RADIO
Happy Thursday, RotoBallers! We welcome in the first Thursday of March with nine games on the NBA schedule. Tonight is the final slate of games for DFS until next Wednesday (Mar. 10), so let's go into the All-Star break with a bang. Miami at New Orleans is the prime time game of the night, and it will be interesting to see how Miami handles Zion Williamson. The newly-minted All-Star is playing the best basketball of his young career and is trying to vault New Orleans back into playoff contention.
Three games instantly pop off the schedule for Thursday. Los Angeles-Washington (235.5 O/U), Milwaukee-Memphis (235 O/U), and Sacramento-Portland (238 O/U). It would be wonderful to build your cash game lineups entirely around these three games. The other six games all have an over/under less than 226 points and feature some slower-paced teams. These kinds of edges will give you a leg up against the other players in your contests on a nightly basis.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on 3/4/21. You can also check out today's FanDuel lineup picks. With COVID-19 a significant factor, remember to monitor injury news as the slate can completely change before lineups lock.
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DraftKings DFS Guards
De'Aaron Fox - PG, SAC at POR ($8,900)
Fox is a huge smash play in my lineups tonight. This Kings-Trail Blazers matchup has the highest over/under on the slate, and Sacramento is one of the faster-paced teams in the league. The Kings sit inside the top-10 in pace for the season (102.7 possessions per game) and over their last 10 games (101 PPG).
Fox's teammate, Tyrese Haliburton (calf), will miss his second-consecutive game on Thursday, and it will give Fox an even higher usage rate than usual. It's coincided with some of the best performances of the season for the 23-year old. The 2017 first-round pick is averaging 25.3 points, 10.3 assists, and getting to the line 8.3 times per contest over his previous three tilts. With his rookie running mate sidelined for the game, Fox should have the ball in his hands all night and produce many fantasy points for your squad.
Paul George - SG, LAC at WAS ($8,600)
There's a lot of talent at the guard positions tonight, and that's leading me to recommend two of the heavy hitters from the backcourt. With Kawhi Leonard (back) questionable to play, a lot of the offensive workload will fall on George's shoulder. Leonard missed Tuesday's game versus the Celtics, resulting in a big DFS night for PG13. The seven-time All-Star's final line was 32 points, five rebounds, four assists, one steal, and five threes. Although he was inefficient (5-for-15) from behind the three-point line, it's great to see him attempt that many threes along with the 26 shots he had in total.
Everyone that plays DFS knows that Washington is an excellent pairing for any team they face. They lead the league in pace for the season and over the last 10 games. The Clippers do have other outlets for offense, but George will be the star of the show if Leonard decides to start his All-Star break earlier than planned. Building your backcourt around George or Fox will give your squad a fantastic base to build on for Thursday's contests.
De'Anthony Melton - PG/SG, MEM vs. MIL ($4,700)
Melton has been prolific in Grayson Allen's absence for the Grizzlies. Over his last three contests, the third-year player is putting up top-20 value in season-long, nine-category leagues, and it's translating to a vast amount of DFS success. Melton's averages over the last seven days sit at 16.7 points, four assists, 3.3 rebounds, two steals, and three made threes in 24.3 minutes.
The contest tonight versus the Bucks lines up perfectly for a high-scoring affair. Both teams sit inside the top-eight fastest teams in the league. Meanwhile, Vegas has the over/under set at 235 points, the third-highest on the schedule. Before smashing Melton into your lineups, check back to see if Kyle Anderson (illness) is out for another night. Even if Anderson plays, Melton should be an excellent contrarian play against the number of players that will fade him.
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DraftKings DFS Forwards
DeMar DeRozan - SF/PF, SA vs. OKC ($8,200)
The Spurs remain without a number of their regular starters for their matchup against the Thunder. While his teammates watch from the sidelines, DeRozan is working on a terrific stretch of basketball. The four-time All-Star is averaging 21.3 points, 11 assists, 3.7 boards, and two steals over his last three games. This is despite scoring a low 10 points against the Knicks on Tuesday. Without Derrick White on the court, DeRozan is stepping up his distributions numbers with 11 assists in three-straight games. His overall contributions have led to him averaging 47.25 fantasy points over those last three games.
The Thunder ranks in the bottom-10 versus small forwards and power forwards for fantasy points allowed this season. Both teams rank right around league average for pace. DeRozan is the primary playmaker for the Spurs, and they need to rely on him as they make a surprising playoff push this season.
Norman Powell - SG/SF, TOR at BOS ($7,000)
I could give you a list of reasons that Powell will succeed tonight, but I'll start with the most obvious one: Toronto is decimated by the medical protocols. Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, and Pascal Siakam will miss this game due to COVID-19 related protocols. This leaves Powell and Kyle Lowry running the show for the Raptors. Lowry ($8,400) was in consideration for this spot, but I prefer the savings with Powell and his chances for a higher return on his salary.
The 27-year old has at least 12 shot attempts in five of his last seven games, and, when he hits that mark, he comes away with an excellent fantasy evening. Powell is averaging 44.3 fantasy points in those five contests and is coming off back-to-back 30-point scoring nights. He will have no problem getting to that threshold on Thursday, even against a more formidable than average Boston defense.
Robert Covington - PF/C, POR vs. SAC ($5,900)
Another piece from one of the better-projected games on Thursday's schedule: Covington is starting to turn the corner just before the halfway point of his first season in Portland. He's averaging 18 points, 9.5 rebounds, 2.5 blocks, two steals, and four triples over his previous two tilts. Those numbers allowed Covington to register 47.5 fantasy points versus Charlotte on Monday and then another 39.25 points against the Warriors last night. The Trail Blazers are devoid of frontcourt depth and need all the help they can get as they literally limp into the All-Star break.
Sacramento is a figurative turnstile when it comes to their big-men defense. They allow 57.38 FPPG to centers to put them as the third-worst defense in the league versus that position. Covington is hitting his stride and has ample opportunity to have another big evening for his new team in a Western Conference showdown.
DraftKings DFS Centers
Robert Williams III - C, BOS vs. TOR ($4,600)
Having Williams in your lineups tonight is a total upside play but has the chance to pay off massively. The 23-year old has provided at least 30 fantasy points in five of his last ten games and surpassed the 34-point threshold in two of three. Playing Williams is betting on Toronto having a tough time guarding opposing big men tonight. OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam will miss the matchup, and that lack of length will be a huge advantage for the Celtics upfront.
The game has one of the lower totals on the slate, but sometimes you've got to risk it for the biscuit. Williams fits my mold as a tournament play if you look to take home a big win as the NBA enters the All-Star break. His low price tag and matchup make him a perfect combination of upside and salary relief on a bigger-than-usual Thursday schedule.
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