RADIO
We have a five-game slate on Thursday, highlighted by what should be three very compelling matchups filled with star power in LAC/DAL, POR/DEN, and LAL/HOU. That Lakers against Rockets matchup should be an especially interesting matchup as both teams are looking to fine-tune their schemes before the playoffs begin.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on 8/6/20. You can also check out today's FanDuel lineup picks. Remember to monitor injury news as the slate can completely change before lineup lock.
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DraftKings DFS Guards
Victor Oladipo - SG/SF, IND vs PHX ($5,500)
You can triple-down on the overpriced T.J. Warren at high ownership all you want, I'm going to a low-owned 'Dipo in this spot. Oladipo should see minutes in the low 30's and has a 25.2% usage rate and 0.94 FP/MIN rate for the season - both come in higher than Warren and he costs almost a full $3,000 less. Phoenix ranks 25th in DVA against small forwards this season, and they rank 22nd in defensive efficiency against scoring wings. He should see a healthy dose of Mikal Bridges, and Oladipo is certainly good enough to take advantage of that matchup. Oladipo should be this team's go-to scorer when Sabonis is out, so getting him going before the playoffs begin should be a priority for the Pacers. He has taken 12.6 shots per game in the bubble but that number should be higher as Warren has been unbelievably hot and again Sabonis, their star player, will be sitting this one out.
James Harden - PG/SG, HOU vs LAL ($10,700)
Westbrook (quad) is questionable for this contest, so that will be something to keep an eye out for leading up to lock. I like Harden if he plays, but he becomes a very-high priority if Westbrook were to sit. Harden's monstrous 35.6% usage rate is the third-highest in the league, and it jumps to an unfathomable 44.2% (1.77 FP/MIN) when Westbrook is out. The Lakers are elite defensively and protect the paint very well, but they rank 12th in DVA and 21st in DEFF to shooting guards this season. Adding to that, the Lakers have seemed somewhat disinterested in exerting themselves in the bubble as their games don't really matter - they have losses to the Raptors and Thunder in which they scored less than 93 points in each game. Harden should be able to eat all game long and he looks to have the best chance at a ceiling game amongst the $10K studs.
Damian Lillard - PG, POR vs DEN ($9,700)
The pricing on Lillard seems high at first glance, but then you look again, and he's played at least 40 minutes and taken at least 19 shots in each game since the restart. The Blazers are forced to treat every game like it's a playoff game as they're still on the outside looking in for the playoffs, so Lillard seems likely to continue to get the heavy minute-load moving forward. The Nuggets are a solid defensive team and they rank ninth in DVA against point guards, but they're going to be without key pieces in Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, and Will Barton. They've given up 125, 113, and 126 points in three games since the restart, which is certainly notable. Combine Dame's 31.1% usage rate with his projection for around 20 shots and you have yourself a value stud on this slate.
DraftKings DFS Forwards
Anthony Davis - PF/C, LAL vs HOU ($10,300)
AD has only reached 5x value on his DK salary once since the restart (74 DK points on 8/3 vs UTA), but his chances of doing so again tonight are high. The Rockets rank 21st in defensive efficiency against versatile bigs, but those stats are taking the whole season into account, including when they had a real center in Clint Capela. They don't have him now and they're running out Robert Covington and P.J. Tucker at center, meaning Davis really won't really have any defenders because those players aren't centers. As long as the Lakers take this game seriously, which they should if they want to be on the same page heading into the playoffs, AD will get his against this porous defense. Whether the Lakers actually care about this game is up to you to decide.
Kawhi Leonard - SF, LAC vs DAL ($8,700)
This is just too low a price for Kawhi. He's averaging 43.3 DK points per game since the restart, which is below his 48.1 DK points per game season average, but the value here is hard to ignore. He has a 33.8% usage rate and averages 1.5 FP/MIN - no one with those stats should be priced this cheap. The Mavericks rank 10th in DVA and 16th in defensive efficiency against small forwards, and they rank 28th against "three and defense wings." The game has a 230 point total and the Clippers are only favored by 4.5 points, so Leonard should get his full allotment of minutes and has a chance to exceed 5x value for a bargain.
Robert Covington - SF/PF, HOU vs LAL ($6,500)
RoCo has largely flourished in his newfound role since his trade to Houston from Minnesota, manning the middle as the de facto "center" in ultra small-ball lineups. His presence as a center forces team's to either mismatch with him on defense or switch out for a similar small-ball lineup, both of which are good for Covington. The Lakers rank 22nd in defensive efficiency against versatile forwards and while Covington hasn't been shooting the three well in the bubble, he may find more open opportunities in the corner as Harden and Westbrook kick-and-pop against AD and LeBron. He's cheap enough where you have to like his guaranteed 30-minute role, and he has a legitimate chance at securing a double-double as he's averaging a career-high eight rebounds per game in 2019/2020.
DraftKings DFS Centers
Kristaps Porzingis - C, DAL vs LAC ($8,500)
The Unicorn has been absolutely rolling in the bubble, going for 70, 52.5, and 35.25 (fouled out) in three games so far. He's averaging 21.3 shots and 11 free throws attempted per game, and he's chipping in blocks and steals at a high rate as well. He has a favorable matchup as the Clippers rank 15th in DVA against centers and will be without rim-protector Montrezl Harrell once again. Luka Doncic just had an insane 34/20/12 game, so you can bet the defensive attention will be focused on him. This, and the fact that Doncic is a wizard as a distributor, should free up Porzingis to do his thing and dominate from a fantasy standpoint.
Jusuf Nurkic - PF/C, POR vs DEN ($8,900)
Nurk Alert! Once again Nurkic looks appealing as he draws a matchup with his former team in the Denver Nuggets. Nurk has been red-hot through three games this year, going for 50.75, 54.75, and 54.75 DK points in three games in the bubble. He has racked up an incredible 10 blocks and five steals, and he had 19 rebounds against the center-less Rockets on 8/4. The Nuggets rank 16th in DVA and first in defensive efficiency against centers during the season, but they've been shaky defensively inside the bubble and gave up a 20/5/3/1/1 game to Kelly Olynyk on 8/1. Nurk will be battling in the paint with Jokic all game long but his recent form coupled with Denver's defensive struggles have me buying right back in.
Good luck to everyone in their NBA DraftKings contests!
