RADIO
It's back to the typical smaller weekend slate tonight as we have five games on tap in the association. The Pacers-Hawks affair projects to be the highest-scoring game on the slate with a 236.5-point implied total, but the Rockets-Pelicans, Lakers-Suns, and Grizzlies-Thunder matchups all offer their fair share of fantasy intrigue as well. The 76ers and Magic will square off to open the action tonight, but that game is pretty unappealing as a whole. That being said, both Embiid and Harden are almost always worth taking shots on.
The Pacers are the only squad playing in the second half of a back-to-back set, so we shouldn't have to worry about teams unexpectedly resting players tonight. Surprisingly, Mo Bamba is the highest-priced player to be currently listed as questionable coming into tonight (LeBron's Q tag doesn't even count at this point). John Collins, Malik Monk, Tre Mann, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Suggs, Talen Horton-Tucker, and Lance Stephenson are also questionable and will need to be monitored as we move closer to lock.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 3/13/22. Remember to monitor NBA injury news and our live-updating NBA injury updates tool as the slate can completely change before lineups lock. As always, feel free to follow my Twitter (@RING_DFS) - I post about a variety of things but mainly NBA DFS with my K-Rate model. Let's get to it - good luck RotoBallers!
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DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Trae Young - PG, ATL vs. IND ($10,100 DK, $9,900 FD)
I mean...it's Trae Young in the top game environment on the slate, what's not to like here? This matchup currently has a 236.5-point implied total and while neither team plays at a fast pace, the Pacers' ineptitude on defense is what skyrockets the Hawks to the top of tonight's rankings. Over their last seven games, the Pacers are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game in the league, right behind the Houston Rockets (and similar teams in the Lakers, Thunder, and Blazers). They've been struggling against point guards in a longer sample too, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position over their last 30 games. They've also allowed the second-most assist per game to the position in that span, and Young is averaging 11 assists per game over his last five outings. As is typically (and obviously) the case, we'll need Young to get hot from deep in order for him to approach any type of ceiling game. Thankfully, the numbers and implied totals are suggesting that he'll have every chance to do so, especially considering that the Pacers are the lone team coming into tonight on the second half of a back-to-back set.
Devonte' Graham - PG/SG, NOP vs. HOU ($6,100 DK, $5,700 FD)
Graham is the next man up to lead this backcourt with McCollum and Ingram inactive again tonight. Graham played 34 minutes and scored 40.5 DK points in their absence on Friday, and he received a hefty price bump for tonight as a result. It's still not high enough in this matchup against the Rockets, who allow the most fantasy points per game, hold the worst defensive rating, and play at the fasted pace in the NBA. Graham gets a sizeable 4% usage rate boost and his FPTS/min improves by 0.09 with the expected lineup for tonight's contest. Vegas is projecting this game to stay competitive (currently NOP -6.5), so the chances of the starters having their minutes cut is mitigated a bit. He needs just about 30 FPTS to hit 5x value and that feels very, very safe in this incredible matchup.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - PG/SG, OKC vs. MEM ($10,300 DK, $10,300 FD)
SGA profiles as a great contrarian option in the high price range tonight. He's not going to get the rostership he should due to a gigantic dud in his last game and a 13.5-point spread tonight, but we've seen Gilgeous-Alexander get his full run in blowouts this entire season, so why would that stop now? He had been absolutely scorching prior to a 2-for-15 effort against the Wolves in his last game, going for at least 60 DK points in four of his last six games and making at least 10 shots in seven straight contests. I like his chances to get back on that 60 DK point track against the Grizzlies tonight, a team that's allowing the third-most fantasy points per game over their last 15 games. Both teams play at a top-11 pace, so this game should feature some extra possessions and plenty of scoring, too.
Devin Booker - PG/SG, PHX vs. LAL ($9,200 DK, $10,400 FD) | Better on DraftKings
His FanDuel price is a tad too high, but he's a steal over on DraftKings tonight. The Lakers allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards, which is the role Booker has assumed (along with Cameron Payne) with Chris Paul out of the lineup. He feels safe at his DK price and his ceiling is stratospheric in this matchup.
Others to consider: Cameron Payne ($6,500 FD), Dillon Brooks ($4,900 DK, $5,000 FD), James Harden ($10,000 FD), Jalen Suggs ($4,800 DK, $5,000 FD), Jose Alvarado ($3,900 DK)
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Chris Duarte - SG/SF, IND vs. ATL ($4,800 DK, 4,800 FD)
Going with a repeat from yesterday's article as Duarte's situation hasn't changed and he actually got $100 cheaper on DraftKings. Malcolm Brogdon will remain out tonight and while Lance Stephenson is currently questionable, there's no reason for the struggling Pacers to push their veteran to play through an ankle injury that kept him out of last night's lineup. Duarte saw 34 minutes of action and while he didn't do anything mind-blowing, he did reach 5x value with 27.5 DK points on a 15/8/1 line. Tonight's matchup is right about on par with last night's, though the Hawks rank much worse in defensive rating at 27th in the NBA. They're also allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards over their last 15 games and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards overall. This matchup rates out as the top game environment on the slate by a long shot, so you'll want to get to both sides here and Duarte is an easy, cheap way to do so. The Hawks are currently favored by 12 points, but Duarte would likely still get his full allotment of minutes in a blowout scenario.
Pelicans' Value Forwards vs. HOU
- DraftKings (in order): Jaxson Hayes, Naji Marshall
- FanDuel (in order): Jaxson Hayes, Naji Marshall, Herbert Jones, Trey Murphy
This is a "perfect storm" type of situation. The Pelicans will be without two of their stars (McCollum and Ingram), Zion Williamson, Larry Nance Jr., and Kira Lewis Jr. tonight. The McCollum absence is relatively new, which means that the remaining Pelicans are still priced at their "bench minutes" salaries and project as incredible values on tonight's slate. What really makes this the ideal situation, though, is the can't-miss matchup against the Rockets. Houston still ranks dead-last in the league in defensive rating and fantasy points per game allowed, and they play at the second-fastest pace in the NBA. They also have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards, so we could easily see big games out of Jaxson Hayes and Herbert Jones at extremely affordable pricing. Naji Marshall (27.7% usage rate, 1.09 FPTS/min with projected lineup) is too cheap on both sites and Trey Murphy is worth some shots on FanDuel after exploding for 45.8 FD points in his first game back since being recalled from the G-League.
Others to consider: Jae Crowder ($5,500 DK, $5,600 FD), Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,300 DK, $6,700 FD), Brandon Clarke ($4,300 DK, $4,200 FD), De'Andre Hunter ($4,600 DK, $4,700 FD)
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Joel Embiid - C, PHI vs. ORL ($10,700 FD) | Better on FanDuel
Embiid has the highest potential ceiling on the slate, and it's not particularly close. His salary is a bit prohibitive on DraftKings, though, so I'm really only looking to get to him over at his much more palatable FanDuel salary. He's faced with a dreamy matchup against the Magic, who allow the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing centers and the sixth-most fantasy points per game overall. The game has a low implied total, a slow projected pace, and a concerning 12-point spread, but it's tough to overlook his 38.1% usage rate, 1.62 FPTS/min rate, and 70+ FD point ceiling. He has posted a 36.9% usage rate and 1.56 FPTS/min rate in the six games since James Harden came to town, and those rates will certainly get the job done at his FanDuel pricing.
Deandre Ayton - C, PHX vs. LAL ($7,200 DK, $7,000 FD)
While Embiid is a pretty FanDuel-specific play when considering his DraftKings price, Ayton can be deployed on both sites tonight. His usage rate (21.5%) and FPTS/min rate (1.12) stay almost exactly the same with Chris Paul, Cameron Johnson, and Frank Kaminsky off the floor. That'll do just fine, especially with the hapless Lakers making their way into Phoenix tonight. The Lakers have really missed the presence of big man Anthony Davis defensively and it shows in the numbers. They're allowing the third-most fantasy points per game over their last seven games, and they're also allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing centers over that span. Ayton doesn't possess the most appealing ceiling in the world, but you can safely give a boost to his per-minute rates in this matchup and that makes him an attractive mid-range target at the center position.
Others to consider: Jonas Valanciunas ($8,300 DK, $8,400 FD), Mo Bamba ($4,400 FD), Clint Capela ($5,900 DK, $5,800 FD), Onyeka Okongwu ($3,200 DK)
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