RADIO
The RotoBaller Head-to-Head rankings review series winds down with a view of first base through the lens of our three-man expert panel of fantasy accuracy champ Nick Mariano and premier staffers JB Branson and Bill Dubiel.
The top tier could conceivably have a new kingpin at any point, and not all of our experts believe it is a true three-man top of the crop. The star power drops off quite quickly at this position, yet it does go deep in terms of power and RBI production.
There are more veteran question marks that permeate the position as we start to move into the middle and lower tiers. There is a not of young, promising upside performers here, and the guys at the top are simply steady in higher level productivity.
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First Base Tiered Ranks - H2H Points Leagues (March)
In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was recently named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season. You can see his secret sauce below! Additionally, industry legend Scott Engel recently joined the RotoBaller team and provides his insights as well. Scott is an FSWA Hall Of Famer and award winner.
| Ranking | Tier | Player Name | Position | Nick | JB | Bill |
| 1 | 1 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 24 | 23 | 16 |
| 2 | 1 | Freddie Freeman | 1B | 26 | 24 | 21 |
| 3 | 1 | Anthony Rizzo | 1B | 35 | 26 | 26 |
| 4 | 2 | Joey Votto | 1B | 40 | 33 | 23 |
| 5 | 2 | Rhys Hoskins | 1B/OF | 39 | 43 | 39 |
| 6 | 2 | Cody Bellinger | 1B/OF | 47 | 48 | 47 |
| 7 | 2 | Matt Carpenter | 1B/2B/3B | 73 | 42 | 38 |
| 8 | 3 | Daniel Murphy | 1B/2B | 77 | 71 | 72 |
| 9 | 3 | Jose Abreu | 1B | 70 | 85 | 98 |
| 10 | 3 | Robinson Cano | 1B/2B | 97 | 83 | 82 |
| 11 | 3 | Edwin Encarnacion | 1B | 94 | 114 | 67 |
| 12 | 3 | Jesus Aguilar | 1B | 100 | 90 | 90 |
| 13 | 3 | Carlos Santana | 1B/3B | 88 | 94 | 105 |
| 14 | 3 | J.T. Realmuto | C/1B | 93 | 88 | 114 |
| 15 | 4 | Travis Shaw | 1B/2B/3B | 117 | 91 | 97 |
| 16 | 4 | Matt Olson | 1B | 102 | 109 | 111 |
| 17 | 4 | Joey Gallo | 3B/1B/OF | 90 | 122 | 158 |
| 18 | 4 | Max Muncy | 1B/2B/3B | 162 | 111 | 150 |
| 19 | 4 | Miguel Cabrera | 1B | 120 | 160 | 155 |
| 20 | 4 | Ryan Braun | 1B/OF | 141 | 165 | 131 |
| 21 | 4 | Eric Hosmer | 1B | 161 | 135 | 147 |
| 22 | 4 | Ian Desmond | OF/1B | 152 | 149 | 143 |
| 23 | 4 | Jurickson Profar | SS/3B/1B/2B | 196 | 130 | 125 |
| 24 | 5 | Buster Posey | C/1B | 232 | 162 | 152 |
| 25 | 5 | Luke Voit | 1B | 184 | 189 | 174 |
| 26 | 5 | Justin Smoak | 1B | 157 | 228 | 169 |
| 27 | 5 | Yuli Gurriel | 1B/2B/3B | 214 | 214 | 172 |
| 28 | 5 | Jose Martinez | OF/1B | 271 | 192 | 140 |
| 29 | 5 | Tyler White | 1B | 165 | 236 | 229 |
| 30 | 6 | Trey Mancini | 1B/OF | 198 | 230 | 230 |
| 31 | 6 | Josh Bell | 1B | 215 | 247 | 242 |
| 32 | 6 | C.J. Cron | 1B | 259 | 233 | 220 |
| 33 | 6 | Ryan Zimmerman | 1B | 201 | 297 | 238 |
| 34 | 6 | Brandon Belt | 1B/OF | 236 | 322 | 218 |
| 35 | 6 | Jake Bauers | 1B/OF | 261 | 255 | 279 |
| 36 | 6 | Pete Alonso | 1B | 331 | 241 | 236 |
| 37 | 6 | Miguel Sano | 1B/3B | 347 | 288 | 179 |
| 38 | 6 | Marwin Gonzalez | 1B/2B/SS/OF | 245 | 256 | 316 |
| 39 | 6 | Wilmer Flores | 1B/3B/2B | 191 | 396 | #N/A |
| 40 | 6 | Justin Bour | 1B | 285 | 347 | 290 |
| 41 | 6 | Tucker Barnhart | C/1B | 308 | 307 | #N/A |
| 42 | 6 | Ryan O'Hearn | 1B | 348 | 344 | 314 |
| 43 | 7 | Yonder Alonso | 1B | 448 | 267 | 295 |
| 44 | 7 | Ehire Adrianza | SS/1B/3B | #N/A | #N/A | 342 |
| 45 | 7 | Jay Bruce | OF/1B | 415 | 282 | #N/A |
| 46 | 7 | Kendrys Morales | 1B | 262 | 502 | 297 |
| 47 | 7 | Niko Goodrum | 1B/2B/3B/SS/OF | 370 | 380 | 346 |
| 48 | 7 | Ryon Healy | 1B | 432 | 421 | 270 |
| 49 | 7 | Adam Duvall | 1B/OF | 473 | #N/A | 317 |
| 50 | 7 | Ronald Guzman | 1B | 367 | 427 | #N/A |
| 51 | 7 | Albert Pujols | 1B | 409 | 522 | 284 |
| 52 | 7 | Eric Thames | 1B/OF | 436 | 409 | 372 |
| 53 | 7 | Ryan McMahon | 1B/3B/2B | 411 | 401 | #N/A |
| 54 | 7 | Mitch Moreland | 1B | 364 | 516 | 340 |
| 55 | 7 | John Hicks | C/1B | 466 | 382 | #N/A |
| 56 | 7 | Colin Moran | 3B/1B | 459 | 445 | 394 |
| 57 | 7 | Steve Pearce | 1B/2B/OF | 455 | 523 | 350 |
| 58 | 7 | Neil Walker | 1B/2B | 413 | 494 | #N/A |
| 59 | 8 | Tyler Austin | 1B | 503 | 492 | 367 |
| 60 | 8 | Chris Davis | 1B | 442 | 486 | #N/A |
| 61 | 8 | Rowdy Tellez | 1B | 482 | #N/A | #N/A |
| 62 | 8 | Greg Bird | 1B | 460 | 515 | #N/A |
| 63 | 8 | Dan Vogelbach | 1B | 445 | 576 | #N/A |
| 64 | 8 | Jedd Gyorko | 1B/3B | 518 | 559 | #N/A |
| 65 | 8 | Matt Adams | 1B | 584 | 536 | #N/A |
| 66 | 8 | Mark Canha | 1B | #N/A | 566 | #N/A |
| 67 | 8 | A.J. Reed | 1B | 567 | #N/A | #N/A |
| 68 | 8 | Nate Lowe | 1B | 621 | 532 | #N/A |
| 69 | 8 | Victor Caratini | C/1B | #N/A | 585 | #N/A |
| 70 | 8 | Miguel Rojas | 1B/2B/3B/SS | #N/A | 592 | #N/A |
| 71 | 8 | David Freese | 1B/3B | 608 | #N/A | #N/A |
| 72 | 8 | Chris Shaw | 1B | 646 | #N/A | #N/A |
Rankings Analysis – Top Tiers
Tier One
Paul Goldschmidt unanimously still leads our first base rankings, but not by much. He is no longer a first round pick, but a move to St. Louis should keep his mostly impressive all-around output stable, even if he does not quite give you the significant steals advantage he used to.
Freddie Freeman may have not delivered his best season yet in terms of power, and at this point next year, some of our analysts could be considering Freeman over Goldschmidt in any format.
Nick clearly believes that Anthony Rizzo does not belong in the top tier. His homer and run totals last year were disappointing, but JB and Bill are maintaining their high-levels of faith in him.
Tier Two
Nick is definitely not on board with keeping Joey Votto at the top of this tier and I have to agree with him. The overall production was down in a big way last year, and at his advancing age with suspicions of lingering back issues by some fantasy analysts, I am not willing to invest here either.
We could see an improved batting average from Rhys Hoskins this year, which could naturally lead to better H2H Points output overall.
Nick seems to be very skeptical that Matt Carpenter can repeat his power production from last season. He has him nearly 40 spots behind Bill’s overall placement.
Rankings Analysis - Middle Tiers
Tier Three
Mariano is more confident in a power rebound from Jose Abreu. JB is definitely down on Edwin Encarnacion and I agree with him. The bat speed is slowing and the plate discipline numbers have been on a downward trend.
There is some skepticism on Jesus Aguilar in some fantasy circles, but it’s not outstanding among our crew.
Bill is not buying into a better season from Carlos Santana. But from an H2H perspective, the strikeout and walk rates were still very good last season. Maybe that is why Nick has him rated higher than the rest of the panel.
Tier Four
Our panel had a lot of confidence in Matt Olson, as did the A’s, before his hamate bone injury struck him down during the opening series in Japan.
Obviously, Nick is willing to take into account Joey Gallo’s pure on-base skills more than Bill. The strikeouts are no doubt frustrating, but he does not hurt you here as much as in 5x5 batting average formats.
JB believes Max Muncy is for real, and the Dodgers’ newfound slugger can also compensate for some Ks with on-base abilities.
Miguel Cabrera had a strong spring, which offers hope for Mariano’s elevated rating of him.
Ryan Braun can still help owners in H2H points formats when he is available, but JB may be expecting a sharper decline this season.
Tier Five
Bill is the biggest believer in Luke Voit. He will continue to wage a war with Greg Bird for ultimate playing time while Aaron Hicks is out. He should still play regularly shuttling between first base and DH until the official decision comes when Hicks returns.
There was a drop in the power department that really turned off JB to Justin Smoak, but the K/BB numbers may remain solid enough to not warrant the overall ranking more than 60 spots behind Nick.
Jose Martinez has really made his mark as a pure hitter and does have legit H2H appeal when he is in the lineup. But as Nick indicates with his lowered ranking, where is the consistent playing time going to come from?
Tyler White did display some prodigious power potential and showed he could offset his strikeouts with some walks last season. Yet JB and Bill seemingly need to be more convinced that he will be impactful over a full regular season.
Rankings Analysis – Lower Tiers
Tier Six
This is a thick tier with some interesting names. Trey Mancini was considerably less efficient for H2H purposes in 2018, and the strikeout totals serve up serious alarm bells. C.J. Cron has great power output for this tier, but you will also pay dearly in some other negative departments.
Nick is still maintaining some confidence in Ryan Zimmerman, and will obviously live with what he provides when he is actually active. Jake Bauers has an alluring power/speed combo, but the strikeout numbers drop him to this tier and cramps his upside a bit in the H2H format.
I am with JB on the higher ranking of Peter Alonso. He could really soar among anyone in this group, with the potential of a .280 average and 25-plus homers.
Justin Bour certainly does not win the favor of JB in the move to the American League. At this point, he will give you a good amount of power and on-base skills to offset the strikeouts. Ryan O’Hearn has some power promise but his splits indicate he may not be a consistent starter. He only had two extra-base hits in 37 at-bats versus lefties last year.
Tier Seven
It appears Nick is still not a believer in Yonder Alonso’s newfound power over the past two seasons. He has Alonso over 170 spots lower than JB.
Only JB seems to believe that a move out of New York might somewhat boost the outlook of Jay Bruce.
Maybe it’s because of age, but JB is seriously down on Kendrys Morales.
As Bill indicates, Albert Pujols is still viable as a late flier. He had a good spring and will continue to get some consistent playing time.
If Eric Thames gets pushed back into regular at-bats at any point, he showed in 2017 that he can hit homers in bunches, and also can draw some walks, but the results were often all-or-nothing, too.
Ryan McMahon has not backed down in his battle for playing time with Garrett Hampson this spring, and he has some nifty appeal by this point of the first base pool.
Tier Eight
Chris Davis maybe has some lingering appeal in name only, but he did not impress this spring and was likely passed by in many drafts.
Blue Jays prospect Rowdy Tellez displayed impressive power this spring and could be back from the minors at some point later this year.
If Dan Vogelbach gets more playing time at some point this season, he does have on-base and RBI promise.
Mark Canha appears to be in line for more quality playing time with Olson out, but he will only be part of a platoon with Jurickson Profar.
More Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis
