RADIO
We have yet another five-game slate on a weekend night in the NBA, which is just fine by me. The Grizzlies are the only team that's entering tonight on the second half of a back-to-back set, but they're also the top-rated team in my model with their matchup against the hapless Rockets. The Pelicans-Nuggets game is also profiling to be appealing for DFS purposes, while the Jazz are in a great spot (with some mild blowout risk) against the Thunder. The Raptors-Cavaliers and Knicks-Clippers matchups are both unappealing overall, but we could see some value open up on the Raptors side of the ball if VanVleet gets ruled out again.
There aren't a ton of injuries to monitor for tonight's games, but we do have a group of key names with questionable tags to keep an eye on in Fred VanVleet, Caris LeVert, Dennis Schroder, and Malachi Flynn. Nikola Jokic is probable to make his return from a one-game absence and Mike Conley has already been ruled out for the Jazz.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 3/6/22. Remember to monitor NBA injury news and our live-updating NBA injury updates tool as the slate can completely change before lineups lock. As always, feel free to follow my Twitter (@RING_DFS) - I post about a variety of things but mainly NBA DFS with my K-Rate model. Let's get to it - good luck RotoBallers!
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DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Donovan Mitchell - PG/SG, UTA vs. OKC ($9,300 DK, $9,000 FD)
"Spyda" is in a pristine position to post one of his vintage games tonight against OKC. He decimated DFS lineups in his last time out as he posted just 22 DK points in a blowout loss to the Pelicans on Friday. He had been crushing value prior to that, though, posting 61 DK points last Wednesday and an average of 51.35 DK points over his previous five games. Starting point guard Mike Conley will be sitting this game out, which means Mitchell's floor and ceiling are raised as he assumes additional ball-handling duties. With Conley off the floor this season, Mitchell is averaging a high 34.4% usage rate and 1.34 FPTS/min, which are both slight improvements from his season averages. The Thunder are as generous as they come on defense, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game overall for the season and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing guards over their last seven games. We'll likely need this game to stay somewhat competitive in order for Mitchell to hit his 55-65+ DK point ceiling, but he has a great shot at hitting value even if the game blows out. Spyda is a core piece on tonight's slate across all sites.
Jordan Clarkson - PG/SG, UTA vs. OKC ($5,000 DK, $4,900 FD)
Clarkson is another Jazz piece that you're going to want to get plenty of exposure to tonight. He's likely to step into the starting lineup with point guard Mike Conley sitting out, and while he actually sees slight dips in usage rate (-1.5%) and FPTS/min (-0.04) with Conley off the floor, the elite matchup against the Thunder more than makes up for it. He rarely surpasses minutes in the mid-20's and he's probably not going to tonight, but again, we can reasonably expect him to exceed his per-minute averages with how terrible the Thunder are defensively. He put up 32.25 DK points on 7-of-12 shooting over 24 minutes when these teams met in November, and a similar outcome is within the realm of possibilities tonight. Don't expect him to play a ton, but reaching 5x value at his suppressed salary should be a piece of cake for the veteran tonight.
Ja Morant - PG, MEM vs. HOU ($10,500 DK, $10,300 FD)
It's going to be really obvious that I'm digging the idea of loading up on Grizzlies tonight by the end of this article. Just a heads up. Morant is the clear-cut team leader in both usage rate (34.7%) and FPTS/min (1.43) and he has been on an absolute tear recently, averaging 54.6 DK points per game over his last six contests and almost hitting a 70-burger on 2/16 against the Blazers (69.75 DK points). He posted a 38.8% usage rate and 1.57 FPTS/min rate during that stretch. This game features the highest implied total, fastest projected pace, and the most combined fantasy points per game allowed of any on the slate. Additionally, the Rockets themselves hold the worst defensive rating, allow the most fantasy points per game, and have permitted the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards over their last seven games. Morant has an incredibly high ceiling in this spot, and there's enough value on the board to get to some combination of him, Mitchell, and Jokic tonight.
Reggie Jackson - PG, LAC vs. NYK ($7,000 FD) | FanDuel-only
Others to consider: Tre Mann ($5,500 DK), Alec Burks ($5,100 FD), Trent Forrest ($3,100 DK, $3,700 FD), Cedi Osman ($4,200 DK), Aaron Wiggins ($3,100 DK, $3,700 FD)
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Desmond Bane - SG/SF, MEM vs. HOU ($6,000 DK, 5,600 FD)
Bane looks great on both sites tonight. Memphis is the top-rated team in my model by a long shot, and the potential for the Grizzlies to blow out the Rockets feels a little more muted since Memphis is coming in on the second half of a back-to-back. If this game stays close, Bane's points-centric style should mesh really well in a matchup against a team that plays the fastest and has the worst defensive rating in the entire NBA. If this game doesn't stay close, Bane still has a great chance at hitting 5x value. He proved it just last night, putting up 36 DK points over just 24 minutes in a blowout win over the Magic. He doesn't possess the highest ceiling, but he's good for at least 5x value and has a better-than-usual shot at hitting the 40+ DK point mark in this incredible matchup.
Jae'Sean Tate - PF, HOU vs. MEM ($5,200 DK, 6,100 FD) | Better on DraftKings
This Rockets-Grizzlies game is the top game environment on the slate for fantasy production, so you're going to want pieces from both teams in your lineups. The preferred play on the Rockets is Jae'Sean Tate, especially at his cheap salary over on DraftKings. The young forward was forced from Thursday's game with an ankle injury and returned for just 23 minutes on Friday against the Nuggets, but he's not listed on the injury report today and seems to be all systems go. He put up 34.75 and 36.5 DK points at the beginning of last week in favorable matchups and he averages 26.8 DK points per game, so it feels like he's priced for his (typical) floor for tonight. Both of these teams play extremely fast and the Grizzlies have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards over their last 30 games. It makes a ton of sense to take some shots on Jalen Green, KJ Martin, and Alperen Sengun in tournaments, but Tate is the sneaky mid-range play I like from the Houston side tonight.
Others to consider: Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,300 DK, $4,400 FD), Jaxson Hayes ($4,900 DK, $4,800 FD), KJ Martin ($3,700 DK), Evan Fournier ($5,500 DK, $5,000 FD), Brandon Clarke ($4,300 DK), Isaiah Roby ($5,400 DK), Thaddeus Young ($3,800 DK, $4,000 FD)
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Jaren Jackson Jr. - PF/C, MEM vs. HOU ($6,500 DK, $6,700 FD)
Triple-J will be playing in the second half of a back-to-back set, but most of the rotational pieces on Memphis had their minutes cut short last night due to a convincing blowout over the Magic. Jackson Jr. struggled mightily, going 2-for-11 from the field and getting the majority of his 22.75 DK points from his nine free throws and three blocks. He remains too cheap, though, and he could easily explode in what is clearly the top game environment on the slate. The Rockets are divert-your-eyes awful defensively against every position, but they're literally allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards and centers this season. They also play at the fastest pace and hold the worst defensive rating in the NBA. Jackson Jr.'s recent form is on the sketchy side, but he put up 47.25 DK points just five games ago in a great matchup against the Wolves, so we know what he can do when the stars align for him. You can't dream up a better spot for him to go crazy - provided the game stays as close as the current 10.5 points spread implies.
Nikola Jokic - C, DEN vs. NOP ($10,900 FD) | Better on FanDuel
I don't want to hear anything about Jokic's recent form making him a bad play tonight. On FanDuel, you play Nikola Jokic at this price and you don't look back. Sometimes, this is a simple game. The only other center-only option that's even worth considering on the blue site is Rudy Gobert, who's going up against the center-less Thunder. His potential ceiling is about 15-20 FD points lower than Joker's though, so make sure you're spending your savings wisely if going the Gobert route.
Others to consider: Rudy Gobert ($8,500 DK, $8,500 FD), Mitchell Robinson ($5,600 DK, $5,600 FD)
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