FAB Bidding - Week 3 Waiver Wire Targets

Along with our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). In case you were not aware, several fantasy sports platforms are switching from FAAB to FAB in 2020, and RotoBaller will make that change as well.

As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.

It's difficult to toe the line between appropriate action and overreaction, but following context-aware volume is typically the best strategy. Will you pounce on the players rising up from the injury-fueled Week 2 or let desperate teams try to fill their gaps? Are you the desperate team that lost players? Whatever you need, here are my median FAB bid ranges and adds heading into Week 3.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew II (QB, JAX) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

33% rostered

Minshew Mania 2.0 is picking up steam thanks to a 339-yard effort with a trio of TDs and 19 rush yards, yielding a top-10 performance. He was also intercepted twice -- the turnovers are part of the aggressive package -- but Jacksonville’s defense will often put them in shootout scenarios. He did this on the road against a respectable Tennessee defense, meaning his next two weeks against Miami and Cincinnati could be even better.

Gardner Minshew continues to prove he’s the real deal.

Week 2 Stats:
339 Passing Yards
30/45 Passing
3 Touchdowns
92.8 Passer Rating

First game of his career with 300+ passing yards and 3 touchdowns! pic.twitter.com/D6yUXo2Ibv

— Cougar Sports Network (@CougSportsNet) September 20, 2020

These next guys are in the 0-1% range.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (4% rostered) pulled Miami within three points of a win over Buffalo, completing 31-of-47 passes for 328 yards and two TDs. He added 12 gritty rush yards in true Fitzmagic fashion. This comes after a poor Week 1 where he got the “vote of confidence” from head coach Brian Flores, but now he’ll take on a beleaguered Jacksonville squad in Week 3 and should be in the streaming conversation.

Justin Herbert (4% rostered) played admirably in his NFL debut, nearly leading the Chargers to an upset over the Chiefs in relief of an injured Tyrod Taylor (chest). Head coach Anthony Lynn said Taylor is the starter if he’s healthy, but it’ll be difficult putting Herbert’s 311-yard performance back in the bottle.

Ryan Tannehill (45% rostered) is enticing coming off a 4-TD game but has a tough schedule upcoming (at MIN, PIT, BUF).

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

Jerick McKinnon (RB, SF) - FAB Bid: 20-25%

25% rostered

Why is a guy who only touched the ball three times here? Well, McKinnon wound up with 77 yards and a TD thanks in large part to a 55-yard run on 3rd and 31. He’s only touched the ball nine times over two games as San Fran eases him in, but has put up 121 yards and two scores. With Raheem Mostert dealing with a mild MCL sprain and Tevin Coleman expected to miss multiple weeks per Adam Schefter, McKinnon may be a bigger piece as they feel more comfortable increasing his workload.

? ALERT ? Jerick McKinnon gets the New York Giants next week!!!!

— Fantasy Football Troglodyte (@FFTroglodyte) September 20, 2020

Mike Davis (RB, CAR) - FAB Bid: 20-25%

7% rostered

Christian McCaffrey is reportedly out for 4-6 weeks with a high ankle sprain, but Davis did well in his stead on Sunday. The 27-year-old came in and caught all eight of his targets for 74 yards with Carolina in catch-up mode, showing that the Panthers wouldn’t have to scale back receiving work for their RB with CMC missing time. If you started either 1-1 or 0-2 then I'd ramp up the bids on Davis since he'll be unusable later on but should provide a temporary boost in the next month or so.

Darrell Henderson Jr. (RB, LAR) - FAB Bid: 15-20%

33% rostered

The Rams carousel spins on, as Cam Akers was forced out early with a rib injury and cracked the door for Henderson to hang 121 total yards (and a TD) on 14 touches. Malcolm Brown only posted 11-47-0 on the ground and was apparently hindered by a finger injury towards the end of the game. With Henderson’s strong play as both runner (12-81-1) and receiver (2-40-0), he becomes the RB with more upside that early fantasy moves are about. Perhaps Akers doesn’t miss time and we get a full-blown Hydra backfield, but if it’s between Henderson and Brown then you’ll want the second-year RB that just balled out.

Dion Lewis (RB, NYG) - FAB Bid: 10-15%

6% rostered

Lewis doesn’t excite me as a runner and I expect NYG to bring in veteran help, perhaps Devonta Freeman? (See update below) Still, it was Lewis that notched 14 touches with 56 yards and a score with Saquon Barkley out for the year. Lewis should have a great opportunity in 2020 given his leg up on any newcomer and Wayne Gallman (1% rostered) but temper expectations for Week 3 against San Francisco. I’d have Gallman around 6-8%, for what it’s worth.

*Updated now that Freeman has reportedly signed, pending the physical. Freeman will take time to ramp up and can't vault over defenders in his face like Barkley could. Lewis is a fine PPR add still.
Devonta Freeman (RB, NYG) - FAB Bid: 20-25%

Myles Gaskin (RB, MIA) - FAB Bid: 4-5%

16% rostered

Gaskin looks like Miami’s best overall running back compared to Jordan Howard and Matt Breida, but this is true desperation territory. Breida had a nifty 7-37-0 rushing line alongside a two-yard catch and Howard got the cheap TD plunge but had four yards on five carries. Then Gaskin had 7-46-0 rushing and 6-36-0 receiving as their all-around threat. Perhaps Breida will get more work as he gains familiarity with the system and Gaskin phases out, but for now, he could fall into another 10-plus touch game in Week 3 against Jacksonville.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

Russell Gage (WR, ATL) - FAB Bid: 10-12%

23% rostered

Look, Julio Jones will eventually get his and Calvin Ridley will chill out some, but there’s little reason to expect the Falcons passing game to relax in 2020. Todd Gurley is unreliable and the team has surrendered 78 points in two games, with Week 2’s Super Bowl LI-esque blown lead highlighting their shortcomings. But it’s a big green flag for Matt Ryan and his wide receivers, which has led to Gage topping 16 PPR points in each of their first two games. Even if they control the game better against Chicago in Week 3, the next game at Green Bay could be another shootout. He’s still available in far too many leagues.

N'Keal Harry (WR, NE) - FAB Bid: 8-10%

27% rostered

Entering Monday, Harry is the only wide receiver with a sub-50% rostered rate to have double-digit targets in Week 2. His 12 looks resulted in eight receptions for 72 yards and while there were a few hiccups, he showed promise and his role appears secure. The catch where he ate a helmet-to-helmet hit that resulted in a disqualification was brutal, but he held on. They may not need the passing game much in Week 3 against the Raiders, but Week 4’s date with the Chiefs will surely call for the aerial attack.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND) - FAB Bid: 8-10%

15% rostered

Pittman stepped up with six targets to pace Indy’s WR corps on Sunday despite entering as a game-time decision (toe). Upstart Parris Campbell is out indefinitely after suffering a PCL injury in Week 2, meaning Pittman and Zach Pascal (0% rostered) need to step up. I know T.Y. Hilton backers will hope this spurs him on to come alive (that dropped TD, oof) but facts are that even this run-heavy team needs reliable WRs and his health was proven with more play.

Rookie Snap Count Risers:

Antonio Gibson
25.71% ⬆️ 65.15%

Jalen Reagor
58.82% ⬆️ 84.51%

Tee Higgins
22.06% ⬆️ 65.22%

Michael Pittman Jr.
52.70% ⬆️ 91.78%#FantasyFootball

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) September 21, 2020

Keelan Cole (WR, JAX) - FAB Bid: 6-8%

4% rostered

With two games in the books, Cole is Jacksonville’s leader in targets (12), catches (11), and receiving TDs (2) with 105 yards, trailing D.J. Chark Jr. by just four. Minshew isn’t afraid to break out and extend plays, giving all WRs a chance to shed coverage. Chark is still the No. 1 but Cole has rewarded the early attention by catching nearly all of his looks. With the Jags defense unable to build or maintain a lead, look for Cole to be a big part of the offense through all four quarters.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

Logan Thomas (TE, WSH) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

32% rostered

Perhaps you’ll see Thomas dropped in several leagues after a disappointed 4-26-0 line in Week 2, but I saw a TE receive nine targets to give him eight or more looks in each 2020 game thus far. The combined 8-63-1 line on 17 total targets is humbling and one hopes Dwayne Haskins Jr. finds a groove as the year progresses, but it appears Thomas is one of his favorite targets. Once again, Washington will be playing from behind often and needing to pass. Follow the volume. He gets Cleveland in Week 3, who just made Drew Sample look incredible, before a tough home date with Baltimore.

Tyler Eifert (TE, JAX) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

10% rostered

Eifert hauled in 3-of-6 targets for 36 yards and a big TD after seeing just one target in Week 1. He’s more of a TE2 with upside thanks to the modest volume and we hope six targets isn’t his ceiling, but we’ve touched on Jacksonville’s soft upcoming schedule (vs. MIA, at CIN, at HOU, vs. DET) and Eifert should be involved. Those playing in TE-premium formats or 14-plus teams with multiple flexes should check in on Eifert before his revenge game against the Bengals in Week 4.

Jordan Reed (TE, SF) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

7% rostered

Here’s hoping you deep-leaguers followed last week’s cheap flyer advice! Reed turned up in a major way against the Jets, supplying a pair of TDs with 50 yards by catching seven of his eight targets. The 49ers were down Jimmy Garoppolo and Raheem Mostert for most of the game after already missing George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, so Reed had ample opportunity to step up. Kittle is a superstar, but we may see more two-TE sets moving forward from SF, especially given their injuries at RB and WR.

Jordan Reed scoring 2 TDs while everyone in the NFL gets hurt pic.twitter.com/qUzUJh25Tc

— PFF (@PFF) September 20, 2020

Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

2% rostered

You won’t see Dallas trailing by multiple scores for the bulk of the game often, but Schultz benefited from their crazy comeback against Atlanta all the same. With nine receptions on 10 looks for 88 yards and a touchdown, Schultz’s only mistake was a fumble -- but everyone on Dallas caught fumblitis on Sunday. He’s the lowest-rostered piece of Dallas’ starting offense, but still behind Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb.

Mo Alie-Cox (TE, IND) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

1% rostered

Alie-Cox posterized the Vikings for 111 yards on just five catches (six targets) to pace Indy’s receivers with Jack Doyle and Trey Burton out. Philip Rivers has enjoyed connections with ex-basketball-players-turned-TEs in the past, so it’s possible the Colts open up avenues for Alie-Cox to play even when Doyle (and Burton) are back. If the injury to Parris Campbell is severe then a big body over the middle may be warmly welcomed.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense (vs CAR) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

50% rostered

After dealing with a savvy vet who can mitigate rushes in Drew Brees, the Bucs carved up the Panthers for five sacks, two interceptions, and two fumble recoveries. While their going to Denver’s altitude in Week 3 is far from ideal, they may face a backup QB in Jeff Driskel. And he may be without his top wideout in Courtland Sutton. If you left Tampa on waivers last week and missed their solid Carolina performance, let’s see if you can get in for Week 3.

Indianapolis Colts Defense (vs NYJ) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

42% rostered

The Colts just made Kirk Cousins look like a backup in Week 2 and now face a depleted Jets roster at home. They’ve logged at least three sacks in each of their first two games and should have no problem putting the Jets into desperation mode within the first half. Sam Darnold can make plenty of mistakes and there’s no better streamer in the pool.

Washington Football Team Defense (at CLE) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

16% rostered

Washington’s ferocious front seven managed to sack Kyler Murray three times and hold the uptempo Cardinals to 30 points -- a relatively good effort. And they had eight sacks with three turnovers against the Eagles in Week 1, so this matchup with the skittish Baker Mayfield could prove fruitful. I fully expect the Browns to heavily utilize their star RB duo at first so streamers will need Dwayne Haskins Jr. to put up a fight on offense, but those in deeper waters could do far worse than this talented line.

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