averaging +0.35 TSG Off The Tee in 2022. If Hardy can get his irons to be a little more consistent, he should be able to ball strike his way to regular tour status.
What does he do poorly?
Miss the FedEx Cup Playoffs by 7 spots.
Betting and DFS angles
With impressive upside, he may not be a sneaky play as he will be returning to the PGA. I don’t imagine there will be too many rogue betting odds that go under the radar for Nick, not to mention his chalky DFS track record where he went 19% owned at $8000 at the 3M late last season.
Carl Yuan
What does he do great?
Drive people who roster him insane with his volatility, unless you read RotoBaller articles that highlight that he ranks number Yuan on medium courses (1st). Five of his seven T5s came on medium or difficult tracks including a win at the Chitimacha Louisiana Open. He ranks 3rd in RSG and his TSG (6th) and ceiling (8th) both remain inside the top-10. Yuan bombs it (7th) and hits the 8th most greens in regulation which result in both his par 5 scoring and birdie percentage ranking 6th.
What does he do well?
He plays easy courses well, but not nearly as well as tougher courses. Seven of his 10 missed cuts came on easy courses making his floor on easy courses very low while still offering a decent amount of upside with two T5s. His scrambling (26th) is probably the reason somebody who hits as many greens as he does, sits outside the top-10 in bogey avoidance (13th).
What does he do poorly?
His accuracy off the tee is less concerning when looking at it alongside his 7th-ranked distance. That seems to be the way the modern game is leaning nowadays anyway.
Betting and DFS angles
In six of Yaun's 13 R3s he gained over +5 RSG on the field. Five of those six rounds were on medium difficulty courses. Therefore, R3 showdown on tougher tracks seems to be a spot we can leverage Carl's ability to "randomly" go nuclear. He is also a candidate for classic DFS and placing markets when scoring remains lower.
Thomas Detry
What does he do great?
Thomas Detry is another DP World Tour guy who managed to jump to the PGA Tour courtesy of his T4 at the Albertsons Boise Open in the first round of the KFT Tour Playoffs. His True Strokes Gained is nine spots better than his RSG which makes sense considering he played on the DPWT. Detry drives the ball great, finishing T10 at the Scottish Open, gaining almost four strokes off the tee that week.
What does he do well?
Makes cuts. He had 17 starts across the DPWT and PGA, missing only three cuts over that period.
What does he do poorly?
He lost -0.22 TSG on approach last season, so he can definitely improve his iron play which is backed up by his GIR% stats (45th).
Betting and DFS angles
Detry seems to play better on easier courses where irons aren't critical for success. Four of his five best rounds have come in R2. His four starts on the PGA Tour were T22, T10, T34, and T22, so the T40 market may be where we make some money on Detry if the odds are favorable.
Augusto Nunez
What does he do great?
With a name as cool and golf relevant as Augusto Nunez it should come as no surprise that he leads the Korn Ferry Fifty in GIR%! When you hit that many greens it is tough to make bogeys, which is why he ranks 3rd in that department. Six of his eight top-10s came on easy courses where he capitalizes on his par 5 scoring (9th). On the odd chance (24%) he misses a green, his scrambling ability (7th) helps him maintain that impressive bogey avoidance ranking. His RSG (7th) and TSG (8th) both squeeze into an already crowded room of top-10 statistics.
What does he do well?
He still plays well on medium difficulty courses but when the birdies are flying around Augusto thrives. His birdie percentage (22nd) is rather intriguing for someone who hits as many greens as he does. Either he is playing too conservatively, or his putter lets him down a little.
What does he do poorly?
!!!>crickets<!!!
Betting and DFS angles
Augusto plays his best golf in R1 (+1.98) and R3 (+1.49) and will definitely find himself in my player pool when we can expect scores to go low. He will also be a consideration for FRL and the placing market on easier courses.
Zecheng "Marty" Dou
What does he do great?
Confuses the heck out of my database with his names Dou and Zecheng serving as both first and last names, not to mention some sites having him listed as Marty. Regardless, Zecheng "Marty" Dou is a medium and hard course specialist with all five of his T5s and a win coming in tougher scoring conditions. He appears to dominate par 5s (2nd) which may be what drives his impressive 6th ranked birdie percentage. His TSG and ceiling sneak into the top 10 in 9th place, while his RSG ranks 4th.
What does he do well?
Marty has the biggest discrepancy we have seen between easy (28th) and medium (3rd) courses so far. His game has been steady for most of the year and appears to be in the middle of the pack on a ball-striking front with distance (19th), accuracy (26th) and GIR% (16th) all hanging out within 10 spots of each other. His scrambling ability (23rd) and bogey avoidance (16th) are nothing sensational.
What does he do poorly?
Good drives gained (39th) is a weird ranking considering his GIR% and accuracy are both much more impressive than 39th.
Betting and DFS angles
Sign me up for Marty FRLs, placings, and all DFS formats on courses with four par 5s and tougher scoring conditions!
Erik Barnes
What does he do great?
Erik Barnes is another medium course specialist (6th) who leans on his driving distance (9th) to take care of business on the par 5s (9th). He has a TSG ranking of 10th and his RSG ranks 8th. Four of his five T5s came on medium or hard courses, barely missing the cut at the U.S. Open.
What does he do well?
Erik plays easy courses (19th) better than 31 other grads and his scrambling (12th), birdie percentage (11th) and bogey avoidance (15th) all fall just short of top-10 status. His ceiling of 16th is presumably better on tougher courses where he can rely on his driver and scrambling ability. His driving accuracy of 28th isn't terrible considering he is inside the top-10 in driving distance.
What does he do poorly?
Barnes misses greens more than half field (33rd) which explains why his good drives gained is towards the back of the pack at 41st. If he can get the irons figured out, the rest of his game appears to be really impressive.
Betting and DFS angles
Erik Barnes will find himself in player pools for events with tougher conditions, four par 5s, and less importance on approach play. Missing only five cuts on the KFT, Barnes may see a few top-40 bets if the odds are appetizing enough.
Michael Kim
What does he do great?
He grinds! He is the first player to trend upwards over both the 6-month and the 3-month time frame. His game seems very complete and would not be surprised if he eats scrambled eggs for breakfast, lunch and dinner with that kind of short game (4th). Kim falls inside the top-10 for both birdie percentage (10th) and bogey avoidance (8th).
His three top-5s have come in his last six starts, which would suggest that something has clicked over the last three months. Again, we would not be surprised if Kim ordered his eggs over-easy, as he has played really well when conditions have been favorable (6th).
What does he do well?
If not eggs, why not a well-done steak, which would describe the rest of Kim's game. His ceiling of 14th is evidently higher on easier courses, with Mike checking in at 27th on medium courses, missing six of his seven cuts at those venues. His driving ability is about as average as it gets, ranking 27th, 23rd, and 24th in distance, accuracy and good drives gained. He hits his fair share of greens (18th) and is surprisingly poor at par 5 scoring considering he has such impeccable scrambling ability.
What does he do poorly?
Adhere to rules. He signed for the wrong score at the Fortinet last year, which had no impact on his weekend as he was going to miss it anyway.
But also... !!!>crickets<!!!
Betting and DFS angles
His R1 average (+1.24) is drastically skewed by losing -9.83 strokes at the Bahamas Great Abaco Classic. Huge meltdown there. His average jumps to +1.66 when removing that atrocity and makes him a definite FRL consideration, He seems to have found some form recently and will be in my player pool on easy courses which lack par 5s. From a betting perspective, we could find some tasty top-40 numbers on Kim early in the season.
Michael Gligic
What does he do great?
Another PGA Tour player who had to do it the hard way. After getting off to a rough start of the season, Michael Gligic is trending upward long term and short term. Since the Mexico Open, Gligic has been playing some decent golf on the PGA Tour, finishing T40 in seven of his last 10 starts, missing only one cut along the way. If he continues that kind of play going forward he should be able to improve on his 135th FedEx Cup ranking from last year and keep his card.
Since the beginning of May he has averaged +0.33 OTT, losing -0.23 before that. His putting is also gaining him +0.39 strokes now, versus the -0.54 he was losing beforehand. He finished T5 and 4th in two of the three KFT playoff events, which showed that his form did not waiver when his back was against the wall.
What does he do well?
Although his irons are only gaining +0.08 since Mexico, it is a massive improvement on the -0.97 strokes per round he was hemorrhaging to begin the season. He has also gained +0.23 on approach since the beginning of July, which really helped him finish the season with some consistency. Just like his irons, his around the green game went from losing -0.49 strokes before Mexico to gaining +0.09 since.
What does he do poorly?
Keep doing what you doing, Michael!
Betting and DFS angles
Gligic seems to be riding a lot of confidence, relative to where his game was half a year ago. If he continues to improve all areas of his game, he could be a sneaky surprise early in the season especially if he continues to be sub $7,000 and 2% owned. He has also shown that he can string a few made cuts together, so keep an eye on his T40 market for any odds close to 3-1.
Ben Griffin
What does he do great?
>crickets<
We are getting to the point in the rankings where great traits will get us excited.
What does he do well?
Ben Griffin does, however, do a lot of things really well, sitting just outside the top 10 with his ceiling ranking (12th), TSG (13th), and medium difficulty ranking of 12th. He also ranked 17th for both birdie percentage and bogey avoidance. His driving distance (29th), GIR% (29th), and scrambling (28th) all narrowly dodged the "poorly paragraph"
What does he do poorly?
Make cuts. Griffin has flashed upside, finishing solo 4th at the Wyndham Championship, but missing six of his last eight KFT cuts is not a promising trend. A lot of his best golf came early in the year and has since deteriorated, giving us our first downward 6-month trend of the article.
Betting and DFS angles
Griffin is going to be very risky to roster or bet on given his poor recent form, but he has shown that when he fires it up, he burns hot.
Sam Stevens
What does he do great?
Stevens made 19 of 24 cuts this year, including his two PGA Tour starts. He is top 5 in bogey avoidance (2nd), GIR% (3rd), and scrambling (5th). He also has an affinity for easy golf courses, ranking 8th on those courses and only missing one cut in nine easy events. Although it is not an essential part of our deep dive, we have to mention Sam's floor, which is exceptionally high relative to his skill level and is basically the identity of his player profile.
Fun Fact: Only 10 PGA Tour professionals had a floor that averaged positive strokes over the last 12 months. Patrick Cantlay lead the way at a ridiculous +0.7 TSG. There are five KFT graduates with ceilings below +0.7.
Sam Stevens' floor is the 4th highest of the KFT 50 and would rank 105th (-1.5) when including the PGA Tour. His TSG average would rank 153rd (-0.2) and his ceiling would rank 197th (+1.1). As we drift from floor to ceiling metrics, so does Sam drift down the rankings. The average difference between floor and ceiling for 280 golfers was 3.5 strokes. Sam's difference is 2.6 strokes. Of the 280 golfers with True Strokes Gained data, Sam has the fifth smallest gap between his floor and ceiling.
Basically, he is one of the most consistent golfers on tour, relative to his skill level.
What does he do well?
His driving metrics all range between 16th and 27th, while his two strokes gained averages knock on the door of the top-10 rankings. He plays courses of medium difficulty well, but four of his five missed cuts came on courses where scoring was medium.
What does he do poorly?
It's not often that I get excited about somebody's weaknesses, but Sam's sure is fascinating. He has average length and accuracy off the tee, hits the third most greens in regulation, and is top-5 in scrambling, yet his par 5 scoring average is 4.62 (39th). Sam has the 11th best RSG average but remarkably has no top-5s in 22 KFT starts. If he can figure out how to play par 5s more efficiently, he stands a fantastic chance to steadily finish inside the top-40 in PGA tour events.
Betting and DFS angles
Easy courses with as little par 5s as possible would be where Sam should shine brightest until he figures out his par 5 strategy. His lack of upside turns me off from a DFS perspective, but it would not be surprising to see him notch multiple top-40 finishes before the calendar year ends, which will be a market I will eagerly anticipate his odds.
Matti Schmid
What does he do great?
He spikes with his putter. Matti Schmid's three best finishes on the DPWT and PGA Tour (Barbasol) all came on the back of his three best putting performances of the year. He only gained strokes putting five times in 22 events, so when his putter misbehaves, his upside is severely hampered. He has the fifth highest ceiling of the 50, but interestingly enough he has the biggest gap between his floor and ceiling (4.4 strokes). In this respect he is polar opposite to Sam Stevens who has the same TSG average as Matti (-0.21).
What does he do well?
Matti hits it a long ways (12th) and hopes for the putter to spike every six or seven events on average. The rest of his game is rather uninspiring for someone with his level of upside. His length advantage on par 5s (20th) is nullified by a poor short game and he is field average (25th) in birdie percentage which is rather underwhelming for someone with his ceiling.
What does he do poorly?
His approach play is poor, ranking 42nd in GIR% and 45th in scrambling, resulting in a bogey avoidance of 46th, which is almost last.
Betting and DFS angles
Schmid is the definition of a GPP play, offering immense upside but producing lack luster results 80% of the time. He is probably best suited for showdown DFS where his round-by-round volatility can be harnessed best. He is also not a bad bet for FRL longshots or a T20 if his odds are in the +500 range.
Paul Haley II
What does he do great?
After the statistical landmine of volatility that is Matti Schmid, Paul Haley II and brings predictability with his skillset. He is one of the most accurate drivers of the ball (5th) and scrambles with the best of them (8th), which puts his ceiling at 6th. His ability to avoid bogeys (10th) probably has to do with his accuracy off the tee and scrambling, particularly on medium difficulty courses, which often require more precise ball striking, hence the more difficult scoring conditions.
What does he do well?
Haley II provides a solid floor along with his ability to actually win tournaments. He ranks out well in all of his remaining metrics outside of driving distance. He comes in at 14th in RSG with his TSG and GIR% ranking 16th and 17th respectively. For someone with a ceiling as impressive as Haley's, his performance on easy courses (24th) and inability to truly dominate par-5s like a few of his other classmates finds him a little further down the rankings.
What does he do poorly?
He lacks distance off the tee (43rd), but his impressive accuracy easily makes up for that.
Betting and DFS angles
Shorter, positional courses with medium scoring that demand precise shots over power is where Haley should find most of his success. He has typically excelled in R3 and R2, gaining an average of +2.56 and +1.01 in those rounds. He may have to remain in our back pocket until we get to the RSM Classic or other courses that players like Webb Simpson have excelled at.
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Kevin Roy
What does he do great?
With a par 5 scoring average of 4.47 he leads the Korn Ferry Fifty in that department, seemingly a par 5 specialist relative the rest of his stats. He also has not missed a cut since May, showing impressive upward trends in short and long-term departments. His season long metrics are definitely held back by a very shaky start to the year.
What does he do well?
Excluding driving accuracy and scrambling, Kevin ranks inside the top 21 for every other metric we are grading these ascending players by. Considering his scrambling is below average, it appears that his par 5 success is a result of steady ball striking, ranking 18th in distance and 12th in GIR%. His 20th ranked good drives gained would also suggest steady ball striking from the golfer with TSG (17th) and RSG (13th) both inside the top 20.
He plays well on both medium and easy courses and for someone who dominates par 5s, his 17th ranked birdie percentage is intriguing, while he avoids bogey (21st) slightly better than field average.
What does he do poorly?
His driving accuracy (31st) may be the reason his birdie percentage is as low as it is relative to his par 5 scoring, and with his scrambling (33rd) ranking close to the bottom third of the field, he seems to rely on hitting greens to score well.
Betting and DFS angles
Courses with gettable par 5s should suit his game best and with his scoring averages falling off over the weekend, he should be a R1 and R2 showdown target who will also possess cut making equity in any head-to-head matchups.
Brice Garnett
What does he do great?
He drives the ball very accurately (8th) and this is backed up by his good drives gained (6th). He is also going to rely heavily on his TSG ranking of 18th, as the majority of his rounds took place at PGA Tour level.
What does he do well?
For somebody who drives the ball as steadily as he does, his bogey avoidance (28th) and scrambling ability (13th) are his next best attributes. He managed to finish top-20 at the Byron Nelson and Barracude Championship, but never showed enough upside on tour to keep his card the easy way, ranking 147th in FedEx Cup points.
We have a pretty good idea of what we can expect from Brice on the PGA Tour, and his 18th in True Strokes gained is courtesy of playing most of his golf on the PGA Tour, where we have seen his lack of upside and a game that is seemingly in decline recently.
What does he do poorly?
His lack of distance (44th) and fire power on par 5s (45th) are probably why his upside on the PGA Tour is capped at making cuts.
Betting and DFS angles
Nothing really has us eager to get Brice in lineups or on betting cards.
Henrik Norlander
What does he do great?
He ranks 8th in good drives gained, which his only great ranking with most of his golf being played on the PGA Tour.
What does he do well?
He is accurate off the tee (22nd) and owns a TSG of 19th, which would probably be worse had he not finished T4 at the Sanderson Farms Championship late in 2o21. He never finished better than T30 in any event in 2022.
What does he do poorly?
Most of his stats fall in this category, and we must remember that we are also comparing PGA Tour stats to KFT stats, with birdies and scoring typically more difficult to come by on the tour. However, Norlander showed no promise in 2022.
Betting and DFS angles
If you find yourself in this range of the article (19th in TSG) and played most of your golf on the PGA Tour, there is a good chance we want nothing to do with you from a DFS and betting perspective and that holds true for Henrik, unfortunately.
Seonghyeon Kim
What does he do great?
After getting off to a blistering start of the season with three top-3 finishes in his first seven events, Seongyeon Kim cooled off a little as the year unfolded. However, for someone with a TSG of only 20th, he has a lot of exceptional areas of his game. Kim leads the 50 in scrambling, and as one would expect that trickles over into his bogey avoidance (5th), par 5 scoring (6th) and birdie percentage (8th) all ranking inside the top 10.
Four of Kim's five top-5s came on medium difficulty courses (4th), which checks out as his short game and bogey avoidance are very great. His RSG (6th) is also quite impressive and hopefully he can find that early-season upside on the PGA Tour.
What does he do well?
His driver seems to favor accuracy (15th) over distance (25th), but both elements of his off the tee game seem solid. He has a ceiling of 19th and plays easy courses (17th) well. His game is really steady, missing only two cuts since March.
What does he do poorly?
His irons seem to be a major concern, ranking a disappointing 38th in GIR%. It is the only weakness in his game and unfortunately it is one of the most statistically significant areas of golf. It is really tough to score well on the PGA Tour if you struggle to hit greens.
Betting and DFS angles
Kim will definitely find himself in the player pool on medium difficulty courses that deemphasize the importance of good iron play. Those two variables don't typically pair up, as medium difficulty coureses tend to favor good ball strikers.
Ryan Armour
What does he do great?
Most of his golf was played on the PGA Tour where he displayed incredible accuracy off the tee (1st). That is about it though, as his five T30s all lacked upside with none of those finishes placing better than T20.
What does he do well?
He is tidy around the greens (24th) and limits his bogeys (26th), contributing to his ceiling of 11th, which is skewed by the strength of field he played in on the PGA Tour. With no finish better than T20 that ceiling means very little to us.
What does he do poorly?
As one can expect from somebody who ranks 46th out of 50 in driving distance, he struggles to make birdies (48th) and take advantage of the par 5s (48th). His irons are also rather poor, ranking 40th in GIR% and barely gaining strokes on approach last season (+0.04 per round).
Betting and DFS angles
His consistency off the tee makes him a safe, cut-making punt play in DFS on courses that reward accurate drivers, although his lack of birdies can leave you wanting more at the end of the week. T40 bets with roughly 3-1 odds on tight golf courses are also an area to target Ryan.
Joseph Bramlett
What does he do great?
Nothing really.
What does he do well?
He drives the ball well (12th) and hits it a decent distance (13th).
What does he do poorly?
Most of his game is lack luster, with a T20 in January being his best result on the PGA Tour. He missed half of his cuts and offered very little upside.
Betting and DFS angles
Leaving him alone in all markets.
Robby Shelton
What does he do great?
He makes a ton of birdies (4th) and dominates par 5s (9th). He won the Pinnacle Bank Championship in August and finished T2 and the Price Cutter Charity Championship in July. He is trending in the right direction in both short and long-term departments.
What does he do well?
It appears that his driver is one of his more reliable areas of his game, ranking 14th in driving accuracy. He plays most courses well and avoids bogeys at field average (25th).
What does he do poorly?
He lacks distance off the tee (32nd), struggles to hit greens (34th), and when he does miss greens, he seems to have a tough time scrambling (31st). It is incredibly tough to make birdies while missing as many greens as he does, so he must get streaky with his irons and putter.
Betting and DFS angles
With his recent form and immense birdie-making ability, he is definitely going to be a DFS play, particularly on shorter courses that reward accuracy. He also plays his best golf in round 1.
Davis Thompson
What does he do great?
Davis Thompson's distance off the tee is the 6th best of the 50 and he has an affinity to play well on medium courses (9th), with four of his five best performances coming on tougher tracks.
What does he do well?
Davis seems to find the fairway (16th) much more than most players with his kind of distance, while also finding himself inside the top-20 in GIR% (19th). This kind of consistent ball striking is probably why he excels on more difficult courses, where there is less emphasis on making a bunch of birdie putts (29th). As one would expect from someone with his length, his par 5 scoring (16th) is in the top third of the 50.
What does he do poorly?
Easy courses are not Thompson's favorite (40th) and neither is scrambling (38th). His ceiling of 32nd is also nothing to get excited about.
Betting and DFS angles
Medium difficult courses with an emphasis on strokes gained off the tee.
Austin Eckroat
What does he do great?
He excels on par 5s (3rd), makes a lot of birdies (8th) and pounds greens in regulation (7th). His good drives gained also ranks 5th of the 50 which explains why somebody who makes so many birdies also avoids bogeys at a very reasonable rate (6th).
What does he do well?
He has two solo-seconds on easy courses (13th) and also plays well on medium difficulty venues (20th), relying on a healthy mix of distance (21st) and accuracy (18th) off the tee to get the job done. His ceiling is limited (29th) but we know what he is capable of on easy courses.
What does he do poorly?
!>crickets<!
Betting and DFS angles
For somebody who makes as many birdies as he does, courses with easy conditions and four par 5s should make him a decent DFS play if his price is right. Although he doesn't go nuclear in round 1, he still is very consistent on Thursdays (+1.40).
Brian Stuard
What does he do great?
He is very accurate off the tee (4th) but that is not surprising given his severe lack of distance (48th).
What does he do well?
Scramble (20th).
What does he do poorly?
A lot. He missed the cut in two thirds of his 31 PGA Tour starts. Outside of his T9 at the Honda Classic in February, Stuard only had one additional top-20 in 31 starts. He hardly makes birdies and is woefully bad on par-5s, ranking 47th in both areas.
Betting and DFS angles
No dice.
Will Gordon
What does he do great?
As of June, he has played a lot of great golf with the sixth-best three-month trend of the 50, ranking 17th in TSG over that period. Will's game is super steady and appears to achieve that level of consistency by driving the ball far (5th) and hitting a lot of greens in regulation (10th). We love to see that kind of ball striking profile and it appears that his game is really peaking, winning the Albertsons Boise Open, while grabbing four additional top-5 finishes in his last 11 starts. He also plays medium courses really well (8th).
What does he do well?
Whatever he does not do great, he does well, with the rest of his statistical profile falling in this range. If we took his last three months of play, his 11th-ranked birdie percentage would most likely crack the top-10 along with his bogey avoidance (12th). His scrambling (18th) is one of the reasons he plays par 5s well too (16th). His ceiling of 18th is mostly from his exceptional recent performances. For somebody of his length, ranking 29th in accuracy is not a concern.
What does he do poorly?
!>crickets<!
Betting and DFS angles
Hopefully his long-term metrics get him priced super cheap in DFS with our eyes on the T20/40 market particularly on medium courses. His recent form and "lagging" birdie percentage is something that gets us really excited particularly from a DFS perspective. He will also be a definite FRL candidate, gaining +2.02 strokes in his 24 Thursday rounds last season.
Harry Hall
What does he do great?
He has the 5th-best easy course raw strokes gained ranking and also finds himself inside the top-10 in scrambling (9th). His last three months of golf have been fantastic, winning the NV5 Invitational and finishing T3 at the KFT Tour Championship. He is trending up!
What does he do well?
His game is well rounded with most of his statistics falling in this range. His birdie percentage (16th) and bogey avoidance (14th) are his two best attributes he does well, while he also drives it an average distance (26th) and hits a normal number of greens in regulation (27th). His par 5 scoring (28th) sneaks into the top-30. His TSG of 28th jumps to 21st over the last three months and one can expect his ceiling of 24th to do the same.
What does he do poorly?
Accuracy off the tee for someone who is of average distance is a bit of a concern, but it is his only area of weakness.
Betting and DFS angles
Just like Will Gordon, hopefully his long-term metrics get him priced super cheap in DFS with our eyes on the T20/40 market particularly on easy courses. His recent form and "lagging" birdie percentage is something that gets us really excited particularly from a DFS perspective.
Byeong Hun An
What does he do great?
Hits bombs (2nd)!
What does he do well?
The majority of his game falls in this bucket with scrambling and easy courses scoring both just missing the top-10 at 11th spot. His bogey avoidance (17th) and GIR% (20th) are the other metrics to crack the top-20, while par-5 scoring (24th) and birdie percentage (21st) help keep his TSG of 29th from slipping into the "poor" bucket.
What does he do poorly?
Ben has one of the worse ceilings (36th) of any of the guys we have ranked so far, and his recent form is very concerning, missing six of seven cuts prior to playing better in the Korn Ferry playoffs.
Betting and DFS angles
He is a great follow on Twitter and is one of the more popular graduates as he has played a decent amount of PGA Tour golf over the last six seasons. Nothing about his recent play inspires us to go after him in any market.
Austin Cook
What does he do great?
Hits it pretty straight off the tee (9th).
What does he do well?
Playing most of his golf on the PGA Tour last year, Austin Cook relied on his putter to gain the majority of his strokes that has him trending up over the last three months. His scrambling ranks 17th while playing on the PGA Tour propped up his TSG to 30th. If his putter does not perform, he will continue to miss 12 of 22 cuts on the PGA Tour.
What does he do poorly?
In this era of golf you are going to struggle mightily on the PGA Tour if you rank 47th in driving distance and 48th in GIR%. The rest of his scoring metrics also find themself in the poor bucket.
Betting and DFS angles
Outside of a flashy putter, his overall game makes him tough to click on in any market.
David Lingmerth
What does he do great?
He chips and putts lights out (9th) which is what he most likely leaned on to win the Nationwide Children's Hospital Championship in the KFT playoffs. It was the only event he finished inside the top-20 all year. He is also very accurate off the tee.
What does he do well?
Nothing.
What does he do poorly?
The rest of his game is hot garbage.
Betting and DFS angles
His flash in the pan in the playoffs is not nearly enough to get us to click on him anywhere.
Ben Martin
What does he do great?
!>chirp chirp<!
What does he do well?
Drive it accurately (24th).
What does he do poorly?
All you need to know about Ben's game is that in 13 PGA Tour starts, he never finished better than T24 and 12 of his 13 starts were T51 or worse.
Betting and DFS angles
To quote Mark Cuban on Shark Tank, "For that reason, I am out"
Ben Taylor
What does he do great?
Scramble his butt off (6th).
What does he do well?
The more difficult a course is, the better Ben Taylor tends to play (13th). His five top-5s came on medium and hard courses. He just misses out on a top-10 ranking for bogey avoidance (11th) and probably because he scrambles so well, he plays par 5s (16th) efficiently for someone who lacks distance off the tee (35th).
What does he do poorly?
Leave him alone on easy courses (34th) and play him on courses that reward accuracy over distance.
Betting and DFS angles
He is a medium course specialist and may be worth a few dart throws when we get to shorter courses with difficult scoring conditions.
Nicholas Lindheim
What does he do great?
Nicholas Lindheim is super accurate off the tee (2nd) and hardly makes bogeys (4th), probably because he keeps pounding greens in regulation (6th). His ball striking consistency sees him play well on easy courses (10th), but he failed to crack the top 5 in any of his KFT starts last season.
What does he do well?
His scrambling is 20th, making an average amount of birdies (23rd) and plays the par 5s (28th) rather okay considering his lack of distance.
What does he do poorly?
He has one of the lower ceilings of the 50 (41st) which is reflected by only one top-10 finish of T6. He lacks distance off the tee (40th) which is maybe the reason he struggles to finish towards the very top of leaderboards, while making 15 of 18 cuts though.
Betting and DFS angles
With his ceiling sitting a few inches above his floor, Nicholas lacks the upside you want for GPP DFS contests. But if you are looking for a safe play on short, easy courses that reward accuracy off the tee, he is your guy. He may be considered in the T40 market if odds are reasonable enough.
Vincent Norman
What does he do great?
With basically the same TSG (35th) as Nicholas Lindheim, Norman Vincent offers a lot more upside as he is a green in regulation machine (2nd) and hits a lot of fairways (8th). His ball striking allows him to score well on the par 5s (9th) while leaning on incredible scrambling ability (3rd). For somebody this low in the rankings he does a lot great, which makes you wonder how bad the bad is going to be. He seems to be improving his game with both boxes trending up.
What does he do well?
His driving distance of 19th makes his top-10 accuracy that much more impressive. He has two top-3 finishes which both came on medium difficulty courses (11th). His ceiling is 19 spots higher than Nicholas, while they share almost identical TSG averages.
What does he do poorly?
He has a really poor birdie % rank of 35th, which means one of two things. He struggles to sink putts, which is tough to believe with such an impressive scrambling game. The second explanation for such poor birdie conversions when hitting the 2nd most greens of the 50, is that his approach play is ultra conservative, leaving him long birdie putts that often result in pars.
Betting and DFS angles
His lack of birdies makes him a tough sell in DFS markets, but with his uptick in recent events, he may be worth a shot on medium difficulty courses that reward great par 5 scorers. In the betting market he may be a staple in T40 bets on harder tracks, as his lack of birdies does not diminish the value of his finishing position in the betting market compared to DFS.
Kevin Yu
What does he do great?
His last 6 months are trending up, but that's about all that is great in his game. He did manage three top-3 finishes in nine starts before the KFT playoffs, where his game disappeared.
What does he do well?
Kevin Yu should gain a bunch of strokes off the tee on the PGA Tour if he continues to drive it straight (13th) and far (16th). With such impressive driving numbers his birdie percentage ranking of 13th is one of his best metrics, followed by par 5 scoring (20th) that ranks inside the top-20. His scrambling is field average at 28th.
What does he do poorly?
Considering how well he drives it, Kevin's 32nd ranked GIR% is rather deflating and his bogey avoidance (32nd) suffers a similar fate because of his errant iron play.
Betting and DFS angles
He makes a lot of birdies and has reasonable upside (26th) when he plays well, making his volatile history of results a perfect candidate for GPP DFS contests.
Brandon Matthews
What does he do great?
Activate launch sequence in 3, 2, 1...!!! Brandon Matthews hits it a country mile (4th) and as a result of his ridiculous distance off the tee he also has the 3rd-best par 5 scoring average. He has three top-3 finishes including a win at the Astara Golf Championship in February.
What does he do well?
His distance and dominance on par 5s see him make the 14th most birdies of the 50, while his GIR% (30th) is rather average.
What does he do poorly?
With that amount of distance and power you can only imagine there are other areas of his game like scrambling (41st), bogey avoidance (39th), and accuracy (47th) that are holding him back.
Betting and DFS angles
He made the cut at this year's U.S. Open and barely missed the cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which is an event that should suit his game really well. His explosivity and volatility make him an intriguing GPP play at courses where errant drives are not severely penalized.
Eric Cole
What does he do great?
His T3 finish at the KFT Championship was the first time Eric Cole averaged more than +1.45 RSG since April.
What does he do well?
Outside of his 30th ranked scrambling ability, his par 5 scoring (25th) and birdie percentage (20th) are the only two aspects of his game that provide any sort of hope.
What does he do poorly?
With driving stats and GIR% all ranked 38th or worse, ball striking of this quality will make success on the PGA Tour almost impossible.
Betting and DFS angles
His game has been in decline since May and his T3 at the KFT Championship is not enough to give us faith that he has turned his game around.
Phillip Knowles
What does he do great?
A hyper accurate driver of the ball (3rd) who makes a bunch of birdies (4th) has Phillip Knowles trending up in the last three months. His game lacks consistency, but he has recently averaged +1.98 or better in four of his last six starts including a T2 at the Albertsons Boisie Open in the playoffs.
What does he do well?
For someone who peppers fairways like Phillip, it is exciting to see his GIR% ranked 23rd. One can only imagine that it has improved over the last three months. He scores well on the par 5s (20th) and seems to play his best golf on easier courses (25th).
What does he do poorly?
He is 36th in scrambling and 39th in distance off the tee.
Betting and DFS angles
Short, narrow golf courses with easy scoring conditions will be where we include a decent amount of Phillip Knowles in our GPP player pool. He is super volatile, so the T20 market at 5-1 odds in weaker fields may be where we look to invest in a player who seems to be trending in the right direction lately.
Tano Goya
What does he do great?
A miraculous T5 at the KFT Championship was easily his best performance over the last three months.
What does he do well?
He plays par 5s (20th) well, while his impressive GIR% of 14th has him ranked 19th in bogey avoidance. His driver is reasonably accurate (27th) and long (23rd).
What does he do poorly?
For a player who does a lot "well" he does not make that many birdies (33rd). He is also playing rather poor golf recently, averaging -0.45 RSG in his last 10 starts.
Betting and DFS angles
His recent form and field-worst ceiling are enough to give him a skip in both DFS and betting markets.
Harrison Endycott
What does he do great?
Winner of the Huntsville Championship in May is about all that he did great last season.
What does he do well?
His ball striking seems very impressive actually, ranking 12th in driving accuracy and 15th in GIR%. He also scrambles (16th) well and seems to play his best golf on medium difficulty courses. His bogey avoidance (24th) suggests that the tougher the courses get the better chance he has of playing well by leaning on his ball striking.
What does he do poorly?
Harrison's ball striking should have him making much more birdies than his 38th ranking, which may suggest that he struggles to hit his irons close, as his scrambling ability implies he makes enough putts. His lack of distance off the tee may be the reason he struggles to attack pins on easy courses (41st).
Betting and DFS angles
Harrison may see the player pool on narrow, tough, shorter courses, but should be avoided on easier, longer tracks.
Nicolas Echavarria
What does he do great?
!>crickets<!
What does he do well?
He randomly plays well, validated by his ceiling of 15th, which is his best metric. His bogey avoidance (20th) and birdie percentage (26th) are the average products of his average ball striking, ranking 22nd in accuracy and 24th in GIR%.
What does he do poorly?
For someone who lacks distance off the tee (37th), Nicolas Echavarria is typically losing strokes on par 5s (34th) due to his inability to scramble (31st) enough to overcome his dinky tee shots.
Betting and DFS angles
Poor recent form and no particular course niche has Nicolas off our radar.
Brent Grant
What does he do great?
Brent Grant hits greens in regulation (4th) and he hits a lot of them. He is one of the better par 5 scorers (9th) and his lone top-5 came in the form of a win at the Simmons Bank Open in May.
What does he do well?
Grant plays his best golf on medium courses (19th) which include his win. He possesses both distance (14th) and accuracy (20th) off the tee which allows him to make an average amount of birdies (28th) even though he appears to really struggle with the short game.
What does he do poorly?
Only one golfer of the 50 scrambles (49th) worse than Brent, resulting in a bogey avoidance of 40th and easy courses rankings almost last (45th).
Betting and DFS angles
Grant should provide some DFS leverage on medium courses with four par 5s that require exceptional ball striking and do not punish poor short games. Not sure how many courses like that exist on tour, though.
Anders Albertson
What does he do great?
With the 44th TSG you can't expect much great aspects of his game, although he did win the Knoxville Open in May.
What does he do well?
He is very accurate off the tee (14th) and as a result tends to hit a lot of greens (21st). His bogey avoidance (26th) is average and he barely snuck his bridie percentage (30th) and easy course scoring (30th) into this section of his profile.
What does he do poorly?
In his nine events since the win Anders has lost an average of -1.11 RSG per round. He has missed seven cuts and his short-term trajectory is in an uncontrollable spiral. His inability to scramble (35th) or score on the par 5s (38th) has his ceiling rather low in 43rd spot.
Betting and DFS angles
Recent form that is in the dumpster makes this an easy pass.
Tyson Alexander
What does he do great?
Outside of his Veritex Bank Championship win, Tyson Alexander has not done much.
What does he do well?
If you are looking to play Tyson you are probably scrambling, which is the only thing he does well (23rd) resulting in a bogey avoidance of 29th ranking.
What does he do poorly?
Every other aspect of his game is poor. No need to go into details here.
Betting and DFS angles
The win and a T4 two months ago were all before he lost an average of -0.44 RSG over the last seven events that included six finishes of T59 or worse. No good.
Trevor Cone
What does he do great?
Trevor Cone has an abundance of length off the tee (8th) and hits a decent number of greens in regulation (9th), allowing him to win the AdventHealth Championship.
What does he do well?
He scores on par 5s (25th) and plays easy courses relatively well (26th).
What does he do poorly?
The rest of his game is substandard which explains why he has more missed cuts (5) than top-20s (4). Even with a win on his resume his ceiling (47th) is one of the lowest of all the graduates.
Betting and DFS angles
May be worth a shot at courses that reward length and good ball striking. Maybe we get a lucky short game week, but history suggests that is unlikely.
Carson Young
What does he do great?
The only hard course on the KFT rotation was won by Carson Young, leaning on his impressive driving accuracy (7th) that should see him play relatively well on tight, short courses in the future.
What does he do well?
His GIR% of 24th is a nice compliment to his accurate driving.
What does he do poorly?
Unfortunately, unless conditions are treacherous, Carson Young is going to struggle to improve on his next best finish of T12.
Betting and DFS angles
Not sure we ever want to roster someone with a ceiling of 49th.
Scott Harrington
What does he do great?
Easy golf courses (9th) appear to be where Scott Harrington likes to smash drives (9th) and notch T5 finishes.
What does he do well?
Not only does he hit it pretty far, but he also has reasonable accuracy (26th) off the tee, helping him pepper greens in regulation (11th) at a level that is one ranking spot shy of great.
What does he do poorly?
With so many short irons into greens you would imagine he would make a few more birdies (32nd) but his scrambling (40th) suggests that his short game lets him down more often than not.
Betting and DFS angles
Hopefully we can take advantage of a <1% owned Scott Harrington on a few easy courses that reward length off the tee. He would probably also have some really good odds for T40 at these courses.
Trevor Werbylo
What does he do great?
A T3 and a win in back-to-back events was the highlight of Trevor's season.
What does he do well?
He is relatively successful on medium difficulty courses (28th) although, at field average its nothing significant to write home about. He takes advantage of these courses with distance (30th) and greens in regulation (28th).
What does he do poorly?
His short game appears to be his biggest weakness, ranking 43rd in scrambling and 37th in bogey avoidance even with his decent ball striking.
Betting and DFS angles
Until Trevor shows some form before a medium difficulty event, he is a pass.
Kyle Westmoreland
What does he do great?
!>crickets<!
What does he do well?
He has the 11th longest drives of the KFT 50 and scrambles to a 22nd ranking. His last six months have trended upwards vs his 12-month metrics.
What does he do poorly?
The rest of Kyle's game is substandard and has resulted in him missing just shy of half his cuts, with no top-5s and only three top-10s in 25 starts.
Betting and DFS angles
With very little upside and a propensity to miss a lot of cuts, Kyle is not going to be on our radar.
I hope you enjoyed this article and that it is useful to you over the next few weeks.
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