Deeper PPR Draft Values and Early Waiver Wire Pickups

The NFL and fantasy football seasons are right around the corner, so at this point, you're either getting ready for your final fantasy football draft or have already drafted your teams and are now ready to analyze the waiver wire for any overlooked players and make minor roster tweaks.

This is definitely not the time to be making wholesale roster changes, but the last few picks in drafts are usually fliers, and adding or dropping those players normally won't make or break your team. That is unless you can identify a high-upside, low-cost player who is being overlooked and can provide sneaky PPR value for your teams. For those who haven't drafted yet and play in PPR leagues, consider this a list of undervalued running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends that can outperform their current ADPs and draft day prices.

Since we're looking primarily at late-round fliers here, we'll be using players who are currently being drafted outside of the top- 15 rounds in 12-team leagues, which means players outside the top-180 in ADP. For ADP, I'll be using NFFC and limiting it only for drafts done over the last week (August 26th to September 2nd), which is 154 different drafts.

PPR Running Backs

Tony Jones Jr., New Orleans Saints

ADP: 210 / RB63

We're talking league-winning upside here, so Tony Jones Jr. should be near the top of anybody's list. Despite being an undrafted free agent, Jones was a relatively productive runner at Notre Dame, recording 857 yards on 6.0 yards per carry during his final season, while also catching 15 passes for 104 yards and a touchdown. While those may not seem like eye-popping numbers, Jones Jr. was sharing carries with quarterback Ian Book, who ran the ball 112 times during that season.

Despite not having game-breaking speed, Jones Jr. has good feet and strong balance, which helps him to break tackles, and he can finish against contact and displays strong hands, which makes him an asset in the passing game. All of that is important considering the role he figures to play with the Saints. Jones Jr. got more carries than Latavius Murray with the first-team offense during the preseason, and Sean Payton even said in an ESPN interview that he sees Jones Jr. as the number two back behind Alvin Kamara.

That's a great place to be considering the Saints were fifth in the league in rushing attempts last year and Murray received 146 carries or 31.2% of the team's total carries. If Jones has indeed moved into the number two role, he should immediately see a good number of carries each game, plus potential goal-line work and the ability to be an RB2 if anything were to happen to Kamara.

Ty Johnson, New York Jets

ADP: 219 / RB66

Early in the offseason, many drafters were interested in grabbing shares of Jets running back Michael Carter; however, the rookie has failed to impress much in the preseason and is currently third on the depth chart behind Johnson and presumed starter Tevin Coleman. While Carter could still eventually emerge with this job, I think it would be foolish to count out Johnson. The University of Maryland product has been productive in his limited opportunities so far, averaging 4.5 yards per carry over his first two seasons and demonstrating strong skills in the passing game as well with his 4.4 speed and good open-field shiftiness.

Considering Tevin Coleman hasn't delivered with much consistency in his career, even when given starting opportunities in Atlanta in 2018 when Devonta Freeman was injured, I don't think it's a given that Coleman holds onto this job. I know that Coleman was with new Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur in Atlanta and San Francisco, but to me, that only means we should expect this offense to rotate running backs the way Kyle Shanahan did in Atlanta and later in San Francisco.

That means Johnson should open the season with a role even if Coleman is still involved or "starting." With Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, and Zach Wilson all showing out during preseason, the Jets could be a surprisingly competent offense, which would make their starting running back valuable for fantasy purposes. Given his passing-game skills, taking a gamble on that becoming Johnson makes sense to me.

Ty'Son Williams, Baltimore Ravens

ADP: 222 / RB69

It's always sad when any player suffers a serious injury in the preseason, so football fans were understandably bummed when J.K. Dobbins suffered a knee injury that will end his season. However, the other side of the coin is that the injury provides a potential career-changing opportunity for Williams. The former-five star recruit had a tumultuous college career that involved two transfers and an ACL tear, but he impressed the Ravens this summer, showcasing good speed and clear skills as both a receiver and pass blocker.

We know that Gus Edwards will be the starting running back for the Ravens this year, but we also know that like New Orleans, the Ravens love to use multiple backs. Last season, Edwards actually led the Ravens running backs with 144 carries (25% of the team share) compared to Dobbins' 134 carries (24.2% of the team share) and Mark Ingram II's 72 carries (19.8% of the team share). With Dobbins hurt and Mark Ingram in Houston, the Ravens will need to replace 44% of their team carries from last year.

While some of that will obviously get added onto Edwards' total, we should expect Williams to push for at least 20% of the share. That's a crucial amount considering Edwards is also not really a factor in the passing game, seeing only 13 targets all of last season. If Williams is the superior passing-down back and also sees 20% or more of the team's carries, he will be usable in most fantasy formats and would, like Jones Jr., become a clear RB2 if Edwards were to get hurt; however, Williams also has a chance to unseat the incumbent with a strong performance while Jones Jr. likely can't do anything to push Kamara aside.

Other Possible PPR Running Back Stashes: Rhamondre Stevenson - ADP: 186/RB58, Salvon Ahmed - ADP: 230/RB65, Sony Michel - ADP: 233/RB67, Wayne Gallman - ADP: 2263/RB75

Wide Receivers

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Green Bay Packers

ADP: 185 / WR72

Valdes-Scantling finished as the 55th-ranked wide receiver in PPR-formats last year with 9.2 fantasy points per game but is somehow now being drafted as the 72nd receiver off the board. There are only two reasons I can assume for that: his drop rate from last year and the signing of Randall Cobb. Let's take the second one first. Cobb is a 31-year-old slot receiver who hasn't played more than nine games since 2017 and hasn't had more than 66 catches since 2015. I know Aaron Rodgers loves him, but I think there is a cap on what we should actually expect from him. Plus, his role in no way competes with MVS' field-stretching ability.

MVS had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 17.9 yards last season and finished with 20.9 yards per reception. With Rodgers throwing him the ball, that gives him massive fantasy upside. I know that the 11.1% drop rate is a concern for people, but remember that MVS is a young receiver who is continuing to grow and get better. Jerry Jeudy had an 11.5% drop rate last year and we're still drafting him inside the top-70, and MVS' teammate Davante Adams had a 12.5% drop rate in 2015 before becoming the game's best wide receiver.

I'm not suggesting MVS will become Adams, but I'm saying that the drop rate for a third-year wide receiver shouldn't be treated as a death sentence since we've seen many receivers continue to improve in that area. Considering you're getting MVS with a ridiculously late draft pick, I think it's absolutely worth a roll of the dice.

Nico Collins, Houston Texans

ADP: 250 / WR86

Yes, the Houston Texans are likely to be bad, and yes, Tyrod Taylor is not the quarterback that Deshaun Watson is, but I think too many people are also acting as if Tyrod Taylor is a terrible option. The 32-year-old won't be a fantasy asset himself outside of the deepest formats, but he did throw for 3,000 yards twice in Buffalo before the league saw a proliferation of 4,000-yard passers, and his first two seasons saw him have an average depth of target of 8.3 yards and 7.1 yards. The 8.3 mark would have put him second in the league last year, and the 7.1 mark would be tied with Kyler Murray's numbers from last year.

The point being that Tyrod is not the dink-and-dunk quarterback that people seem to be making him out to be, and he can absolutely allow a wide receiver to sustain fantasy value, especially considering the Texans figure to be bad and will be throwing a lot late in games. They only have one real option in Brandin Cooks, so Collins has begun to see plenty of reps with the first-team in the preseason and has shown that he can be a real asset in the red zone with his size and strength.

Fantasy stats in the fourth quarter from bad teams still count, so I love the idea of using a late-round pick on Nico Collins in the hopes that he can deliver those.

Other Possible PPR Wide Receiver Stashes: Tyrell Williams - ADP: 196/WR76, Donovan Peoples-Jones - ADP: 236/WR82, Quez Watkins (who I covered here) - ADP: 253/WR88, Dyami Brown - ADP: 271/WR95

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

ADP: 180 / TE21

I covered Zach Ertz in my deep tight end article, so I urge you to read that here; however, I'll just reiterate that the season is starting, he's still with the Eagles, and he's stated he wants to finish his career there. Not saying it's definitely going to happen, but we maybe should no longer be drafting him as if he no longer has a starting job.

Dan Arnold, Carolina Panthers

ADP: 262 / TE31

Late-round tight ends are notoriously a tricky bargain but that may apply even more this year after injuries to Irv Smith Jr., Evan Engram, and Adam Trautman. If you're adding a tight end this late in the draft, he likely comes with more than his fair share of warts and playing time concerns, which is why I like Arnold after he emerged late last season for the Cardinals, catching 13 balls for 213 yards and three touchdowns over the finals five weeks. Now, that may not seem like a lot, but it showcased Arnold as a reliable receiver and solid over-the-middle target, which he has doubled down on this preseason.

The Panthers currently have nobody else really pushing him at the position, and Arnold has taken most of the first-team reps this offseason. Given his lack of competition, I like Arnold as a late-round dart throw on a team that could feature him in the red zone since they have a couple of smaller wide receivers in D.J. Moore and Terrace Marshall Jr. I don't think Arnold emerges as a league-winning option, but there are weirder things than him ending the season as a top-10 PPR tight end.

Other Possible PPR Tight End Stashes: Pat Freiermuth - ADP: 238/TE27, Donald Parham Jr. - ADP: 276/TE 35, Juwan Johnson (who I covered here) - ADP: 289/TE79

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