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This is the last slate before our long Fourth of July weekend. Not that you can't keep playing over the weekend, but an excess adult beverages usually results in less DFS success. At least that's what I've found. But it's still just as fun!
Thursday gives us an eight-game main slate with just three games in the early afternoon. We'll skip the puny early slate and focus on the big money. Let's get to it.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball MLB lineup picks for DraftKings on 6/30/16. The DFS lineup picks will range from high-priced to low-priced options and identify options who will out-perform their expectations, including sleepers and value plays on DraftKings.
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DFS Lineup Stacks to Target on DraftKings
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chris Young
Looking past the three afternoon contests, there aren't a whole lot of obvious stacking spots on Thursday. However, Young against the RHP-mashing Cardinals could get ugly. They place third in wOBA vs. RHP this year, just behind the Red Sox and Orioles. Matt Carpenter and Matt Adams are the obvious, more expensive options. Matt Holliday, Stephen Piscotty, and Jhonny Peralta will be lesser owned because they are right-handed batters, but they still provide plenty of upside in this matchup. Kolten Wong is a great, affordable flier if he finds his way into the bottom half of the lineup.
Washington Nationals vs. Brandon Finnegan
Nothing really stood out here, but if I have to highlight a second stack, I'll go with the Nats. I was surprised to find that they rank third in the MLB in wOBA vs. LHP. While Finnegan has shown the ability to cut through major league lineups, he's also shown his flaws and the occasional inability to miss bats. The players that make the most sense here come from the bottom half of the lineup, as Wilson Ramos, Ryan Zimmerman, and Anthony Rendon have all had their share of success against lefties. Jayson Werth should continue hitting second in the lineup, and he should find himself on base a couple times as well.
Also Consider: Baltimore Orioles vs. Taijuan Walker, Miami Marlins vs. Mike Foltynewicz
DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider on DraftKings
Madison Bumgarner, SFG at OAK - $13,000
Here's your stud of the night. Bumgarner is super expensive, but it will probably be worth it in this matchup and in this big ball park. He's almost a must in cash games, but I'm fine with going elsewhere in tournaments
John Lackey, CHC at NYM - $10,600
Price considered, Lackey is my favorite play of the night. He gets an awesome matchup against a depleted Mets lineup, and you're blind if you haven't noticed his success so far this season. The Cubs should be able to push some runs across against Steven Matz, and I don't see the competitive fire-baller giving up a lead in this one. Lackey is safe in cash games and has plenty of upside for tournaments.
Gio Gonzalez, WAS vs. CIN - $7,400
While Lackey is my favorite play, Gonzalez is the one I'm most excited to watch. His peripherals (strikeout and walk rates) suggest that there is some positive regression coming, but his recent bombshells will drive owners away. The Reds don't have a very favorable lineup against left-handed pitchers, so if there was a day for a bounce back for the south paw, this might be in. I love this tournament play, and look at that low price!
DFS Infielders to Consider on DraftKings
Catcher (C)
Wilson Ramos, WAS vs. CIN - $4,500
Hottest catcher in the business right now. He's raking the ball, especially off of lefties like Brandon Finnegan. If you have money to spend, you can't go wrong here.
Willson Contreras, CHC at NYM - $3,600
Contreras is doing his best 2015 Kyle Schwarber impression, and the DFS world should be thanking him. Until his price hits 4K, he's a great deal against a lefty like Steven Matz.
First Base (1B)
Victor Martinez, DET at TAM - $3,400
We all know the kind of pop that Martinez has, and this price against a righty in Jake Odorizzi is absurd. Fire him up.
Justin Bour, MIA at ATL - $4,500
Speaking of absurd, Bour's price is absurd the opposite way. Still, he has been making much better contact against righties with the same old power upside. He's a good tourney play because his price will drive everyone away.
Second Base (2B)
Derek Dietrich, MIA at ATL - $3,700
I've always loved Dietrich's swing, and it's almost like the Marlins are glad Dee Gordon was suspended so that this guy could finally get a full time job. He rakes against RHP, and Folty is coming off an injury.
Kolten Wong, STL vs. KC - $3,100
The Cardinals should destroy Young, and Wong should have a hand in that. His price is great for the amount of RBI chances he should see. Make sure he's in the lineup.
Shortstop (SS)
Ketel Marte, SEA vs. BAL - $3,100
Marte is simply finding ways to get on base since he returned from injury. He hits slightly better against righties like Chris Tillman, and the OBP plus stolen base skills are worth the price.
Adeiny Hechavarria, MIA at ATL - $2,500
Simply put, this is a punt play at shortstop. I think the Marlins take care of business against Folty, and Hechavarria always seems to contribute once or twice a game.
Third Base (3B)
Anthony Rendon, WAS vs. CIN - $3,900
Rendon is STILL hitting the ball hard, and I'm convinced that the success will come in bunches very soon. Finnegan provides him with a great opportunity on Thursday.
Kyle Seager, SEA vs. BAL - $3,600
Seager's power has been excellent since his slow start in May. Tillman is a good pitcher, so this isn't a cake matchup, but he should still get plenty of chances to drive in runs. The multi-homer upside is always there, too.
DFS Outfielders to Consider on DraftKings
Rajai Davis, CLE at TOR - $4,100
I often use BvP when targeting unique pitchers like R.A. Dickey. Davis is one of the few Indians who has had success against the knuckleball, as he's 5-for-11 with two doubles in his career. Davis has homer plus steal upside, and he seemingly makes a safe play here.
Christian Yelich, MIA at ATL - $4,300
I love all of the Marlins outfielders against Folty on Thursday, but Yelich is my favorite. He's stroking the ball right now, he gets a positive in the L/R splits column, and he can steal the occasional base along with his power. This a great cash or GPP play.
Mark Trumbo, BAL at SEA - $3,700
I understand that Taijuan Walker has a nasty fastball, but it's not unhittable. Not to mention, his off speed stuff has been bad this year. Trumbo might be risky, but this price is too low for the guy who seems to homer every other game. Use him at your own risk in GPPs.
Steven Moya, DET at TAM - $2,600
Moya continues to produce in J.D. Martinez's absence, and despite his strikeout tendencies, this price is way too low. Here's a great punt play for you if you want a guy with big homer upside.
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