Updated Starting Pitcher Rankings - 5x5 Roto (Mixed Leagues)

We're back up on the bump for this edition of our mixed rankings analysis, and not a moment too soon. The 2019 baseball season is already here! RotoBaller writers Nick Mariano, JB Branson, Bill Dubiel, Pierre Camus, and Scott Engel want to make sure you are prepared for last-minute drafts, so they have given their preseason rankings a final update. Check out our fantasy baseball rankings dashboard for a current list any time.

Starting pitching may be one of your first priorities on draft day, as there can be a pretty significant drop-off after the first few true aces. That doesn't mean there aren't great values to be found in later rounds--in fact, if you decide to wait on starting pitcher there are enough mid-tier options to round out a pretty competitive staff.

Without any more delay, let's break down the 2019 starting pitcher rankings for March.

Starting Pitcher Tiered Ranks - 5x5 Mixed Leagues (March)

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was recently named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season. You can see his secret sauce below! Additionally, industry legend Scott Engel recently joined the RotoBaller team and provides his insights as well. Scott is an FSWA Hall Of Famer and award winner.

Rankings Analysis - Top Tiers

Tier One

I am a huge fan of waiting on starting pitching, particularly with so many elite bats to be had in Round 1 and early Round 2. I haven't wound up with any of these three starting pitchers in any of my drafts this year, and I promise you I won't own them come Opening Day. That doesn't mean they aren't absolutely outstanding. Scherzer in particular is one of the safest picks you can make. Averaging his last six seasons, you get one of the most impressive stretches in baseball history; he's averaged 218 innings pitched, 270 strikeouts and just a shade under 18 wins per year. Chris Sale is still a strikeout/ERA machine and he'll get plenty of wins as well, but he did only throw 158 innings last season. Jacob deGrom was an incredibly worthy Cy Young Award-winner last season, although his SIERA indicates it's probably too much to expect a 1.70 ERA again this year. Just because I won't own any of these three doesn't mean you shouldn't, particularly if you get to Round 2 and they're available.

Tier Two

This is where I wind up taking my first pitchers of each draft. These are for the most part younger guys or veterans who have established themselves but still have plenty of upside to push into Tier 1. I find myself coming away with Carlos Carrasco most often out of this group; Carrasco had a terrific 2018 season, striking out batters at a 29.5% clip and posting the highest K-BB% of his career. While his BABIP was fairly normal, his SIERA (3.03) indicates that his stellar 3.38 ERA could have been even higher with a little help. He's a perennial candidate for 200+ strikeouts and on an Indians team in the worst division in baseball (IMO) he'll get at least 14 wins if he stays healthy all season. Non-zero chance that Carrasco returns the most value out of any Indians starter this year.

Tier Three

I thought I was going to be lower than most on James Paxton, but my colleagues have even less faith in him than I do, and with good reason. Paxton has undeniable upside--his 32.3 K% last season was absolutely nuts. Unfortunately, his 160.1 IP from a year ago represent a career high, which is pretty concerning for a 30-year-old. Paxton has lost time over the last few seasons to forearm, pectoral and finger strains, and back inflammation. He's theoretically healthy heading into this season, but it's incredibly difficult to find a path to 200 IP this season give his history. Even more concerning than the injury history is his change in ballpark. Last year T-Mobile Park in Seattle ranked 27th as far as runs scored were concerned, while Yankee Stadium was seventh--and it gets worse when you adjust for home runs. He's coming off the worst HR rate of his career (1.3/9 IP) and now heads to one of the worst stadiums in the majors for ceding the long ball. It doesn't take a professor of sabermetrics to figure out why Paxton could have plenty of issues this year even if he remains healthy.

Rankings Analysis - Middle Tiers

Tier Four

My affinity for Jack Flaherty is well-established (see my Bold Predictions for this year) so I won't waste more typing on that subject. German Marquez is a trendy sleeper that our good friend @Jon_DenzlerRB has written about here. I want to talk about a guy that hasn't been getting very much love this offseason instead--Miles Mikolas. The 30-year-old was on hiatus from the MLB from 2015-2017, opting instead to pitch in Japan. When he returned last season he made an immediate impact on the Cardinals' rotation, going 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA across 200.1 IP. There was likely a bit of luck there, as his SIERA was more than a full run higher (3.93), but the 2019 Opening Day starter still showed plenty of promise for this year. His 3.6% BB-rate was particularly impressive--if you keep runners off the bases they can't come around to score, and his 0.72 HR/9 is certainly admirable as well. The main knock against his SIERA is the lack of strikeouts; he posted a modest 18.1 K%. Mikolas is one of those picks that will impress nobody on draft day, but he'll hold down a valuable spot in your rotation all season.

Clayton Kershaw has tumbled down draft boards, and with good reason. There are major, major concerns that can't be ignored. He's averaging just over 160 IP over the last three seasons, and he's coming off the lowest K% since his rookie year (23.9%). That last stat can likely be attributed to the fact that his average fastball velocity (91.4) plummeted to nearly two full MPH from his career average (93.7). Thanks to that drop-off, Kershaw has begun to lean on his slider more and more, and he actually threw more sliders than fastballs last year. This all still led to a 2.73 ERA (with a 3.45 SIERA to back it up), which is my main reason for optimism. If there is any pitcher who can re-establish his dominance by nibbling corners and keeping batters off-balance with breaking balls, it's Kershaw. He'll have to re-invent himself to stay relevant, and I think he can do it. My ranking here may be a bit optimistic, but to think Kershaw is "done" seems foolish.

Tier Five

I am lowest on Yu Darvish, and I'm not quite sure what some of my colleagues are seeing to give them hope. Darvish peaked in his sophomore season (2013) with a 13-9 record, 277 strikeouts and a 2.83 ERA. Since then, he's averaged 120 IP per season, and his career ERA is now at 3.49. Simply stated, Darvish is nowhere close to the phenom that he entered the league as. This is not to say my colleagues are ranking him as such--they're not. But the upside here is just so limited. The only thing Darvish truly has working in his favor is his strikeout ability. His 29.5 career K% is a terrific mark, and when he's healthy Darvish should still have that nasty stuff. He hasn't lost anything off his fastball, and his slider is still a devastating put-away pitch. However, with that nastiness comes a dangerously high BB%. Darvish has walked over 9% of the batters he's faced in his career, which leaves the door open for a lot of trouble if he's not "on". If you can only count on him for maybe 150 innings and an ERA around 3.50-4.00, how is he inside the top 120?

I'm also lowest on Eduardo Rodriguez, so I guess this is my Hater Tier. I see the upside here, don't get me wrong--Rodriguez has improves his K% every season he's been in the majors, resulting in a healthy 26.4% last season across 129.2 IP. Once again though, concerns about innings pitched have me wary. Rodriguez has suffered from knee, hamstring and ankle injuries in the past, and it's kept him from realizing his full potential. Is this the year he finally puts it all together? Simply put, I'm not willing to be the one who drafts him to find out. I could be completely wrong here, and Rodriguez could toss 180 innings of terrific ball. I just don't want to be the one who wastes a pick on him when I could have a guy with more upside like Luis Castillo or a sturdy veteran like J.A. Happ instead.

Rankings Analysis - Lower Tiers

Tier Six

I'm highest on Jake Arrieta, and honestly in this case it's me trusting a guy's floor more than his upside. Arrieta has been declining steadily since 2014-2015, it's true. His K% is down, his SIERA is up. However, he's not losing a ton of velocity off his fastball and he's starting to lean more on his cutter, which was what earned him a good deal of his success in that 2014-2015 high point. The Phillies will be one of the more competitive teams in the National League this year, and with some slight adjustments Arrieta can take a step back towards the success that earned him a Cy Young Award in 2015.

Tier Seven

Kenta Maeda could be a rock-solid third or fourth starter if only the Dodgers would give him a full season in the rotation. As it stands it looks like Maeda will at least begin the season in the rotation, and if he's able to hold down the spot he could be a top-40 starter in mixed league formats. In his three seasons in the majors he's boasted an above-average 26.2 K%, and outside of a sub-par 2017 he's kept his homers allowed down as well. He's been consistent and has stayed relatively healthy for most of his major league career, so it's literally all about opportunity for Maeda.

Tiers Eight and Nine

The Marcus Stroman hate has gone too far. Very few people realize just how much of his atrocious 2018 campaign was based in luck (or lack thereof). Stroman suffered in most non-controllable statistics--his BABIP shot up to .326, his LOB % was a laughable 60.5%. All of this resulted in an abysmal 5.54 ERA, up from his 3.09 in 2017. However, if you look at the underlying metrics you'll see that he didn't actually pitch much worse. His SIERA only rose from 3.85 to 4.04, he still forced a crazy-high ground ball percentage, and his strikeout percentage dropped just a bit. He's never been a strikeout pitcher, so don't expect him to help you out there, but he's one of the best candidates for a bounce-back season on this list, and I'm banking on it.

Speaking of hate going too far, did everyone forget what Dereck Rodriguez did as a rookie last year? 6-4 with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 19 starts.--that's downright terrific in fantasy if you project it out over a full season. I am no fool here--there are a TON of signs that indicate Rodriguez will regress in 2019. His BABIP was a ridiculously low .257, that low ERA was backed up by a 4.58 SIERA and his 18.3 K% isn't a recipe for overcoming any of the forthcoming WHIP regression. Even if Rodriguez's ERA levels out to a 3.50-4.00 range and he picks up 10 wins, isn't that worthy of more than barely a top-300 ranking, or even into the 400s? Give Rodriguez a shot later in your draft and you won't be disappointed on the return.

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