Rest of Season Starting Pitcher Rankings (May Update)

The calendar's turned to May and we're heading out to the mound for a Rest-of-Season update of our mixed rankings analysis. RotoBaller writers Nick Mariano, Pierre Camus, Bill Dubiel and Scott Engel want you to crush the competition and know that rankings can't end on draft day. Check out our fantasy baseball rankings dashboard for the latest and greatest ranks at any time.

Starting pitching is necessary to claim a title in most leagues, but you can take many routes to get there. Those who invested in aces may be hurting early, but lots of them are simply suffering from noise. Whether you're hunting insight on whether to abandon ship on some top arms or seeking out lower-owned hurlers to buy into, we've got you covered here with ranks that go 175 arms deep.

Without any more delay, let's break down the 2019 starting pitcher rest-of-season rankings for May.

Starting Pitcher Tiered Ranks - 5x5 Mixed Leagues (May)

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was recently named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season. You can see his secret sauce below! Additionally, industry legend Scott Engel recently joined the RotoBaller team and provides his insights as well. Scott is an FSWA Hall Of Famer and award winner.

Rankings Analysis - Top Tiers

Tier One

Being a top-tier pitcher has led to mixed results thus far, but these five arms still demand respect and should be viewed as true SP1’s. Scherzer is battling ridiculously poor luck despite gains in his strikeout rate and a trimmed walk rate for beautiful peripherals. Verlander continues to stave off Father Time and deliver quality starts on command. Some of deGrom’s turbulence can be blamed on injury, yet he still has 49 strikeouts in 32 innings. If healthy, he’s a pitching god. Bauer and Cole are both putting any doubts of being a one-year wonder to bed.

Tier Two

Sale’s April sent off the loudest of alarms, as reduced velocity and shoddy command led to horrid results and an admission that he’d “never felt so lost on the mound.” I remain cautious, but he’s started to look better lately and his ceiling remains the No. 1 pitcher in baseball.

Carrasco and Nola also own cold starts, though Carrasco is one of the better buy-lows out there. The 5.60 ERA/1.33 WHIP obscure a beautiful 2.94 SIERA -- better than 2018’s 3.03 mark -- and the 50 strikeouts in 35 ⅓ IP (33.1% K rate) point to a 250-strikeout season. Compare that to Nola, whose SIERA has risen from 3.40 in ‘18 to 4.40 in ‘19. Nola’s poor 8.3% swinging-strike rate is way down from 2018’s 12.4% clip and mixed with more walks and more homers for a heartbeat-inducing 1.61 WHIP and average 22.8% strikeout rate. We know he’s got more in the tank, but you can see I’m the low man here.

Tier Three

Syndergaard reminded everyone of his godlike talent by twirling a complete-game shutout and making his own offense with a solo homer. Still more thrower than refined pitcher, Thor is still a high-end SP2 with the raw ability to one day become more. Kershaw is healthy now and can be an anchor for as long as health holds, decreased velocity and all. Greinke remains one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball, especially with Chase Field’s humidor in tow.

Paxton’s ranking came as the injury news was developing and he’s not supposed to miss more than a few turns, so I still buy the double-digit strikeout performances that we saw in late April. Castillo continues to ascend the ranks, though his walk rate sits around 10% and he entered May with a mere 50% first-strike rate. He leads the league in pitching from behind in the count, something that’s tough to bank on moving forward. Obviously, I (and we) still view him as a stud but don’t be surprised as that 1.97 ERA creeps towards the 3.52 SIERA.

Rankings Analysis - Middle Tiers

Tier Four

I have Flaherty and Glasnow ranked ahead of Castillo, for instance. Not by much, but I like that Flaherty has brought his walk rate down from 9.6% in ‘18 to 6.5% here while increased his swinging-strike rate by a hair (13.4% to 13.6%). The longball has done him dirty thus far, taking a career trend and injecting steroids into it with the ‘19 HR surge, but the 3.42 SIERA has me buying in long-term.

And Glasnow, well he’s just a Georgia peach, ain’t he? Despite this being the year of hard contact, Statcast grades him with a 29.9% hard-hit rate yielded after that sat at 38.2% in ‘18. Joining that is a mere 4.4% walk rate (11.1% in ‘18), which creates a star.

For our ranking purposes, most were in before the extent of Taillon’s injury was known and I dropped him towards Mike Clevinger as a result. We’re still in the intel-gathering phase here, but I lean pessimistic with elbow injuries.

Tier Five

I went head-to-head with Derek Carty’s THE BAT projection system before the season began, with Caleb Smith being someone he liked a lot more than me. Our resident (and possibly only remaining) Marlins fan, Pierre, claims he totally called this in his preseason evaluation of the Marlins' young staff. Smith's inability to work deep into games and accrue wins on Miami scared me off, as well as a likely innings cap since he threw just 77 ⅓ IP in ‘18, though I liked his talents. Now, even Smith’s own mother wouldn’t have predicted how red-hot the southpaw would scream out of the gates with a 0.83 WHIP and a 26.9% K-BB% that ranks fifth out of qualified starters. He won’t last all year, at least in the rotation, and so I can’t go top-100, but he is no fluke either.

In fact, he also liked Matthew Boyd more than me...but I liked Cole Hamels more, so I promise I have something to offer! I’ve also been higher than most on Collin McHugh throughout the preseason, which paid off handsomely through his first four starts but then Texas happened. Oy. I still believe in that sick slider that he brought back in the bullpen last season even as his .229 BABIP regresses -- hopefully, the low 63.3% strand rate regressing helps balance it out as Houston wins many games behind him.

Tier Six

Here’s where the question marks start to rise up, but the upside remains startable in most matchups. I won’t blame anyone for moving on from Darvish since he seems to have caught whatever Tyler Chatwood had last season -- 27 walks in 32 ⅔ innings! -- and an MLB-worst 17.8% walk rate for qualified starters. The 13% swinging-strike rate offers some light at the end of the tunnel, but this rank only reflects what he could be again. I’m treating him like a guy in the Minors that I’m stashing as he stays far from my starting lineup.

Ignoring the injury-related Steven Matz low rank for me, the widest “low gap” that I can speak to is Trevor Williams. I respect his ability to outperform peripherals by suppressing hard contact (career 0.86 HR/9) but it makes for a tightrope act. Pittsburgh is unlikely to make him into a 15-game winner in 2019 and the 18.1% strikeout rate is 69th out of 85 qualified SP. No, that’s not nice -- the added whiffs this season means these low-K guys burn extra. Even with a healthy 3.74 ERA/1.11 WHIP through 43 ⅓ IP this season, Williams is ranked 322nd in 5x5 leagues.

Rankings Analysis - Lower Tiers

Tier Seven

What I said for Williams goes for Mikolas as well. And the injury pessimism is cranked to 11 on Severino, who is expected to be gone through the All-Star break, but we still dream of that August/September boost.

Looks like I’m a big ol’ Eflin hater, especially after he just tossed seven frames of one-run ball on Sunday night. While that trimmed his ERA to an even 3.00 through seven starts (42 IP), the 4.32 FIP and 4.68 xFIP rose a bit. His 31 K’s in the 42 frames are in Trevor Williams territory yet Eflin’s 1.50 HR/9 is aligned with the 1.55 career mark. Fangraphs has his hard-hit rate dropping from 29.1% in ‘18 to 21.2%, but Statcast has it rising from 33.2% to 34.5% with a slight rise in average exit velocity yielded. I side with Statcast and SIERA, so I’ll let you guys have all the Eflin fun.

Tier Eight

I don’t want this piece to be soaked in Haterade, but I can’t ignore being 120 slots lower on Stroman than the next-lowest ranker. The 2.20 ERA/1.20 WHIP is great and he’s even upped his strikeout rate to a healthy 22.8% (17.2% in ‘18) -- but his 3.81 xFIP and 4.19 SIERA are nearly identical to 2018. Statcast has his average exit velo up half a tick and after yielding an average launch angle lower than 0.5 degrees in his last four seasons, it’s up to five degrees in ‘19. Despite that, he’s yet to give up a homer. I accept being slow to accept Stroman, maybe I’m mistaken, but I just don’t see sustainable growth. Odorizzi is in the same camp, with a 4.48 xFIP and 4.34 SIERA behind his 2.78 ERA/1.09 WHIP.

In SP-eligible-but-not-really-SP news, John Gant has been a beast so far. Out of 223 pitchers that have had at least 40 batted balls off of them, Gant’s 83.5 mph average exit velocity on flies and liners is the lowest figure. Hitters simply aren’t getting good wood on his filth and I’m digging it. And in other news, my bold prediction about Anibal Sanchez being awesome is aging so very poorly, sigh.

Tier Nine

This tier has serious upside and I probably should have Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Woodruff, Spencer Turnbull and Martin Perez a little higher. DeSclafani has allowed just one run in his last three starts combined, yielding just nine hits with 20 strikeouts over 17 ⅔ IP. Woodruff has a beautiful 45/12 K/BB rate and 3.33 FIP/3.53 xFIP/3.63 SIERA underneath the 4.71 ERA, he just needs to get that command right. Turnbull’s turned in one poor start out of seven thus far, allowing two earned runs in his last four starts (24 innings) despite facing Boston and Philly alongside easier KC and Pittsburgh matchups. Perez had to open the season in Minnesota’s bullpen but eight shutout frames against the Astros is a strong signal that he’s hitting a stride.

Tier 10 & 11

Tier 10 kicks off with a Jimmy Nelson stash and ends with a Forrest Whitley stash. Nelson’s first rehab appearance came at Triple-A on Sunday, where he allowed three runs on two hits and four walks with three strikeouts in 3 ⅓ innings. Let’s hope that control comes back to him in short order and the 2017 Nelson rears his head. Don’t count on Nelson to reliably start for you before June. Whitley continues to show strikeout stuff at Triple-A (18 in 14 IP) but a 7.71 ERA/1.43 WHIP is rough, so a promotion isn’t pressing.

Tier 11 has my favorite stash, though, in Mr. Luzardo. The early-season shoulder injury doesn’t dampen my enthusiasm for the 21-year-old southpaw, as he was never going to pitch a full season’s worth of frames. The A’s have little rotation depth and all Luzardo did at age-20 was post a combined 2.88 ERA with 129 strikeouts in 109 ⅓ innings between High-A, Double-A and Triple-A in ‘18. He’ll get to call Oakland’s spacious park home and I can’t wait to see him in the show.

Tiers 12, 13 and 14

There’s little to see here in terms of upside, but Tier 12 has potential in Mitch Keller and Jonathan Loaisiga. Keller may take Taillon’s rotation spot down the road, but Pittsburgh has stated they don’t want to rush his development until he’s ready rather than forcing the majors due to injury needs. Loaisiga is stepping into James Paxton’s rotation slot, but he shouldn’t be needed for long.

Unlucky Tier 13 can bring you some other injury stashes in Taijuan Walker and Dinelson Lamet, as well as Arizona’s Jon Duplantier, who may step into Zack Godley’s rotation spot. Houston’s Framber Valdez has some appeal should he get a crack at the bigs again, which I’d anticipate since McHugh and Brad Peacock can’t stay in the rotation all year long (innings) and Wade Miley is Wade Miley.

You don’t want to venture into Tier 14, but those who still believe in Touki Toussaint making it as a starter rather than reliever are free to buy in for a penny. I think he joins fellow Tier 14-er Luiz Gohara in Atlanta’s bullpen someday, though the Braves could trade one or both of them for reinforcements elsewhere. Their rotation pipeline is sick. Other intriguing names would another couple of rehabbing A’s in Sean Manaea and A.J. Puk. It saddens me that we’ve been robbed of so many great pitching performances in lieu of Aaron Brooks box scores to open ‘19, but I dream of warmer days with sharp curveballs.

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