RADIO
If you're reading this then thanks for taking the time to check out a brand new article here at RotoBaller. I do mainly premium content for NFL DFS here at RotoBaller and so I don't often get a chance to write a free article for the public to consume. I hope I can hook with you this piece and land on a couple of really good plays so you'll join me for the rest of the year!
I really wanted to do something different here for the final five weeks of the season. As someone who writes, edits, and digests a lot of DFS content during the week I often see the same players recommended in article after article across the industry. There are dozens of fantasy football or DFS sites these days and there's no shortage of content to consume. But so many of these articles just recommend the same plays over and over again?
No one likes being wrong and recommending chalky plays is one way to ensure that you're either right or you're with the field on being wrong. If you want some chalky recommendations, you can check out some other articles on our site or others. And if you're looking for cash game plays, you've come to the wrong place. This article is going to focus on GPP plays only and I will attempt to unearth some potential slate-winning plays that are projected to be low-owned. The goal each week is to find seven players that are projected under 7% ownership on Sunday who have the potential to win you a lot of money. Let's see what we can do!
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Quarterback NFL DFS Pivots
Jimmy Garoppolo @ Cincinnati ($5,800)
Median Projection: 17.2 DK points
Ceiling Projection: 31.3 DK points
2.5% Projected Ownership
Quarterback ownership is usually pretty spread out, so I don't usually worry too much about being contrarian at the position. And the reality is that most quarterbacks project fairly similarly each week both in median and ceiling projections. Scoring across the position is relatively flat, so why pay up, right? Usually the guys you are paying up for play for elite offenses (Brady and Allen this week) or are rushing threats (Lamar) who have higher ceilings as a result.
While Allen and Brady are really interesting plays in that game, which carries the highest total, I want nothing to do with Lamar (I'm actually on the Browns defense). Two guys who are looking pretty chalky this week are Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert at the higher end of the salary scale while Taysom Hill and Cam Newton could end up being the most popular cheap plays at the position.
So here I am...landing on Jimmy Garoppolo as my favorite sneaky QB play. Jimmy G is dirt cheap on FanDuel this week, but on DraftKings, he's 5.8k which is more than Hill or Newton. While many were ready to anoint Trey Lance the starter for the Niners this year, it's been Garoppolo who has led this team to a 6-6 record and a chance at making the playoffs as a wild card team yet. He's never a sexy play (despite being a sexy man) with how much the Niners like to run the football. But I think San Francisco is going to have to air it out this week in order to beat a pretty good Bengals team on the road. Without Eli Mitchell, the Niners are down to Jeff Wilson Jr. at RB and they might be without their best dual-threat offensive weapon in Deebo Samuel, too. This is Jimmy G's chance to shine and he has enough offensive weapons between Kittle, Aiyuk, Sherfield, and Jennings to put together a big performance against a Cincinnatti secondary that was shredded by the Chargers last week.
Running Back NFL DFS Pivots
Ezekiel Elliott @ Washington ($7,300)
Median Projection: 15.1 DK points
Ceiling Projection: 26.12 DK points
7% Projected Ownership
Tony Pollard is battling a painful foot injury as he tore the plantar fasciitis in his foot and he might not suit up or could be limited if he does. We've seen Pollard really eat into Zeke's touches lately and deservedly so as he's been the more explosive back of the two and is making the most of his touches.
Many will flock towards Dak and the Dallas passing game this week based on how poorly Washington's pass defense has rated this season. But the Football Team has been much better of late, holding opponents under 21 points during their four-game winning steak that includes a victory over the defending champion Bucs.
I think this could end up being a Zeke week if Pollard is limited and I want to go opposite the field and play the Dallas running game here in a game that I think could go under its total. Both teams want to run when they can and Dallas still has one of the best offensive lines in the league. Zeke is likely to go overlooked this week as he's in the weird purgatory of pricing where he's too expensive to be a value but also considerably cheaper than the other bell-cow backs Ekeler, Kamara, and Mixon.
Dontrell Hilliard ($5,300) or D'Onta Foreman ($5,100) vs. Jacksonville
Median Projection: 10 DK points (both)
Ceiling Projection: 21.2 DK points (Hillard), 19.85 DK Points (Foreman)
5.8% Projected Ownership (Hillard), 4.9% Ownership (Foreman)
Tennessee has an excellent matchup this week against Jacksonville, a team that has allowed big weeks to runners and pass-catchers throughout the season. The issue here is that the Titans' offense has been marred by injuries to the point where Ryan Tannehill had to be looking around the huddle at one point in recent weeks thinking, "Who the hell are all these guys?"
While Julio Jones could return for the Titans by Sunday and makes for a compelling GPP play, this team has built its identity on running the football. And despite getting throttled by the Patriots 36-13 in Week 12, they did manage to run for 270 yards against a pretty solid Patriots front seven.
Both Hilliard and Foreman had 100 yards each in that game, with Hillard getting a big chunk of his yardage on a 68-yard touchdown run. Foreman saw the most carries with 19, while Hillard had only 12.
Jeremy McNichols is back for Tennessee this week, which complicates things. But I think both Hilliard and Foreman have done enough to hold off McNichols who is likely only to play sparingly behind them. Both guys make for great GPP plays this week. I lean Foreman a little just based on the projected volume and potential positive game script here, but Hilliard looked dynamic with his touches. Both of them should be sneaky as I think ownership at the running back position is going to be even more consolidated than usual this week.
Wide Receiver NFL DFS Pivots
Jerry Jeudy vs. Detroit ($5,600)
Median Projection: 12.6 DK points
Ceiling Projection: 25.1 DK points
3.5% Projected Ownership
Most of my exposure to the Denver offense will be through Javonte Williams. But then again, so will everyone else's, right? We love to attack the Lions on the ground as they have the 23rd-ranked DVOA run defense. But they also have the 28th ranked pass defense, people! And they allowed Justin Jefferson to absolutely dominate last week (though to be fair, he's really, really good).
Will Denver need to pass in this game? Maybe, maybe not, but this is a great spot for Teddy B and his receivers if they choose to air it out. Jeudy hasn't had that explosion game that we have been waiting for from him, but he did show some signs of life last week with four catches for 77 yards. With his playmaking ability and the Lions' inability to stop opposing passing games, I think Jeudy is definitely worth a shot this week as a pivot off his teammate Williams who will undoubtedly be the more popular play.
Cole Beasley @ Tampa Bay ($5,000)
Median Projection: 12.7 DK points
Ceiling Projection: 28.4 DK points
4.5% Projected Ownership
This game has to be strongly considered for GPPs as it carries a 53.5 point total and two high-powered, potent offenses. However, both offenses have perceived tough matchups, too, as Tampa and Buffalo have solid defenses. Instead of fading this game, I'm looking for some different angles in this game other than playing the most popular plays on each side (Godwin, Fournette, Diggs).
The Bills can't run the football, nor will the Bucs let them. So we should expect a lot of passing attempts from Josh Allen. The weak spot for the Bucs defense has been in the slot and in the middle of the field (Dawson Knox also piques my interest). This is where Beasley thrives and despite his recent lack of production, we know that Beasley has the potential to pop off in the right spots. He has two games this year with double-digit catches (against Miami and Washington) and he scored over 20 DK points in those games.
If Beasley operates as Allen's safety net this week, it's not a stretch to think he could pile up a bunch of catches and maybe sneak in the end zone, too.
Joshua Palmer vs. New York Giants ($3,000)
Median Projection: 11.4 DK points
Ceiling Projection: 17.9 DK points
1.8% Projected Ownership
The situation with the Chargers' receiving corps is very fluid with both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams at risk of missing Sunday's game due to COVID protocols. It looks like Mike Williams could be cleared by tomorrow, but Keenan Allen faces more of an uphill battle to get cleared by Sunday. If both receivers play, then the appeal of playing Palmer or Jalen Guyton really goes away. And if both receivers miss, then we can expect Palmer and Guyton both to see a major increase in ownership.
What I am angling for is a situation where Williams plays, but Allen does not. In that scenario, I think most people will target Williams and Guyton as the top two options in the San Diego passing game. However, it would likely be Palmer who would operate as the slot receiver. In the slot, he would avoid Adoree Jackson and James Bradberry and have potentially the best matchup of the three receivers. At his salary, he doesn't need to do much to make value and if he put up a Keenan Allen-type line then he would absolutely be a slate-winner. The Giants' defense isn't good, and Justin Herbert certainly is. I think Herbert and the pass catchers could have a day against the G-men this week in a game that could end up a route.
Tight End NFL DFS Pivots
Rob Gronkowski vs. Buffalo ($6,000)
Median Projection: 14.5 DK points
Ceiling Projection: 31.5 DK points
5.4% Projected Ownership
It's finally time for our cover boy, Mr. Gronkowski! Gronk has come back from injury in a big way, posting 13, 22, and 21 DK points in his last three games. He got into the end zone twice last week and has seen a steady target share with 8, 9, and 8 targets in those three games.
He and his buddy Tom Brady have now hooked up on 102 touchdowns in their careers together. That's crazy! I didn't think Gronk would be this dominant at this stage of his career, but right now he looks fantastic and he's been filling the void left behind by Antonio Brown's absence.
While Buffalo has a good defense, they're going to have their hands full trying to stop one of the best offenses in football. If their corners attempt to lock down Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and their safeties look to help out over the top, that's going to leave the middle of the field open for Gronk to do work and Brady is more than happy to check down to Gronk or Fournette out of the backfield if that's what the defense is giving him.
Gronk has the best matchup of any TE this week according to Pro Football Focus and the Bills linebackers will be hard-pressed to cover the big man in space. It's not often you can roster a pass-catcher with a 30-point ceiling for only 6k so while his price has gone up, he's still an elite GPP option in my eyes and my favorite play from the Tampa offense in this game.
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