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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 17 matchup analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. We hope everyone is having a successful fantasy season so far! It's playoff time, so let's go win a championship! Let's take a look at this week's matchups.
For those who are not familiar, each week I'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. Special thanks to PFF, RotoViz, RotoWire, Football Outsiders, FantasyPros, rbsdm.com, and Add More Funds for providing valuable information.
This year I will be covering the entire Sunday slate of games, and we have a separate article for the Monday Night Football matchups. Be sure to read those as well. So join me as I help get your fantasy teams off to a strong start. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and feel free to ask away. Let's get on to the matchups!
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Matchups Analysis - 1:00 PM ET Games
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football Team
Spread: Eagles -3.5
Implied Total: Eagles (24.0) vs. Football Team (20.5)
Pace: Eagles (7th) vs. Football Team (13th)
Scheme: Eagles (51% Pass, 49% Rush) vs. Football Team (55% Pass, 45% Rush)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 18.3% Pass (14th), 8.7% Rush (4th)
Football Team Def. DVOA: 20.8% Pass (27th), -10.3% Rush (15th)
Eagles Def. DVOA: 9.3% Pass (21st), -11.6% Rush (12th)
Football Team Off. DVOA: 7.8% Pass (20th), -14.5% Rush (24th)
Matchups We Love:
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
Jalen Hurts goes up against a Washington defense that he gashed for a QB2 finish two weeks ago. Hurts has the highest rushing touchdown equity among any quarterback, as the Eagles have shown a willingness to have him sneak it in on a goal-line carry. Washington is allowing the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
Dallas Goedert also went off against Washington two weeks ago, catching 7-of-9 targets for 135 yards. He's now racked up 100 or more yards in two of his last three games. Goedert should remain as one of the focal points of this passing game. Washington is tied for 18th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends.
Matchups We Hate:
Washington RBs
There's no reason to roll with this backfield because this Washington offense is dysfunctional. Antonio Gibson was placed on the COVID-19 list, so he's out for this week. Jaret Patterson and Jonathan Williams are likely to split the touches. The Eagles rank 23rd in PPR per game allowed to running backs, but this is a situation to avoid.
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
Terry McLaurin has combined for 12 receptions and 164 yards in his last five games. He's an easy bench this week against Darius Slay, who is one of the top corners in football. The Eagles are allowing the second-fewest PPR per game to wideouts. McLaurin is a low-end WR3 who I'd leave on my bench this week.
Other Matchups:
Eagles RBs
Boston Scott is expected to carry the load with Miles Sanders sidelined, but Jordan Howard can take away touches as well. This projects as a positive game script with the Eagles as 3.5-point road favorites. Washington ranks 16th in PPR per game allowed to running backs. Consider Scott on the RB2 radar.
DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI)
DeVonta Smith came alive for five catches, 80 yards, and a touchdown against the Giants last week. This is a good matchup against a Washington defense that ranks 30th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts. I'm keeping him in the lukewarm section because the last time they played, Smith only had three catches for 40 yards.
Injuries:
PHI RB Miles Sanders (hand)
WAS RB Antonio Gibson (COVID-19)
Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans
Spread: Titans -3.5
Implied Total: Dolphins (18.0) vs. Titans (21.5)
Pace: Dolphins (8th) vs. Titans (17th)
Scheme: Dolphins (61% Pass, 39% Rush) vs. Titans (53% Pass, 47% Rush)
Dolphins Off. DVOA: 5.1% Pass (23rd), -26.0% Rush (30th)
Titans Def. DVOA: 2.0% Pass (10th), -9.7% Rush (17th)
Dolphins Def. DVOA: -2.9% Pass (6th), -10.8% Rush (13th)
Titans Off. DVOA: -1.2% Pass (25th), -5.5% Rush (17th)
Matchups We Love:
Jaylen Waddle (WR, MIA)
Jaylen Waddle just continues to produce, coming off a strong game against the Saints where he caught 10-of-12 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown. He's now racked up double-digit targets with 90+ yards in three consecutive games. Waddle goes up against a Titans defense that ranks 32nd in PPR per game allowed to wideouts.
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN)
A.J. Brown blew up for 11 catches, 145 yards, and a touchdown in his return to action last week. He goes up against a Dolphins defense that ranks 26th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts. The issue here is that Brown missed Thursday's practice with a calf injury. If Brown plays, consider him an upside WR1.
Matchups We Hate:
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
I have no interest in starting Tua Tagovailoa as a streamer this week because of the game environment. Both defenses are very good and the game total is low. Miami's implied total is only 18 points. The Titans are tied for 24th in fantasy production allowed to quarterbacks, but I can't recommend Tua here.
Dolphins RBs
This backfield has devolved into a three-man committee between Myles Gaskin, Phillip Lindsay, and Duke Johnson. That makes it easy to avoid against a Titans defense allowing the second-fewest PPR per game to running backs. There are so many better running backs to play this week, so steer clear of this situation.
Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)
Mike Gesicki has combined for only 23 catches and 178 yards in his last six games. That's terrible production that warrants looking elsewhere at tight end. Gesicki goes up against a Titans defense allowing the fifth-fewest PPR per game to opposing tight ends. Fade Gesicki this week.
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
Ryan Tannehill has not finished in the Top-12 quarterbacks since Week 10. He's finished as QB23, QB28, QB17, QB21, and QB17 during that stretch. Tannehill goes up against a red-hot Dolphins defense. Miami is tied for 9th in fantasy production allowed to quarterbacks. Like with Tua, fade Tannehill due to the game environment plus mediocre production.
Titans RBs
D'Onta Foreman is the preferred choice in this backfield, but he still loses touches to Dontrell Hilliard and Jeremy McNichols. Foreman has the touchdown equity when the Titans get in the red zone. The Dolphins are allowing the fourth-fewest PPR per game to opposing running backs. I'd avoid this situation.
Other Matchups:
DeVante Parker (WR, MIA)
DeVante Parker was held catch-less against the Saints last week, so perhaps they try to get him more involved against a Titans defense allowing the most PPR per game to opposing wideouts. While Waddle is clearly the top dog in this offense, Parker had been pretty solid before this dud, putting up 60+ yards in four consecutive games.
Injuries:
TEN WR A.J. Brown (calf)
TEN WR Julio Jones (COVID-19)
Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills -14.5
Implied Total: Falcons (14.75) vs. Bills (29.25)
Pace: Falcons (18th) vs. Bills (4th)
Scheme: Falcons (57% Pass, 43% Rush) vs. Bills (66% Pass, 34% Rush)
Falcons Off. DVOA: -0.9% Pass (24th), -31.6% Rush (31st)
Bills Def. DVOA: -20.0% Pass (2nd), -10.8% Rush (14th)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 25.7% Pass (29th), -3.4% Rush (25th)
Bills Off. DVOA: 28.3% Pass (6th), -3.6% Rush (14th)
Matchups We Love:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
This is an absolute smash spot for Josh Allen given the 29.25 implied total against a Falcons defense tied for 29th in fantasy production allowed to quarterbacks. Fantasy's overall QB1 has a chance to go nuclear in this spot. Allen has finished in the Top-3 on seven occasions this season. Fire him up with full confidence. He might win you a title.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Stefon Diggs has been a bit disappointing this season because there haven't been many blow-up games, but he still has 89 catches, 1,092 yards, and nine touchdowns. Like Allen, Diggs also has a chance to go off against a Falcons defense allowing the fourth-most PPR per game to wideouts. It wouldn't shock me to see Diggs as overall WR1 this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
Matt Ryan simply hasn't been good from a fantasy standpoint this season, finishing in the Top-12 only five teams. Ryan will have his hands full against a Bills defense allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Atlanta's implied total is only 14.75 points, so there's no way that you can trust Ryan as a streamer.
Cordarrelle Patterson (RB, ATL)
Cordarrelle Patterson has inexplicably lost his passing game usage, combining for only 11 catches in his last six games. Patterson was best used as a WR-RB hybrid, but the Atlanta coaching staff has ruined that by trying to turn him into a traditional running back. Buffalo just got gashed by Damien Harris, but that was against the Patriots' running game. The Bills still rank 13th in PPR per game allowed to running backs.
Russell Gage (WR, ATL)
Russell Gage had a down week against the Lions, 4-of-5 targets for 39 yards. Prior to that game, he had racked up 29 catches for 347 yards and two touchdowns in his previous four games. However, this is a tough matchup against a Bills defense allowing the fewest PPR per game to wideouts. I'd avoid Gage in this spot.
Other Matchups:
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)
Kyle Pitts blew up for six catches and 102 yards last week. He's now racked up 60+ yards in three consecutive games. The issue has been the lack of touchdown production, as he only has one for the season. Pitts is coming close to 1,000 yards, which would be highly impressive for a rookie tight end. The Bills are allowing the third-fewest PPR per game to tight ends, but Pitts looks like Atlanta's best bet to move the ball through the air this week.
Devin Singletary (RB, BUF)
Devin Singletary has taken over this backfield, playing over 70 percent of the snaps last week. Singletary has 18+ touches in his last two games. He's also scored a touchdown in each of those games. This projects as a positive game script with the Bills as double-digit home favorites. Atlanta ranks 24th in PPR per game allowed to running backs. Singletary is on the RB2 radar.
Bills WRs
Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis are expected to return to the lineup, which makes this an unclear situation given how good Isaiah McKenzie played last week. I think that McKenzie has earned a role, so we'll see Allen spread it around with these three wideouts. The matchup is right against an exploitable Falcons secondary, but it's hard to determine which one to go with. I'd roll with Davis.
Dawson Knox (TE, BUF)
Dawson Knox is on the TE1 radar every week because of his high touchdown equity in a pass-heavy offense catching passes from one of the best quarterbacks in football. Atlanta ranks 13th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends, which makes me put Knox in the lukewarm section, but it's a good spot with Buffalo having such a high implied total.
Injuries:
BUF WR Emmanuel Sanders (knee)
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
Spread: Patriots -16.5
Implied Total: Jaguars (12.5) vs. Patriots (29.0)
Pace: Jaguars (3rd) vs. Patriots (25th)
Scheme: Jaguars (56% Pass, 44% Rush) vs. Patriots (50% Pass, 50% Rush)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: -8.8% Pass (28th), -8.2% Rush (18th)
Patriots Def. DVOA: -13.2% Pass (3rd), -15.6% Rush (8th)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: 29.2% Pass (31st), -10.0% Rush (16th)
Patriots Off. DVOA: 21.8% Pass (11th), -2.0% Rush (10th)
Matchups We Love:
Damien Harris (RB, NE)
Damien Harris is coming off a huge game against the Bills where he rushed 18 times for 103 yards and three touchdowns. He has another smash spot with a positive game script since the Patriots are 16.5-point favorites with a 29-point implied total. Jacksonville ranks 15th in PPR per game allowed to running backs, but the game environment is too good here. Consider Harris as a high-end RB2.
Matchups We Hate:
Jaguars WRs
Marvin Jones Jr. and Laquon Treadwell will have their hands full against one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. New England ranks 4th in PPR per game allowed to wide receivers. There's no way that I'd consider any of these wideouts given the dysfunctional passing game in Jacksonville. Fade this group.
Other Matchups:
Dare Ogunbowale (RB, JAX)
Dare Ogunbowale takes over as the lead back in Jacksonville with James Robinson sidelined. We could see him rack up receptions with the Jaguars playing catch-up in a negative game script. However, there's risk here that the Jaguars get absolutely blown out while struggling on offense, which makes Ogunbowale a volatile play. Consider him on the FLEX radar.
Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE)
Jakobi Meyers stays in the lukewarm section because he has a nice floor (mainly in full-PPR leagues) and faces a Jaguars defense that is tied for 19th in PPR per game allowed to wide receivers. You're not getting excited about starting Meyers, but he could be a decent WR3/4 to round out your starting lineup.
Hunter Henry (TE, NE)
Hunter Henry is back on the streaming radar with the Patriots having a 29-point implied total. He'll have a great chance to find the endzone given this game environment. The Jaguars rank 15th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends, but this is a bet on game environment. I'd bet on Henry finding the endzone in this spot.
Injuries:
JAX RB James Robinson (Achilles)
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Colts -7
Implied Total: Raiders (18.75) vs. Colts (25.75)
Pace: Raiders (22nd) vs. Colts (29th)
Scheme: Raiders (59% Pass, 41% Rush) vs. Colts (54% Pass, 46% Rush)
Raiders Off. DVOA: 14.7% Pass (17th), -14.3% Rush (23rd)
Colts Def. DVOA: 4.0% Pass (12th), -21.1% Rush (3rd)
Raiders Def. DVOA: 15.7% Pass (25th), -13.2% Rush (10th)
Colts Off. DVOA: 16.2% Pass (16th), 10.6% Rush (1st)
Matchups We Love:
Hunter Renfrow (WR, LV)
Hunter Renfrow has had consecutive duds, combining for six catches, 72 yards, and a touchdown in his last two games. Renfrow should bounce back while finding soft spots in this zone-heavy Colts defense. Indianapolis is tied for 16th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts. Consider Renfrow as a rock-solid WR2 in this spot.
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
Jonathan Taylor could be in a tough spot if Carson Wentz is unable to play due to COVID-19, but he's too good to worry about. Having said that, we need to temper our expectations a bit if Sam Ehlinger is forced to start. Las Vegas ranks 29th in PPR per game allowed to running backs, so the matchup is good on paper. Consider JT as a Top-5 running back instead of his usual overall RB1 this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
Derek Carr has hit a wall lately, finishing as QB20, QB22, QB20, and QB21 in his last four games. The Colts are tied for 24th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, but I can't recommend starting Carr as a streamer. Indy has been tough on quarterbacks recently, like Kyler Murray last week.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
It's hard to trust Michael Pittman Jr. because the Colts are such a run-heavy offense. It's even more difficult if Sam Ehlinger is under center. The Raiders have also been tough on receivers, allowing the third-fewest PPR per game to the position. I'd look elsewhere at receiver this week.
Other Matchups:
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
Josh Jacobs has a tough matchup against a Colts defense allowing the fifth-fewest PPR per game to running backs. It also projects as a negative game script with the Raiders as seven-point road underdogs. Having said that, Jacobs has racked up 22 targets in his last four games. He finally has a passing game role, so that can help him overcome this tough matchup.
Injuries:
IND QB Carson Wentz (COVID-19)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets
Spread: Buccaneers -13
Implied Total: Buccaneers (29.25) vs. Jets (16.25)
Pace: Buccaneers (6th) vs. Jets (15th)
Scheme: Buccaneers (66% Pass, 34% Rush) vs. Jets (55% Pass, 45% Rush)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 40.6% Pass (1st), 9.6% Rush (3rd)
Jets Def. DVOA: 30.7% Pass (32nd), 0.6% Rush (29th)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: -3.8% Pass (4th), -12.1% Rush (11th)
Jets Off. DVOA: -4.4% Pass (27th), -3.1% Rush (13th)
Matchups We Love:
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
Tom Brady is in a smash spot as 13-point road favorites with a 29.25-point implied total. The Jets rank 21st in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. The one risk here is that the Bucs sleepwalk their way to a win here or that they just run all over the Jets, but Brady remains an elite QB1.
Ronald Jones II (RB, TB)
Ronald Jones should be considered as a borderline RB1 as the lead back with touchdown equity in a prolific offense. He goes up against a Jets defense allowing the most PPR per game to opposing running backs and it isn't even close. The Jets are giving up 4.2 points per game more than 31st-ranked Seattle. Add in the positive game script and you have a great spot for Jones. It also wouldn't surprise me to see Ke'Shawn Vaughn get involved.
Antonio Brown (WR, TB)
Antonio Brown should get peppered with targets with Chris Godwin out. Brown takes on a Jets defense allowing 8.88 yards per target to wideouts, which is tied for 30th. The one concern is that he missed Thursday and Friday's practice, so monitor this situation. If Brown is able to play, he needs to be considered as a WR1.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any fantasy-relevant players to hate in this spot.
Other Matchups:
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
Mike Evans is ready to return from the COVID-19 list, but it's hard to trust him as anything more than an upside WR3. It's risky to start a player in their first game back from COVID-19 because we don't know if there will be a reduced workload due to the lingering effects of the virus. That keeps Evans in the lukewarm section.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB)
Rob Gronkowski is coming off a dud against the Panthers, where he caught 1-of-2 targets for only 23 yards. Gronk has now been held under 30 yards in consecutive games. The Jets rank 25th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends, so the matchup is there. Gronk's upside is too high to avoid, but I'll leave him in the lukewarm section this week.
Michael Carter (RB, NYJ)
Michael Carter had a big game against the Jaguars, rushing 16 times for 118 yards while catching 2-of-3 targets for six yards. Carter has a tough matchup against a Bucs defense allowing the eighth-fewest PPR per game to running backs, but we could see him rack up check-down receptions in this game, keeping him as a lukewarm RB2.
Braxton Berrios (WR, NYJ)
Braxton Berrios could be in line for a nice workload with Elijah Moore already ruled out and Jamison Crowder likely out for this game. Berrios has a chance to rack up intermediate targets in a projected pass-heavy game script against a pass-funnel defense. This keeps him in on the WR3 radar in full-PPR leagues.
Injuries:
NYJ WR Elijah Moore (COVID-19)
NYJ WR Jamison Crowder (calf)
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Rams -4.5
Implied Total: Rams (25.5) vs. Ravens (21.0)
Pace: Rams (16th) vs. Ravens (26th)
Scheme: Rams (60% Pass, 40% Rush) vs. Ravens (52% Pass, 48% Rush)
Rams Off. DVOA: 26.2% Pass (9th), -1.8% Rush (9th)
Ravens Def. DVOA: 28.3% Pass (30th), -17.4% Rush (6th)
Rams Def. DVOA: -1.5% Pass (8th), -21.0% Rush (4th)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 16.5% Pass (15th), -1.6% Rush (8th)
Matchups We Love:
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)
Matthew Stafford is in an absolute smash spot against a Ravens defense that just gave up 500+ yards to Joe Burrow. Baltimore now ranks 31st in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. This defense is absolutely decimated, so Stafford should be considered as an elite QB1 in this spot.
Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
Cooper Kupp is in a dream spot as the overall WR1 facing a defense that ranks 32nd in PPR per game allowed to wide receivers. Kupp has had one of the best wide receiver seasons of all time. What a perfect cap to a historic season than facing such a depleted defense. Kupp has a chance to go absolutely nuclear in this spot.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Mark Andrews is simply on fire right now, combining for 29 catches, 376 yards, and four touchdowns in his last three games. We've seen him go nuclear with Tyler Huntley under center and that looks to be the case this week. The Rams rank 12th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends, but that doesn't matter too much with a player like Andrews.
Matchups We Hate:
Ravens RBs
Devonta Freeman has combined for only 44 total yards in his last two games. Latavius Murray has 14 touches during that span. This is a committee to avoid against a Rams defense that is tied for 17th in PPR per game allowed to running backs but has only given up 3.65 yards per carry, which ranks 2nd in the NFL.
Other Matchups:
Sony Michel (RB, LAR)
Sony Michel has the bell-cow role in a prolific offense. This is a good spot with the Rams having a 25.5-point implied total. The issue here is that run defense is the strength of this Ravens unit, as they are tied for 11th in PPR per game allowed to the position. Michel should be considered a high-end RB2, but temper your expectations because Los Angeles might do most of its damage through the air.
Tyler Huntley (QB, BAL)
Tyler Huntley is back from COVID-19 and looks ready to start another week with Lamar Jackson still nursing an ankle injury. We've seen how high Huntley's ceiling can be, so he warrants consideration as a streamer. However, the Rams are allowing the seventh-fewest PPR per game to quarterbacks. Huntley is more of an upside QB2, especially since it's his first game back from COVID-19.
Marquise Brown (WR, BAL)
Marquise Brown is dealing with an illness that could keep him out this week. If he does play, he looks more like a decent WR3. Brown hasn't produced at the same level without Lamar Jackson at quarterback. The Rams rank 18th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts, but it's tough to get excited about Brown here. Rashod Bateman can also take away targets, especially with Brown at less than 100 percent.
Injuries:
BAL QB Lamar Jackson (ankle)
BAL WR Marquise Brown (illness)
New York Giants at Chicago Bears
Spread: Bears -6
Implied Total: Giants (15.5) vs. Bears (21.5)
Pace: Giants (14th) vs. Bears (21st)
Scheme: Giants (59% Pass, 41% Rush) vs. Bears (50% Pass, 50% Rush)
Giants Off. DVOA: -12.0% Pass (31st), -20.9% Rush (29th)
Bears Def. DVOA: 9.7% Pass (24th), -3.8% Rush (24th)
Giants Def. DVOA: 5.3% Pass (17th), -1.6% Rush (27th)
Bears Off. DVOA: -1.3% Pass (26th), -12.6% Rush (21st)
Matchups We Love:
David Montgomery (RB, CHI)
David Montgomery is in a great spot in a projected positive game script with the Bears as six-point home favorites. The Giants rank 25th in PPR per game allowed to running backs. Monty has seen a ton of usage in the passing game in recent weeks, combining for 31 targets in his last four games. He's a rock-solid RB1 in this spot.
Matchups We Hate:
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
I don't see how we can trust Saquon Barkley as we head into championship week. He's finished as RB23, RB31, RB21, RB11, RB26, and RB52 since returning from injury. He's in an atrocious offense quarterbacked by Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm. The Bears are tied for 17th in PPR per game allowed to running backs, but Barkley is a low-end RB2.
Giants WRs
Kadarius Toney had nine targets in his return to action last week, but he's out this week. Kenny Golladay has 24 targets in his last three games, but he's done nothing with that volume. The Bears rank 22nd in PPR per game allowed to wideouts, but this is a situation to avoid because this offense is horrendous.
Other Matchups:
Justin Fields (QB, CHI)
Justin Fields is likely to return as starter this week, but we need to temper our expectations because this Giants defense has done well in slowing down a similar rushing quarterback like Jalen Hurts. Hurts finished as QB11 and QB29 in two starts against the Giants. There's also the risk that Fields plays at less than 100 percent. If Andy Dalton or Nick Foles are forced to start, you can avoid this situation.
UPDATE: Andy Dalton has officially been named the starter in Week 17.
Darnell Mooney (WR, CHI)
Darnell Mooney has had a respectable sophomore season, totaling 62 catches for 860 yards and three touchdowns despite playing in a run-heavy offense. Mooney needs Fields under center to help him approach his weekly ceiling. We can consider him a volatile WR3 against a Giants defense that ranks 23rd in PPR per game allowed to wideouts.
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI)
Cole Kmet has still yet to score a touchdown despite totaling 83 targets on the season. He's so due to find the endzone, but the team continues to target Jimmy Graham down there. Kmet is in play as a streamer against a Giants defense that is tied for 18th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends.
Injuries:
NYG WR Kadarius Toney (COVID-19)
NYG WR Sterling Shepard (Achilles)
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Chiefs -5
Implied Total: Chiefs (28.0) vs. Bengals (23.0)
Pace: Chiefs (12th) vs. Bengals (28th)
Scheme: Chiefs (62% Pass, 38% Rush) vs. Bengals (57% Pass, 43% Rush)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 30.7% Pass (4th), -3.7% Rush (15th)
Bengals Def. DVOA: 9.3% Pass (22nd), -15.9% Rush (7th)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: 4.2% Pass (13th), -5.5% Rush (21st)
Bengals Off. DVOA: 12.2% Pass (18th), -11.5% Rush (20th)
Matchups We Love:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Patrick Mahomes has gotten back on track in recent weeks, finishing as QB10, QB2, and QB5 in his last three games. He goes up against a Bengals defense that is tied for 14th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, but Travis Kelce is ready to return to the lineup, giving Mahomes a full arsenal in this matchup. He's an elite QB1.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Tyreek Hill put up a dud against the Steelers last week, catching both of his targets for 19 yards. Perhaps he was limited in his return after dealing with COVID-19. Hill goes up against a Bengals that ranks 15th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts. Expect a much better performance in this game, especially if Cincinnati can keep it close.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Travis Kelce returns to the lineup to take on a Bengals defense that was just torched by Mark Andrews for eight catches, 125 yards, and a touchdown. Cincinnati ranks 26th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends. The one concern here is that it's Kelce's first game back from COVID-19, but fire him up as an elite TE1.
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Joe Mixon had a great game against the Ravens, rushing 18 times for 65 yards and a touchdown while catching all six of his targets for 70 yards and a touchdown. You have to love that passing game usage and touchdown equity. Mixon goes up against a Chiefs defense that ranks 22nd in PPR per game allowed to running backs.
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
Tee Higgins is on a ridiculous run to end his sophomore season, combining for 34 catches, 583 yards, and four touchdowns in his last five games. He's finished as WR4, WR3, WR20, WR70, and WR1 during that stretch. Higgins takes on a Chiefs defense that ranks 12th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts, but we have to consider him as a WR1 given this hot stretch.
Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
Ja'Marr Chase busted out of his slump last week, catching 7-of-10 targets for 125 yards. He's now put up 68 catches, 1,163 yards, and 10 touchdowns in what's been one of the most impressive rookie wide receiver seasons in recent memory. Chase also needs to be considered as a WR1 because of his high upside.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any fantasy-relevant matchups to hate here.
Other Matchups:
Chiefs RBs
There's a chance that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is forced to miss this game with a shoulder injury. If he plays, consider him as a decent FLEX, as he continues to share carries with Darrel Williams. If he doesn't, Williams would become an upside RB2 against a Bengals defense that ranks 19th in PPR per game allowed to running backs.
UPDATE: Clyde Edwards-Helaire has officially been ruled out for Week 17.
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
Joe Burrow absolutely torched a depleted Ravens defense for 525 yards and four touchdowns. He's now finished as QB10, QB10, QB8, QB17, and QB1 in his last five games. The Chiefs rank 28th in PPR per game allowed to quarterbacks, but this is an improving defense that now ranks 13th in pass DVOA. Fire up Burrow as a mid-range QB1, but this could be more of a floor week.
Injuries:
KC RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (shoulder)
Matchups Analysis - 4:00 ET Games
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: Chargers -6.5
Implied Total: Broncos (19.75) vs. Chargers (26.25)
Pace: Broncos (31st) vs. Chargers (2nd)
Scheme: Broncos (54% Pass, 46% Rush) vs. Chargers (61% Pass, 39% Rush)
Broncos Off. DVOA: 20.5% Pass (13th), -2.5% Rush (11th)
Chargers Def. DVOA: 9.3% Pass (23rd), 4.8% Rush (32nd)
Broncos Def. DVOA: 5.0% Pass (16th), -4.0% Rush (23rd)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 35.7% Pass (3rd), -2.7% Rush (12th)
Matchups We Love:
Broncos RBs
Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams are in a great spot against a Chargers defense that ranks 32nd in Rush DVOA and just got gashed by Rex Burkhead for 149 rushing yards. The Broncos are decimated at wide receiver this week, which means that the running backs will be even more of a focal point. Consider both as upside RB2s.
Noah Fant (TE, DEN)
Noah Fant immediately becomes the top target in this passing game with Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Tim Patrick out with COVID-19. The Chargers are allowing the second-most PPR per game to tight ends, so the matchup is there for Fant to hit his ceiling. Fire him up with confidence in this spot.
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Justin Herbert should be able to shred this defense that will be without pass-rusher Bradley Chubb and cornerback Bryce Callahan. The Broncos are allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but that doesn't mean much when you consider how many players that they're missing this week.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
Austin Ekeler returns to action this week and should be fired up with confidence as an elite RB1. The Broncos are allowing the seventh-fewest PPR per game to running backs, but as with Herbert, that doesn't mean much considering the current state of their defense. You have to love the projected positive game script here as well.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Keenan Allen should be peppered with targets in this exploitable matchup, especially with corner Bryce Callahan out of the lineup. Allen is coming off a dud against the Texans where he caught 4-of-6 targets for 35 yards, but I expect a better performance this week. Consider him on the WR1/2 fringe in this spot.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any fantasy-relevant matchups to hate in this spot.
Other Matchups:
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
Mike Williams returns from COVID-19 this week, but I have to leave him in the lukewarm section because we should always temper our expectations with players returning from a bout with the virus. Williams has a high ceiling due to his high average target depth, so he's always in play as a WR3, but he's volatile.
Injuries:
DEN QB Teddy Bridgewater (concussion)
DEN WR Courtland Sutton (COVID-19)
DEN WR Jerry Jeudy (COVID-19)
DEN WR Tim Patrick (COVID-19)
Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -12.5
Implied Total: Texans (15.75) vs. 49ers (28.25)
Pace: Texans (24th) vs. 49ers (30th)
Scheme: Texans (53% Pass, 47% Rush) vs. 49ers (53% Pass, 47% Rush)
Texans Off. DVOA: -11.2% Pass (30th), -35.7% Rush (32nd)
49ers Def. DVOA: 8.2% Pass (20th), -23.1% Rush (2nd)
Texans Def. DVOA: 4.4% Pass (15th), -2.6% Rush (26th)
49ers Off. DVOA: 29.7% Pass (5th), 7.8% Rush (5th)
Matchups We Love:
Trey Lance (QB, SF)
Trey Lance takes over as starter for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo. You have to love the upside here, as Lance has rushed 23 times for 130 yards in two starts this season. The Texans rank 15th in pass DVOA, but we're firing up Lance for his rushing ability. Consider him a mid-range QB1 with a ton of upside in this spot.
Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)
Deebo Samuel takes a bit of a hit with Lance starting because there is a projected decrease in passing volume, but the upside is high with such a dynamic quarterback. The Texans are tied for 16th in PPR per game allowed to wide receivers. We also know about Samuel's ability to make an impact on the ground and the Texans rank 26th in Rush DVOA.
Matchups We Hate:
Rex Burkhead (RB, HOU)
Rex Burkhead blew up against the worst run defense in football last week, but this is a totally different animal this time around. The 49ers rank 2nd in Rush DVOA. This game also projects as a negative game script for Burkhead, which means that he could see much less volume in this spot. I'd avoid him entirely.
Other Matchups:
Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)
Brandin Cooks has been a dependable target hog this season, but he's coming back from COVID-19, so we need to temper our expectations. The matchup is a good one against a 49ers defense that is tied for 24th in PPR per game allowed to wide receivers, but I have to leave him in the lukewarm section given the circumstances.
Elijah Mitchell (RB, SF)
Elijah Mitchell looks set to return to action this week. It's a smash spot against a Texans defense allowing the third-most PPR per game to running backs. The risk here is that Mitchell gets eased back in, with the Niners giving some touches to Deebo Samuel and Jeff Wilson Jr. I still like Mitchell as a high-end RB2, but I'm concerned about a bit of a decreased workload.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)
Brandon Aiyuk could benefit from the change in quarterback, as Trey Lance might opt to throw downfield at a higher rate. It's a good matchup against the Texans, especially with the 49ers high implied total. The risk here is that the 49ers go run-heavy, which would limit the passing volume and opportunities for Aiyuk.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
George Kittle is an elite TE1 every week. He takes on a Texans defense that is tied for 23rd in PPR per game allowed to tight ends. The problem here is that we could see Kittle block more than usual with Lance at quarterback. We have seen this happen earlier this season. This makes me think that we'll get more of a floor week from Kittle in this spot.
Injuries:
SF QB Jimmy Garoppolo (thumb)
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -6
Implied Total: Cardinals (22.75) vs. Cowboys (28.75)
Pace: Cardinals (11th) vs. Cowboys (1st)
Scheme: Cardinals (57% Pass, 43% Rush) vs. Cowboys (60% Pass, 40% Rush)
Cardinals Off. DVOA: 26.9% Pass (8th), -12.9% Rush (22nd)
Cowboys Def. DVOA: -22.6% Pass (1st), -7.1% Rush (19th)
Cardinals Def. DVOA: -3.7% Pass (5th), -18.1% Rush (5th)
Cowboys Off. DVOA: 26.9% Pass (7th), -4.2% Rush (16th)
Matchups We Love:
Chase Edmonds (RB, ARI)
Chase Edmonds put up elite production without James Conner last week, rushing for 56 yards and a touchdown while catching 8-of-9 targets for 71 yards. Conner is a game-time decision this week, which tells me that he's trending in the wrong direction. Edmonds would be an RB1 if Conner can't play, as the Cowboys rank 19th in Rush DVOA.
Zach Ertz (TE, ARI)
Zach Ertz has gotten absolutely peppered with targets in DeAndre Hopkins' absence, catching 14-of-24 targets for 128 yards in his last two games. That'll play at the thinnest position in fantasy football. The Cowboys rank 16th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends, so we could see Ertz approach his ceiling in this spot.
Cowboys WRs
At least one of CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup should be able to turn in a strong performance against a Cardinals defense that ranks 27th in PPR per game allowed to wide receivers. My bet is on Lamb, who had a down week in a blowout win against Washington last week.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any fantasy-relevant matchups to hate in this game.
Other Matchups:
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
Kyler Murray has hit a wall lately, finishing as QB16, QB18, and QB6 in his last three games. He'll have to make more of an impact on the ground while facing the Cowboys, as they rank 1st in Pass DVOA. The good news is that they do rank 20th in fantasy points per game allowed to the position. I'd still consider Murray as a QB1, but he needs to be in the lukewarm section.
Christian Kirk (WR, ARI)
Christian Kirk will have his hands full against a Cowboys defense that ranks 1st in Pass DVOA and 14th in PPR per game allowed to wide receivers. Kirk has combined for 21 targets in his last two games, as he's become the top target in this offense with DeAndre Hopkins sidelined, but I need to temper my expectations in this game.
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Dak Prescott busted out of his slump against Washington last week, throwing for 330 yards and four touchdowns. He goes up against a Cardinals defense that is allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, so we should temper our expectations. At the same time, you have to love the high implied total with Dallas as home favorites. Dak should be considered as a mid-range QB1.
Cowboys RBs
Ezekiel Elliott hasn't eclipsed 60 rushing yards since Week 6. He's essentially devolved into a touchdown-dependent RB2. Lucky for him, he plays in a prolific offense with high touchdown equity. The Cardinals are allowing the 10th-fewest PPR per game to running backs. Consider Elliott as an RB2 with Tony Pollard having some FLEX appeal since it's a projected positive game script.
Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)
Dalton Schultz has gotten red-hot at just the right time, catching 16-of-17 targets for 149 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games. However, the Cardinals are allowing the second-fewest PPR per game to tight ends, which will make it difficult for Schultz to continue this hot streak. I'll leave him as a low-end TE1 in the lukewarm section.
Injuries:
ARI RB James Conner (heel)
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks -7
Implied Total: Lions (17.75) vs. Seahawks (24.75)
Pace: Lions (27th) vs. Seahawks (9th)
Scheme: Lions (51% Pass, 49% Rush) vs. Seahawks (55% Pass, 45% Rush)
Lions Off. DVOA: -10.4% Pass (29th), -16.0% Rush (26th)
Seahawks Def. DVOA: 22.0% Pass (28th), -14.8% Rush (9th)
Lions Def. DVOA: 20.5% Pass (26th), -1.0% Rush (28th)
Seahawks Off. DVOA: 21.1% Pass (12th), 0.0% Rush (7th)
Matchups We Love:
D'Andre Swift (RB, DET)
D'Andre Swift finally returns to the lineup. You have to think that the Lions will give him a full workload. It makes no sense to bring back Swift at a reduced workload because there's nothing to play for right now. Swift goes up against a Seahawks defense allowing the second-most PPR per game to running backs. Fire him up as an RB1.
Rashaad Penny (RB, SEA)
Rashaad Penny has been fantastic since taking over as the lead back, rushing for 130+ yards in two of his last three games. He takes on a Lions defense that ranks 26th in PPR per game allowed to running backs. This projects as a positive game script with the Seahawks as seven-point home favorites. Penny is a borderline RB1.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any fantasy-relevant matchups to hate in this game.
Other Matchups:
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
Russell Wilson is in a great spot against a Lions defense that ranks 26th in Pass DVOA. The problem is that Wilson has finished as QB14, QB14, QB32, and QB12 in his last four games. He's limited by the low volume of plays that Seattle runs. I'd consider him a low-end QB1 in this spot, but I'm not excited to start him.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been on fire lately, catching 35-of-46 targets for 340 yards and three touchdowns in his last four games. The problem is that D'Andre Swift is back in the lineup, which could limit St. Brown's target share. The Seahawks are also tied for 9th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts, so it's a tough matchup.
Seahawks WRs
D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are in a great spot against a Lions defense allowing 8.63 yards per target (T-26th) to wide receivers. The problem is that it's hard to determine which one of these receivers will have a big game. The Seahawks don't run enough passing plays for both wideouts to go off. I'd lean Metcalf here.
Gerald Everett (TE, SEA)
Gerald Everett has played well in his last two games, catching 8-of-9 targets for 128 yards and a touchdown. The risk here is that there hasn't been a lot of targets, so Everett would need to maintain his high efficiency to continue to produce. The Lions are tied for 23rd in PPR per game allowed to tight ends, so Everett is still a viable streamer.
Injuries:
DET QB Jared Goff (knee)
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Spread: Saints -6.5
Implied Total: Panthers (15.5) vs. Raiders (22.0)
Pace: Panthers (19th) vs. Saints (20th)
Scheme: Panthers (52% Pass, 48% Rush) vs. Saints (53% Pass, 47% Rush)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -23.4% Pass (32nd), -10.6% Rush (19th)
Saints Def. DVOA: -2.3% Pass (7th), -29.3% Rush (1st)
Panthers Def. DVOA: 1.9% Pass (9th), -5.7% Rush (20th)
Saints Off. DVOA: 5.3% Pass (22nd), -15.7% Rush (25th)
Matchups We Love:
There aren't any fantasy-relevant matchups to love here.
Matchups We Hate:
Panthers RBs
New Orleans ranks 1st in Rush DVOA. The Panthers' offense is a dysfunctional mess and now has Sam Darnold under center. That should be enough to convince you to not even consider starting Chuba Hubbard or Ameer Abdullah. Avoid this backfield entirely.
Panthers WRs
D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson could benefit from the change at quarterback, but there's no way that you can feel comfortable starting either of these players in championship week. The Saints rank 22nd in PPR per game allowed to wideouts, so there's a chance that one of these two provides solid production, but I'm not taking the risk here.
Other Matchups:
Taysom Hill (QB, NO)
Taysom Hill returns to action and is always a viable streamer due to his rushing ability. However, we need to temper our expectations with players returning from COVID-19. The Panthers are also allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, so this isn't an easy matchup.
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
That sound you heard was Alvin Kamara breathing a sigh of relief that he won't have to play with Ian Book anymore. Kamara takes on a Panthers defense allowing the sixth-fewest PPR per game to running backs, so it's a tough matchup. However, we have to consider him as a low-end RB1 given the projected positive game script.
Injuries:
NO WR Tre'Quan Smith (chest)
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Spread: Packers -13
Implied Total: Vikings (14.75) vs. Packers (27.75)
Pace: Vikings (10th) vs. Packers (32nd)
Scheme: Vikings (58% Pass, 42% Rush) vs. Packers (58% Pass, 42% Rush)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 25.3% Pass (10th), -16.8% Rush (27th)
Packers Def. DVOA: 4.3% Pass (14th), 1.0% Rush (31st)
Vikings Def. DVOA: 2.2% Pass (11th), -4.9% Rush (22nd)
Packers Off. DVOA: 40.1% Pass (2nd), 1.0% Rush (6th)
Matchups We Love:
Packers RBs
Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon are in a smash spot with the Packers as 13-point home favorites against Sean Mannion and the Vikings. Minnesota ranks 22nd in Rush DVOA, so we should see both running backs put up strong production in this spot. Consider Jones as an upside RB2 and Dillon as a high-end FLEX. We should see a ton of rushing volume here, especially with the cold weather.
Matchups We Hate:
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
Justin Jefferson is an elite talent, but this is a terrible matchup with Sean Mannion under center in a cold-weather game. While it's very difficult to bench such a phenomenal player, you can't be excited about him here. The Packers are also allowing the third-fewest PPR per game to wide receivers. Just a terrible spot for Jefferson. K.J. Osborn is no longer startable with Cousins out of the lineup.
Other Matchups:
Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)
Dalvin Cook could see a ton of volume without Kirk Cousins, but the Vikings have such a low implied total. You'll also likely see an inefficient day with the Vikings' projected struggles in the passing game. Cook looks like more of a high-end RB2 in this spot. If you have a player like Rashaad Penny on your bench, I"d consider swapping Cook for him. I'll still leave Cook in the lukewarm section, but I'm not particularly excited here.
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
Aaron Rodgers has been absolutely on fire, but he has two factors working against him here. For one, the Packers should easily control this game while facing Sean Mannion. That means that Rodgers won't have to air it out at a high rate. Secondly, the freezing cold weather will have a negative impact on the passing game. This makes Rodgers more of a lukewarm QB1.
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Davante Adams is an elite WR1 every week, but he faces the same risks as Rodgers. This profiles as more of a floor week for Adams with the Packers likely controlling this game on the ground. The cold-weather factor will make it difficult for Adams to hit his ceiling here. He's more of an overall WR5 than WR1 or WR2 this week.
Injuries:
MIN WR Adam Thielen (ankle)
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Click here to read about the Monday Night Football matchups between the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers.
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