FAB Bidding - Week 16 Waiver Wire Targets

Week 15 brought many surprises and several superstar performances. Cheers to those of you entering your finals and all those progressing through the playoffs! With our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). In case you were not aware, several fantasy sports platforms are switching from FAAB to FAB in 2020, and RotoBaller will make that change as well.

As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.

Destroy your opponents in style as we look to my median FAB bid ranges and adds heading into Week 16, with Yahoo rostership rates from Monday night.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI) - FAB Bid: 50-100%

39% rostered

Hurts was the highest-scoring QB of the week in just his second career start thanks to 338 yards and four TDs (three pass, one rush). He only completed 24-of-44 passes but continued to step up and take shots, trading blows with Kyler Murray in an electric game. With 106 rushing yards in Week 14 and a healthy 11-63-1 ground line in Week 15, we have to feel safe projecting him for weekly top-12 output. He has a great spot against Dallas for Week 16 before a Week 17 date with Washington. And as if there was any doubt:gabriel dav

Jalen Hurts will start again Sunday vs. Cowboys, per HC Doug Pederson.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 21, 2020

Marcus Mariota (QB, LV) - FAB Bid: 3-5%

1% rostered

Many fantasy hearts were broken when Derek Carr pulled up lame on a first-quarter scramble last Thursday, but Mariota may lead the next generation of fantasy champions. He passed for 226 yards, a TD, and an INT alongside nine rushes for 88 yards and another score. That’s good for a top-10 week and his rushing potential gives us multiple paths to points. The cold water here is that he faces Miami’s defense in Week 16 and goes up to Denver for Week 17 (if Carr remains out).

Mitchell Trubisky (QB, CHI) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

12% rostered

Trubisky wasn’t great on Sunday, totaling only 202 yards with a TD and a red-zone interception. But thanks to David Montgomery, the Bears still walked away from Minnesota as victors. Still, Trubs has two three-TD games in his last four contests and draws a toothless Jags defense in Week 16. He then has a rematch with the Packers (who he put 3 TDs up against in Week 12) to close out the regular season.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

Le'Veon Bell (54% rostered) needs to be added everywhere available with CEH hurt, ditto Darrell Henderson (63%). Tony Pollard at 46% rostered is slightly below them with Ezekiel Elliott’s uncertain status but any leftover FAB can be thrown at him if the others are unavailable.

Ito Smith (RB, ATL) - FAB Bid: 25-40%

3% rostered

For those who can’t get the aforementioned big-ticket adds, Smith has been anointed as Atlanta’s lead runner per Raheem Morris.

#Falcons interim HC Raheem Morris told reporters that Todd Gurley’s role with the team has changed and Ito Smith is the lead back moving forward. Change is strictly because of how Smith has performed.

— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) December 21, 2020

The Falcons only had 12 combined carries from their RBs in Week 15, but Smith’s 24 yards on six carries looked far better than both Brian Hill (-2 rush yards) and Todd Gurley II (-1 rush yards) finishing in the red. One can’t anticipate Atlanta will have a chance to run much against Kansas City’s high-octane attack in Week 16 but Smith should be a source of at least 8-10 touches.

Salvon Ahmed (RB, MIA) - FAB Bid: 15-25%

34% rostered

Ahmed returned from a shoulder injury and ran the ball 23 times for 122 yards and a score, adding in a five-yard catch for fun. The effort was sorely needed with Miami’s pass-catchers occupying the infirmary, but the outlook is murky for Week 16 at Las Vegas. We may see Myles Gaskin return from the COVID-19 list, as well as DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki to balance out the heavy rush volume.

Sony Michel (RB, NE) - FAB Bid: 15-25%

19% rostered

Michel stepped up with an impressive 82 total yards on 11 touches against Miami with Damien Harris (ankle) out. The Pats hope Harris can return for Week 16 but they’re out of the playoffs and may opt for caution with their young RB. One must exercise caution here as the Pats and Bills play next Monday night, so Harris’ status may not be known on Sunday. And Cam Newton can barely move the ball, which hurts Michel’s chances of scoring.

Gus Edwards (RB, BAL) - 33% - FAB: 20-30% - Edwards and Dobbins are the 1-2 punch.
Benny Snell Jr. (RB, PIT) - 26% - FAB: 10-20% - Conner "nearly" played, but it's Conner.
Malcolm Brown (RB, LAR) - 16% - FAB: 8-12% - No Akers means he’ll be involved.
Frank Gore (RB, NYJ) - 24% - FAB: 3-5% - 23 carries, can’t ignore that volume.
Dare Ogunbowale (RB, JAX) - 1% - FAB: 2-4% - May start if Robinson can't go.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

Russell Gage (WR, ATL) - FAB Bid: 25-30%

24% rostered

Gage continues to shine when Julio Jones is out, as he caught 5-of-10 targets for 68 yards and a TD. This gives him three straight double-digit fantasy scores and 50-plus yards in four of his last five games. Calvin Ridley is an absolute monster but there’s plenty of room for Gage on this offense that needs to throw often. The ground game is a mess and Hayden Hurst doesn’t command attention. Fire up Gage against the Chiefs, a game that might see Matt Ryan throw it 50 times.

A.J. Green (WR, CIN) - FAB Bid: 10-12%

36% rostered

No one wants to bank on Ryan Finley or Brandon Allen, but Green may face Houston’s leaky secondary in Week 16 as a starter after Tyler Boyd suffered a head injury on Monday night. Tee Higgins should be the priority for Cincinnati’s pass attack, but it’s doubtful the Bengals play with a lead in Week 16 as they did against Pittsburgh. This means AJG should see 6-8 targets with the possibility for a lower floor should Boyd return.

Gabriel Davis (WR, BUF) - FAB Bid: 10-12%

9% rostered

Davis lost his three-game TD streak on Saturday but only by a yard, as he was tackled short on a crossing route. Josh Allen also overthrew him by a foot in the back of the endzone, just so you know that his 2-18-0 day could’ve looked differently. But that’s not why you’re here. Stefon Diggs is dealing with an ankle injury and John Brown is still working back from his IR stint, with limitations to either giving Davis a potential route to more volume for Week 16 at New England. It's clear that Buffalo trusts him to be on the field and his team-leading snaps should bear fruit with Diggs dinged.

Bills final WR snap count
Gabriel Davis 68
Stefon Diggs 67
Cole Beasley 45
Isaiah McKenzie 22
Jake Kumerow 5
Out of 73 plays

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) December 20, 2020

Tyron Johnson (WR, LAC) - FAB Bid: 2-4%

7% rostered

Johnson has scored in consecutive games and continues to elevate with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams playing hurt. His 59% snap rate was second to Jalen Guyton’s 80% mark, but Guyton has eclipsed 70% for eight straight weeks with roughly two catches per game in that span. Pit that against Johnson’s 6-55-1 and 3-61-1 lines of late and I’ll side with Tyron. He’s got the jets to go deep but has shown enough to be a flex play in 14-team leagues for Week 16 assuming Allen and Williams remain limited.

Allen Lazard (WR, GB) - 15% - FAB: 5-6% - 56 yards as No. 2 while MVS had 0.
Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR, JAX) - 16% - FAB: 4-6% - 17 targets in last 2 games.
Tim Patrick (WR, DEN) - 31% - FAB: 4-5% - One poor game doesn’t erase good run.
Zach Pascal (WR, IND) - 5% - FAB: 2-3% - 2 TDs are cool but unreliable workload.
Greg Ward (WR, PHI) - 3% - FAB: 2-3% - 3 TDs in last 3 games, Reagor hurt his ankle.
Kendrick Bourne (WR, SF) - 7% - FAB: 2-3% - Hail Mary TD is nice, remains solid dart.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

If either Tyler Higbee (50% rostered) or Austin Hooper (48%) are available then leap for them.

Jordan Akins (TE, HOU) - FAB Bid: 2-4%

4% rostered

If Akins had caught his wide-open TD in Week 14 then we’d be talking about a man with consecutive six-target games with 10+ PPR scores in each tilt. And while the Bengals are taking the Steelers out behind the shed right now, their defense is still a “green-means-go” matchup for Akins and the Texans. Don’t overlook this underrated avenue to a steady stream of valuable looks.

Irv Smith Jr. (TE, MIN) - FAB Bid: 2-4%

20% rostered

Smith’s day pivoted on a wide-open touchdown drop that hurt this writer’s soul. It was Tyler Conklin who had the better day with Kyle Rudolph out, but both should remain involved against a strong Saints team in Week 16. We know the floor is high but few available TEs will give you that comfort. We've seen him draw consistent opportunities in the red zone, it's just that we were used to seeing him convert them in the past.

Cole Kmet (TE, CHI) - FAB Bid: 2-4%

12% rostered

Kmet disappointed with only two catches in Week 15 -- the same tally as Jimmy Graham -- but that doesn’t erase back-to-back games with seven targets in Weeks 13-14. A dream date with the Jaguars in Week 16 has Kmet within the top-20 for desperate fantasy owners.

Jordan Reed (TE, SF) - FAB Bid: 1-3%

21% rostered

We’ll need to monitor George Kittle’s status heading into Week 16, but Reed remains the starting TE for now. San Fran loves to lean on their RBs but Arizona’s offense may press them into a high-scoring fight that demands tempo and throwing. Reed is the biggest target for the Niners and that’s led to a pair of TDs in their past three games.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams

Houston Texans Defense (vs. CIN) - 17% rostered - FAB Bid: 8-15%
Philadelphia Eagles Defense (at DAL) - 27% - FAB Bid: 5-8%
Washington Football Team Defense (vs. CAR) - 34% - FAB Bid: 3-4%

The Bengals showed life on Monday night against the Steelers, but remain a stellar matchup for streaming defenses. This goes double if Tyler Boyd can’t go and Joe Mixon remains out. Cincy is capable of playing well, they’re still a group of NFL players, but it doesn’t erase the horrors of the Joe Burrow-less 2020 thus far.

If you can’t get the Texans then perhaps the Washington Football Team will get the Panthers without Christian McCaffrey. Teddy Bridgewater is mobile in the pocket but Washington can apply serious pressure and force mistakes. But then you’re tied to Dwayne Haskins Jr. not landing the D in poor field positions. And the Eagles are still playing for the playoffs against a division rival behind an emerging QB stud that may put Dallas in a hole and needing to take risky action.

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