RADIO
There are five games on the main slate tonight in the NBA, which is something we should be used to by now as weekends have typically been on the lighter side in terms of games played. That's OK, though, as it allows us more ability to zero in on our preferred plays as opposed to just "taking shots" at all price ranges (which is generally necessary on the larger slates). As you can tell from my rankings below, there are clear tiers of matchups and teams to prioritize tonight. The Spurs-Hornets game holds the highest implied total, fastest projected pace, and the most combined fantasy points per game allowed, which makes it an ideal spot for fantasy production all around. The Blazers-Wolves game is also mighty appealing, while the Grizzlies and Warriors are in markedly worse game environments but still remain attractive targets due to their own offensive prowess as well as their opponents' leaky defense.
We have a large grouping of "questionable" tags to keep an eye on as the day rolls along. Jimmy Butler, Anthony Edwards, Devin Vassell, Jalen Suggs, and Lonnie Walker IV are the names to watch, though it seems very likely that Edwards is closer to doubtful as the budding star battles a knee injury. Talen Horton-Tucker, Kyle Anderson, Caleb Martin, Max Strus, P.J. Tucker, and Jalen McDaniels also enter Saturday with "questionable" designations.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 3/5/22. Remember to monitor NBA injury news and our live-updating NBA injury updates tool as the slate can completely change before lineups lock. As always, feel free to follow my Twitter (@RING_DFS) - I post about a variety of things but mainly NBA DFS with my K-Rate and Positional K-Rate model. Let's get to it - good luck RotoBallers!
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DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Dejounte Murray - PG, SAS vs. CHA ($10,800 DK, $9,600 FD)
Murray is going to be popular tonight, but he absolutely should be. He arguably possesses the highest ceiling on the entire slate and he has shown it recently, going for 61.6, 62.4, and 77.5 FD points over his last eight games. His salary over on FanDuel is especially hard to get away from in this tantalizing matchup against the Hornets. This is the premier game environment on the slate as it projects to be a shootout and play very fast, which generally tends to benefit the players who have the ball in their hands the most. Murray's the clear usage rate leader on this team at 26.7%, which pairs well with the fact that the Hornets are among the league's worst at defending opposing point guards. They're allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position on the season, and they're also allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position over their last seven games. No matter how you slice it, Murray is one of the top options among the high-salaried players tonight.
Anfernee Simons - PG/SG, POR vs. MIN ($8,000 DK, $6,700 FD) | Better on FanDuel
FanDuel went ahead and messed up the pricing here - feels like there's at least one every slate. Simons has been spiraling downwards over his last three games, but he had scored over 43 FD points in the three games prior to that and is the very clear usage rate leader (36.3%) on this team after their exodus of rotational players (McCollum, Powell) coupled with the players who are out tonight (Lillard, Nurkic, Hart). His last three subpar games were all in blowouts, too, and that feels less likely to occur tonight against a Wolves squad that is playing in the second half of a back-to-back and could be without Anthony Edwards. He's likely to get back to playing minutes in the mid-30s in a glorious matchup here, and there's no better player on this Portland team to take advantage of the Wolves' defensive deficiencies. They rank well against point guards for the season, but they have really slipped lately as they're allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position over their last seven games. Simons has a clear path to 40-50+ FD point upside in this spot, and you're not going to find that anywhere else in this price range at the position.
Malik Beasley - SG, MIN vs. POR ($3,200 DK, $3,600 FD) | Better on DraftKings
I don't really understand this pricing on Beasley for tonight. It's always an issue of minutes with him - he can play anywhere from 18 to 30 minutes on any given night, depending on how his shot is falling. This makes him a volatile and frustrating player to roster, but we have to consider the circumstances here and adjust accordingly. Anthony Edwards has missed the last two games, and Beasley has responded with games of 33 DK points (28 minutes) and 28.25 DK points (23 minutes) in his absence. He shot 12-for-22 from the field and a stellar 11-for-19 from 3PT in those games. If Ant is out again, this is just an absurdly low salary for the shooting specialist. The game environment is great and there's even a chance that Beasley slips into the starting lineup due to his recent performance and the Blazers' lack of size. Note: Reserve Beasley for large-field GPP's and reduce exposure if Edwards is ruled in.
Others to consider: Patrick Beverley ($5,100 DK, $4,700 FD), Cole Anthony ($5,700 FD), Keon Johnson ($3,200 DK, $3,500 FD), Elijah Hughes ($3,500 FD, $3,100 DK), Desmond Bane ($5,700 FD, $5,800 DK)
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Miles Bridges - SF/PF, CHA vs. SAS ($7,600 DK, 6,800 FD) | Better on FanDuel
It's clear that you want to get to as much of the Hornets-Spurs and Blazers-Wolves games as you can, and the former Michigan State Spartan is my preferred way to get to the Charlotte side tonight. I prefer him a lot more over on FanDuel due to the lack of positional flexibility over there, but he's worthy of some shots over on DraftKings if his rostership is reasonable (currently too high at 23%). He needs 35.5 FD points for 5x value on FanDuel, which is less than his season average of 37.8 FD points. We're targeting Bridges for his potential ceiling, though, and there's reason to think he could be in store for one of those outputs here tonight. He shot a stellar 8-for-12 from the field and posted a solid 19/8/8/1 line against the Spurs early in the season, and he gets them again tonight in what's projecting to be the slate's highest-scoring and fastest-paced game. He put up a monster 57.5 FD point total against the Pistons three games ago and struggled in the two games since, but those came against top-tier defenses in the Bucks and Cavaliers. The Spurs are decidedly not a top-tier defense as they're allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game this season (just four spots lower than the Pistons).
Jaren Jackson Jr. - PF/C, MEM vs. ORL ($6,100 DK, 6,800 FD)
Multiple layers of volatility exist with this play, but it's one that could pay off very handsomely if things break the right way. Jackson Jr.'s minutes and resulting fantasy production have varied wildly this whole season, but especially over the past five games as he has played between 20 and 36 minutes and scored between 15.75 and 47.25 DK points in that span. When he's on, he's on, and he's the only big in the mid-range who has 40-50+ DK points in his expected range of possibilities. The second volatility factor is this game's spread - the Grizzlies are currently favored by 16 points in a home game against the tanking Magic. Blowouts are notoriously very difficult to actually predict, though, and there are countless examples of players going off in games that blew out even despite seeing limited minutes. Embrace the volatility and ride with Triple-J in tournament formats tonight.
Trendon Watford - PF/C, POR vs. MIN ($4,200 DK, $3,500 FD)
Others to consider: Jarred Vanderbilt ($4,400 DK, $4,200 FD), Greg Brown ($3,900 DK, $3,500 FD), Ziare Williams ($3,500 DK), CJ Elleby ($4,100 DK, $3,900 FD), Brandon Clarke ($4,100 DK), LeBron James ($11,200 DK, $10,300 FD)
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Drew Eubanks - C, POR vs. MIN ($4,600 DK, $3,900 FD)
Eubanks should receive another start tonight, and I think it's more likely that we see mid-to-high 20's minutes out of him as opposed to the 18 minutes he received last game in a blowout loss to the Suns. I don't expect Wolves' stud Anthony Edwards to suit up and this is the second half of a back-to-back for Minnesota, so what currently looks like a scary 13.5-point line should come down to a more competitive level as the day rolls along. If the game does stay somewhat competitive, Eubanks has a great shot at smashing value at his salary on both sites. The Wolves have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing teams overall, and the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season.
Karl-Anthony Towns - C, MIN vs. POR ($10,200 DK, $9,300 FD) | Better on FanDuel
I'm finding it really hard to get away from KAT over on FanDuel, assuming Anthony Edwards remains out tonight. There are other ways you can go with a price tag that's $900 more expensive and the multiple-center option over on DraftKings, but Towns is going to absolutely eat an undersized and undermanned Blazers frontcourt tonight. Towns averages 1.49 FPTS/min (and a 32.7% usage rate) with Edwards off the floor this season - Joel Embiid is averaging 1.5 FPTS/min and he's $11,000 on FanDuel. Making this play even more appealing, the Blazers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season, and the fourth-most over their last 15 games as they've really missed the small semblance of defense that Nurkic provided.
Others to consider: Mo Bamba ($5,100 DK, $4,600 FD), Kevon Looney ($4,300 DK, $4,700 FD), Jakob Poeltl ($7,700 DK, $8,000 FD)
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