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If you haven't read the first round analysis yet, you should definitely do that! Click that and then come right back here. I'll know.
For those of you that want to view the draft board in all of it's glory, here it is:
As a reminder, here's the lineup: Jacob Bogardus, Brad Johnson, Alex Brock, Harris Yudin, Max Petrie, Josh Leonard, Ross Williamson, Andrew Miller (from The Fantasy Fix), Nick Mariano (myself), Tom Bellucco, Brian Dunshee (also from The Fantasy Fix), and Edward Suletan.
We put together a traditional 5x5 redraft 23 round mock with 2 catchers, a corner and middle infielder, and 5 outfield slots. Pre-draft chatter touched quite a bit on how having five OFs to start would affect draft strategies. Eventually I’ll take on more rounds at once and speak on standouts, but early on I think it’s important to touch ‘em all. Without further ado, here’s round two.
THE SECOND ROUND:
Ed quickly built on his Jose Altuve pick by wrapping around with Mookie Betts. Runs, steals, and average are off to a great start, but I’d be a little worried myself about not getting an elite power bat in the first two rounds. That said, he now has two guys who still possess pop and sit atop two strong lineups. He may get 225 runs along with healthy counting stats out of them. Betts is gently rapping, rapping at that first round door. Brian, Tom, and I must have all been thinking the same thing, grab one of those awesome young third basemen. Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, and Kris Bryant were the next three off the board (I really hoped Tom would leave Machado on the table for me, but Bryant paired with Correa is solid too).
If there was one name I was most surprised at making it to the second round, it was Arenado. Brian might have felt forced into taking Kershaw at such great value late in the first, and he doesn’t even miss out on an elite power bat. A modest 16.5 K% out of a 40 homer bat leaves me feeling totally confident despite some Coors-oriented hesitation (and he hit 22 road dingers). Tom gets Machado, who turned those doubles into home runs with a healthier swing (fly ball rate up roughly 8%, and the percentage of pitches he swung at that were outside of the strike zone fell by 11%). Bryant is definitely behind those two even just due to sample sizes, but remember that 2015 was his first look at major league pitching, and he still mashed. I anticipate some growth here, but the sophomore slump possibility does hang a bit. Double digit steals out of him is zesty too.
I think it’s really interesting looking at the player pairs that come out of the second round. Andrew selected Jose Bautista next, getting a reliable veteran power bat to go with Miguel Cabrera. The floor between those two is ridiculously high, as they’ve been powerhouses for many years now, but aren’t old enough where they’re going to fade tremendously. While you probably won’t get that .286 batting average from 2014, a .250 average with 35 homers along with Miggy’s strong average means that worry isn’t even on your radar.
Ross took Dee Gordon after Josh Donaldson, locking up foundational pieces in both power and speed. Gordon might not be able to reach .333 again, but I don’t see a drop down to .284 like Steamer is calling for. He should be a lock for 50+ steals and if he avoids injury and gets Stanton hitting behind him all year, should break that 100 run mark as well.
Josh grabbed J.D. Martinez’s power stroke to complement A.J. Pollock’s speed and dispel any fears about not having enough power with the first rounder. Even if he can’t get to 38 again, a 30 homer campaign seems likely and the Tigers lineup just got Justin Upton too, so the overall potency is trending upwards. He’s heading into his age-28 season on the heels of a 2015 where all he did was lead the league in hard hit ball rate with 42.3%. He’s legit, that’s a swing you can trust.
Jose Abreu went next to Max, who already had Andrew McCutchen, so now he has a solid 50 homers in tow along with at least a .300 average. Abreu is catching some flak for not turning into a superbeast who is crushing 40 homers, but I still like what I see. The power did take a step back. Here’s the thing though, his HR/FB rate went from 26.9% to 19.7%, but there are still positives behind it. His fly ball rate actually went up a shade and his average flyball distance went up from 305.45 to 307.79. He lowered his swinging strike rate by 3%, raised his zone contact by 3%, and took a little off of his soft contact %. You feel me?
Tell someone they can start a team with Giancarlo Stanton and George Springer, I bet they’ll take it, let alone in a 5 OF format. Before fracturing his right wrist last year, he had 16 bombs and 16 bags in roughly two-thirds of the season. The power should creep back towards more of his 2014 profile, he hits the ball hard enough to support that, but the speed is here to stay. Even if the power did hold at 2015 levels, a 25/25 season is going to make you happy. In Houston’s lineup, he could post 85-27-70-25-.275. The weight of that “could” is what brings him down towards the back-end of the second round, but he definitely has the raw skill to make it happen.
Alex took Charlie Blackmon, who he cited as being worth it due to his ability to carry a team during a week at Coors Field. We know the deal, the average was loads better at home, though he hit more road homers and steals are always a threat. Depends on your approach to ceiling or floor in the early rounds, but after taking Paul Goldschmidt I like how sneakily steals have been attacked without giving up much. Jacob identified Blackmon as a reach in his eyes, with special consideration that the trade possibility looms too large to buy him this early.
Brad then tapped Edwin Encarnacion to join Bryce Harper, and comes closest to getting 100 home runs on his team in just two picks. Yes, he’s turning 33 and hasn’t played in over 150 games in three years, but he’ll still hit 30+ bombs in an insane lineup. Brad expressed to me that this pick left the worst taste in his mouth just because of the drop off after Springer is taken, but a strong power foundation is a hard thing to scoff at.
Finally, Jake the Snake (drafter) took Troy Tulowitzki. You either think he’s still got it and take him around here, or you don’t and will not own him this year. Will he be more settled and healthy playing in Toronto after a full offseason? Was he pressing too hard last year, leading to an uptick in Ks from 15.2% to 21.3% (walks down from 13.3% to 7.1%)? I doubt I’ll own him anywhere, but we know what he’s capable of when healthy and who else is hitting around him in this lineup.
Take note: zero pitchers selected.
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