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DraftKings Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (10/21/20) - MLB DFS Lineups

The 2020 MLB World Series continues on Wednesday night with Game 2 between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Tampa Bay Rays. In Game 1, the Dodgers chased Rays' starter Tyler Glasnow in the fifth inning and wound up with eight runs in the middle innings to cruise to an 8-3 victory. Big games from Bellinger, Betts, Turner, and Muncy fueled the win, as well as a vintage-Kershaw performance (6 IP, 2H, 1 ER, 8 K, 1 BB). The Rays managed six hits and three earned runs, but they struck out 10 times and obviously couldn't contain the Dodgers explosive offense.

I'll be going through some of the best plays at each position on DraftKings with a GPP/tournament lineup build in mind. That's not to say that these players won't work in cash-game lineups, but we're looking to provide high-upside plays for the most part (it's more fun that way, anyway). Everything changes with Showdown contests. In these contests, you will need to select one player to be your "Captain" - this is the most important piece as your Captain will earn 1.5x fantasy points (and his salary is 1.5x higher as well). After that, you need to select five additional hitters to fill out the rest of the lineup while staying under the $50,000 salary cap. DraftKings does allow you to select pitchers in these contests, but they're always priced at a premium and they're definitely more prone to getting pulled early than during the regular season.

In this article, I'll be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for the DraftKings main slate on 10/21/2020. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel and other sports too.  If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me on Twitter @kringstad19

 

 

Note: I'm not touching either pitcher in this game, and you'd be wise to do the same. Blake Snell would be the one to target if you feel the need to go there, but he'll need a ton of points to reach value at his salary and I'm not sure he gets there with how good this Dodgers lineup is and his extremely-improbable chances of pitching past the fifth inning. Additionally, they don't strike out much against LHP (19.4% average K% in projected lineup) and Snell's strikeout rate has dipped in the playoffs (23.8%). 

Captain:

Randy Arozarena ($9,600, $14,400 CPT)

I'd be doing a disservice to the fantasy community if I didn't list Randy as the top option at Captain for tonight's slate. I should probably check on this, but I'm almost positive that he has hit a homer and/or had a huge DFS day every single time I've recommended him for the past three weeks. This shouldn't take too much analysis - you know how lethal he is at this point. He posted a crazy .359 ISO and .422 wOBA in his 76 regular-season plate appearances...he has somehow elevated to a .419 ISO and .473 wOBA during the playoffs. His 24 runs+RBI accounts for about 20% of the Rays scoring in the playoffs. Gonsolin is a fine pitcher, but he has a high 40.2% FB% and he likely won't pitch too deep into the contest as he just pitched on Sunday. Do your best to get to the young phenom as he's on the short-list of Showdown slate-breakers.

Corey Seager ($10,400, $15,600 CPT)

Seager is my favorite pay-up option on the Dodgers tonight. Only AJ Pollock outpaces his numbers against southpaws among the Dodgers as his .232 ISO, .347 wOBA, and low 17.3% K% against LHP are metrics to attack. The aspect that makes Seager most attractive tonight, though, is how well he is seeing the ball. His form is incredible as he has posted double-digit DK points in six of his last 10 games and four games of at least 26 DK points. Snell is a really tough pitcher to get to, obviously, but Seager's recent form and low strikeout rate give him a better chance at succeeding than most. Plus, the team doesn't let Snell pitch past the fourth (maybe fifth) innings, so Seager will get at least a few at-bats that aren't against the top-tier starter. Getting to both Seager and Arozarena should be doable and is highly recommended as most will look to get to Mookie Betts, Bellinger, and Muncy after their huge outputs in Game 1.

Other options: Will Smith ($8,200, $12,300 CPT)

 

Utility:

Will Smith ($8,200)

This is a good price on Smith as he has been very consistently productive and profiles well in matchups against LHP. His 15% BB%, 15% K%, .294 average, .400 OBP, and .370 wOBA against LHP's all stick out as solid metrics. He also profiles well against Snell in particular, who relies on his fastball (50.6%) and holds an inflated 1.8 HR/9 rate. Smith had a .333 average, .733 slugging percentage, .478 wOBA, and six of his eight homers against fastballs in 2020. He's averaging 8.75 DK points over his last four games and his .289 ISO and .413 wOBA make him a threat to pop for a big day on any given slate.

Austin Meadows ($5,800)

This is one where we're trusting his career numbers more than his abbreviated 2020 season (just 39 PA's) and what he has shown in the postseason. He holds a .276/.345/.508 slash line with a .232 ISO and .355 wOBA for his career, but he hit just .108/.154/.270 this season and his metrics have only marginally improved through 65 postseason plate appearances. He should slot in toward the top of the order against Gonsolin and company, which gives him immediate value at his salary. It is notable that he hit the ball hard in his second at-bat after he entered the game late in Game 1, blasting a 103 MPH flyout that had a .840 xBA off Joe Kelly in the ninth inning. The last thing I'll note is that the one thing Meadows did do well this season was hit RHP for power as he had a .216 ISO over 111 PA's in 2020 (and a decent .331 wOBA). He'll likely get just one chance to produce off Gonsolin, but it's likely that he'll get at least a few at-bats against RHP in this one.

Cody Bellinger ($9,000)

Bellinger will surely be popular as he has hit a homer and produced at least 16 DK points in each of the last two games. His 378-foot blast in the fourth inning came off of an inside fastball from Tyler Glasnow and it exploded off the bat at 107.8 MPH (second to Muncy's double two innings later). He only has two zeroes in the point column over his last 10 games and he has put up double-digit DK points in half of them. Snell has had an issue with homers this year (1.8 HR/9) and has allowed four bombs over his 19 and 2/3 innings pitched in the postseason. Bellinger had a .333 ISO on the season and has eight homers in the playoffs, so he's happy to oblige.

Other options: Manuel Margot ($5,200), Kevin Kiermaier ($4,000), AJ Pollock ($7,400)

 

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Good luck in your DFS contests and make sure to give me a follow on Twitter @kringstad19!

 



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