RADIO
Happy Tuesday, RotoBallers! The NBA trade deadline is just over one week away, and lineups for the second half of the season are about to get weird. Do your best to be prepared for last-second scratches and discounted replacement costs with players on the move. It may not be as prevalent tonight, but we have seven other DFS slates to monitor before the deadline passes on March 25th.
The two games that pop off the schedule tonight are the New Orleans-Portland contest and the Minnesota-Los Angeles Lakers matchup. The 240.5-points over/under for the Pelicans-Trail Blazers game is tops by 13 points on the other six games. Meanwhile, Minnesota is the only team on the slate that's top-seven in pace on the season and the last 10 games. On the other side of that coin, I am perfectly fine completely fading the Cleveland-Miami game. Their matchup has the lowest over/under on the schedule (212.5 points) and two of the three-slowest-paced teams playing tonight.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on 3/16/21. You can also check out today's FanDuel lineup picks. With COVID-19 a significant factor, remember to monitor injury news as the slate can completely change before lineups lock.
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DraftKings DFS Guards
Damian Lillard - PG, POR vs. NO ($10,800)
C.J. McCollum will return to the Trail Blazers tonight after a two-month absence to a broken foot. Hopefully, CJM's return can create a buying opportunity for Lillard, while some DFS managers worry how McCollum's return will hamper his teammate's statistics. If Lillard does come in with a low rostered percentage, that would be a mistake and one I'll happily use to my advantage while building my lineups. The six-time All-Star has been incredible since the league returned from the break.
Since he sealed the All-Star game, Lillard is averaging 31 points, 7.3 assists, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.7 threes in 36.7 minutes. While McCollum's return may eventually cause Lillard's numbers to come down, it's not happening tonight against New Orleans. Over the last 15 games, the Pelicans are the worst DFS defense versus points guards. Lillard is averaging 52.75 fantasy points per game since the break and has the ceiling to hit the 60-point mark against this Pelicans backcourt defense.
Donovan Mitchell - PG/SG, UTA at BOS ($8,900)
If Lillard is too rich for your blood tonight, Mitchell is one of my favorite pivot-down options. The fourth-year guard is having a career-year for the Western Conference-leading Jazz. In 36 games, the 24-year old is providing 24.8 points, 5.4 assists, 4.6 rebounds, and 3.3 threes per night. Although he is shooting a career-low 41.9 percent from the field, his 54.9 percent true-shooting rate is right in line with his career average (54.5 percent).
Tonight, Mitchell takes on the Celtics. They are middle of the pack against guards over the last 15 games, but Mitchell has already had a big game versus the Cs. On Feb. 9, the two-time All-Star lit them up for 36 points, nine assists, four rebounds, and six threes for 62.5 DraftKings fantasy points. Although a repeat performance may not be in the cards, Mitchell provides a concrete floor (45.8 FPPG over the last 10), with an attainable ceiling on a crowded, seven-game slate.
Kevin Huerter - SG, ATL at HOU ($5,700)
Atlanta is dealing with some injuries at the moment. Clint Capela (heel) and Onyeka Okongwu (groin) are both questionable for tonight's game. As a result, some regular rotation players are getting some extra minutes on the court. One beneficiary is Kevin Huerter. The 2018 first-round pick has played at least 31 minutes in six of his last nine games and has the chance to reach that benchmark against the Rockets.
In those six contests with at least 31 minutes, the 22-year old is averaging 16.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, three assists, and 2.5 triples. That all adds up to 32.04 FPPG. At $5,700, a return on value in that range will be a fantastic night for DFS managers. To cap it all off, the Rockets allow the second-most points to shooting guards over their last 15 games. Houston has lost 16 games in a row and is in full tank mode. Hueter will reach the 30-point barrier and then some on Tuesday.
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DraftKings DFS Forwards
Kelly Olynyk - PF/C, MIA vs. CLE ($6,600)
Olynyk is in the tournament-only discussion for me, with Bam Adebayo (knee) probable to return to the starting lineup this evening. The tournament-only designation is compounded by the low total and slow pace of both teams I mentioned above. However, it needs to be brought up that Olynyk is averaging 39 FPPG over his last four contests. It's unlikely that Adebayo gets a full allotment of minutes in his first game in almost two weeks. Therefore, there will still be some extra minutes to go around the Heat's rotation.
Olynyk has shown us what he can do with the extra chances to impress. Over his last four games, the 29-year old is averaging 16.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, four assists, 1.8 steals, one block, and three made three-pointers. All good things must come to an end. Still, with Adebayo working his way back, maybe we can squeeze one more decent DFS evening out of the Olynyk orange.
Kyle Kuzma - SF/PF, LAL vs. MIN ($6,000)
Someone needed to step up for the Lakers after Anthony Davis (calf) went down a couple of weeks ago. Well, it seems like Kuzma is beginning to become that someone. Over his last three games, the 25-year old is averaging 22 points, 10.3 boards, 2.6 assists, 1.3 steals, and 3.3 triples per contest. Although he has come off the bench in the last two games, it's not affecting his contributions on the court.
Over their last ten games, the Lakers have slowed it down from their season average of 101 possessions per game to 97.68 possessions per game. The Timberwolves play at the second-fastest pace on the slate tonight, trailing only the Rockets. While the Lakers are far more talented than the T-Wolves, this should be an opportunity for them to run the court a little more than recent games. That will allow Kuzma to continue his current form (43.25 FPPG over his last three) and produce at least five-times his $6,000 price tag tonight.
Kenyon Martin Jr. - PF, HOU vs. ATL ($5,300)
Atlanta is a top-seven defense versus power forwards over their last 15 games, but that's not enough to fade KMJ tonight. Since his recall from the G League, the rookie has made his mark at the NBA level in just three games. In 30.6 minutes per game, the 20-year old is averaging 16.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.7 steals, 1.7 blocks, and 1.3 assists. Last game, he played the second-most minutes on a decimated Rockets team, and no reason that should change moving forward.
John Wall, Eric Gordon, PJ Tucker, and David Nwaba will miss the game, while Christian Wood and Danuel House Jr. are doubtful. Someone on this Houston team has to be on the court, and it looks like Head Coach Stephen Silas is ready to run out Martin and Kevin Porter Jr. to see what they've got on the roster. This will be a high-flying, up-and-down contest between two poor defenses. At $5,300, Martin can easily hit the five or six-times value mark.
DraftKings DFS Centers
Moses Brown - C, OKC at CHI ($3,500)
Despite fouling out of the game on Sunday, Brown may have secured more playing time while sitting on the bench. Teammate, and fellow big man, Isaiah Roby committed NINE turnovers. Brown also got the starting nod over Roby with Al Horford out, and that should be the case against the Bulls tonight. The sophomore center wasn't a big part of the Thunder's rotation before the All-Star break, but that has changed over the last three games.
Since the league has resumed play, Brown is averaging 23.4 minutes per game and recording 10 points, 8.3 rebounds, and one block across three contests. He is also averaging four personal fouls per game, so he is at risk of fouling out just like Sunday. Fortunately, the Bulls have the third-worst defense in the league versus centers over their last 15 games. If Brown can stay out of foul trouble and rack up the playing time, he should be a significant return on value for DFS managers.
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