RADIO
We're looking at an awkward three-game weekend slate in the NBA tonight, one where half of the teams are coming in on the second half of a back-to-back and none of the matchups really stand out from the pack. The Pistons-Cavaliers matchup, at least on paper, profiles as the one to shy away from the most as it holds a low implied total, a slow projected pace, and not a lot of fantasy appeal on either side. The Mavericks-Hornets and Lakers-Wizards games should be more appealing, especially on the Wizards and Mavericks sides as they square off against floundering defenses.
The key names to watch out for injury updates on are Cade Cunningham, Kristaps Porzingis, and Cole Anthony. Talen Horton-Tucker, Reggie Bullock, Killian Hayes, and Rajon Rondo also hold questionable tags coming into the day.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 3/19/22. Remember to monitor NBA injury news and our live-updating NBA injury updates tool as the slate can completely change before lineups lock. As always, feel free to follow my Twitter (@RING_DFS) - I post about a variety of things but mainly NBA DFS with my K-Rate model. Let's get to it - good luck RotoBallers!
DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Luka Doncic - PG/SG, DAL vs. CHA ($10,900 DK, $11,800 FD)
This one shouldn't be difficult to figure out. We have two high-priced players to consider tonight: Doncic and LeBron James. Call me crazy, but I'm going to go with the guy whose team isn't visibly imploding. While LeBron has had some spike games recently and just put up 71.25 DK points in this same matchup on 3/11, Doncic's usage (41%) and FPTS/min (1.7) with Porzingis (traded), Hardaway Jr., and Dinwiddie off the floor are extremely difficult to pass up on a three-game slate. I also like to use my matchup and team ratings as a deciding factor when waffling between any two players, and Doncic has a clear advantage there. The Mavericks project to be in a much more appealing game environment tonight against the Hornets, a team that ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency and allows the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opponents this season. The icing on the cake here is the positional advantage Doncic is going to enjoy tonight - the Hornets have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards over their last seven games. Luka is the priority spend-up on both sites tonight.
Cade Cunningham - SG/SF, DET vs. CLE ($8,300 DK, $7,500 FD)
Cunningham has missed his last two games with a non-COVID illness, but he's tracking to make his return tonight in Cleveland. Saddiq Bey went absolutely ballistic in his absence on Thursday, popping for 78.75 DK points and 51 real points in a shootout win over the Magic. Let the field chase that performance while we swerve and deploy the rookie out of Oklahoma State at an affordable mid-range price. He had been hot prior to his illness, torching the Clippers for 53.25 DK points in his last game and putting up at least 45.5 DK points in four of his last six. This is going to be a slog of a game and I don't love targeting it too much for DFS purposes - especially with the Pistons against this stingy Cavaliers defense - but we take what we can get on a three-game slate. This feels like a bit of a "floor" price point for Cunningham and he could be more contrarian than people expect with Bey coming off such a monster outing.
Jalen Brunson - PG/SF, DAL vs. CHA ($5,200 FD)
Spencer Dinwiddie getting ruled out opens up Brunson as a much more attractive play over on FanDuel tonight. He holds a decent 23.2% usage rate and 0.90 FPTS/min rate with Hardaway Jr. and Dinwiddie off the floor this season, but the real key here is the incredible matchup he gets to take advantage of. The Hornets allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing teams, and they're allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the position over their last seven games. He's a stone-cold smash play at this price.
Others to consider (FanDuel): Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,900), Russell Westbrook ($6,900), Darius Garland ($8,500)
Others to consider (DraftKings): Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,100), Ish Smith ($4,100), Raul Neto ($4,000)
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Kyle Kuzma - SF/PF, WAS vs. LAL ($8,000 DK, $7,000 FD)
It feels likely that the Wizards are going to play it safe with Porzingis' knee and have him sit on the second half of a back-to-back. He played 29 minutes against his former squad last night, which was the most playing time he has seen since joining the Wizards. We have to strongly consider Kuzma in this spot if the big man sits, and he's firmly in play at his FanDuel price regardless. Over a significant sample size, Kuzma is averaging a 28.6% usage rate and 1.17 FPTS/min with Beal, Porzingis, Bertans, Dinwiddie, and Harrell off the floor - both marks lead the team. Those rates barely drop with Porzingis (28.5% usage rate and 1.16 FPTS/min) on the floor. He's going to hog a majority of the usage and take a bunch of shots tonight, and that's what we're looking for with the matchup he's faced with. The Lakers are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game for the season, the fifth-most fantasy points per game over their last seven games, and the fourth-most fantasy points per game over their last 15 games. They've also allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards over their last seven games, so pretty much everything is lining up for Kuzma to crush in this spot.
Rui Hachimura - PF, WAS vs. LAL ($3,600 DK, $4,400 FD) | Better on DraftKings
We'll want to get to a whole bunch of cheap Wizards if Porzingis sits out tonight, but there are a select few to consider as value fillers even if he's in. Hachimura on DraftKings is definitely one of them. He's pretty volatile as his playing time can fluctuate anywhere from 17 minutes to 27 minutes, but even if we're projecting him to play minutes in the low-20s, he's going to be in the mix as a value option tonight. Hachimura holds a very respectable 22.4% usage rate and puts up 0.91 FPTS/min with Porzingis on the floor, while his usage rate sees a slight increase to 23.1% with him off the floor. As stated previously, this matchup warrants your attention as the Lakers have bled fantasy points all season and it has only gotten worse over their last seven and 15 games played. Getting around 20 DK points out of him feels like it's going to happen, and a value-crushing 30+ DK point game is very attainable considering the matchup he's gifted with tonight.
Others to consider (FanDuel): Corey Kispert ($3,600), Saddiq Bey ($5,600), LeBron James ($10,700), Deni Avdija ($4,400), Maxi Kleber ($3,700), Jerami Grant ($5,900)
Others to consider (DraftKings): Deni Avdija ($3,700), Corey Kispert ($3,800), Maxi Kleber ($3,900), Reggie Bullock ($4,500)
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Dwight Powell - C, DAL vs. CHA ($4,600 DK, $4,200 FD)
This is the furthest thing from being a "sexy play," I know. We have to take what the slate gives us, though, and it didn't give us much to work with at the center position. You can play LeBron here on DraftKings, but I prefer going the Luka route tonight and it isn't likely that we're going to have enough value to fit both in a lineup and feel comfortable about it. Evan Mobley is an OK play at his affordable price and solid recent form, but he's playing in the worst game environment and the Pistons have defended centers really well (10th-least fantasy points per game to the position). Dwight Powell is the cheap, and likely chalky, play here. You'll want to divert your eyes away from his 14.3% usage rate with Hardaway Jr., Dinwiddie, and Porzingis off the floor, but his 0.84 FPTS/min rate is nothing to sneeze at when we project him for the 30 minutes he typically receives. The matchup cannot get much better for him, either, as the Hornets have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season.
Others to consider: Evan Mobley ($7,700 DK, $7,900 FD), Isaiah Stewart ($4,800 DK, $4,700 FD), Wenyen Gabriel ($3,000 DK), P.J. Washington ($5,200 DK, $5,200 FD)
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