Four Late Round Fliers For Home Runs

Last season, 129 Major League players managed to hit at least 20 home runs. The 6,776 home runs hit across the Major Leagues broke the previous yearly record by a whopping 671 long balls -- nearly the same difference between the second-highest year and the ninth-highest year.

Regardless of whether or not the home runs keep coming in 2020, the launch angle revolution and an increased emphasis on home runs make it likely that home runs will continue to fly at a high rate. For fantasy owners, this means that waiting for home runs in drafts can be a prudent strategy.

Hitters with 20-home run potential can be found at virtually free prices this year. Here are four hitters whom fantasy owners should target late in drafts if home runs are still a need.

Daniel Vogelbach - 1B, SEA (522 ADP)

Vogelbach broke out last season with 30 home runs and appears likely to break the 20-home run mark again in 2020. To project Vogelbach’s home run total in 2020, it’s important to understand what happened in the second half of last season. Heading into August of last year, Vogelbach had hit at least five home runs in every month and was on pace for 38 on the season. Over his last 44 games though, Vogelbach hit just five home runs, as his hard-hit rate tanked and his ground-ball rate rose.

The primary driver of Vogelbach’s late-season struggles appears to be his plate discipline. Vogelbach’s chase rate spiked to a season-worst 22.8% in August, and bad things happen when Vogelbach chases pitches:

Vogelbach’s barrel (10.8%), hard-hit (37.7%), and contact (74.6%) rates from 2019 are all sustainable and high enough for a 20-plus home run season. Since Vogelbach’s struggles last season were generally uncharacteristic and likely fixable, there’s little reason for fantasy owners to expect significant regression in home runs, making him an excellent late-round pick for fantasy owners in need of long balls.

Kole Calhoun - OF, ARI (307 ADP)

Over the past six seasons, Calhoun has clubbed an average of more than 22 home runs per year. Last season, Calhoun posted a career-high 33 long balls, and he should be a strong value play for fantasy owners in need of home runs late in drafts this year. Calhoun has posted hard-hit rates north of 42% with barrel rates above 9% in each of the past two seasons, making a season with at least 25 home runs very likely in 2020.

Calhoun figures to see regular playing time in the Arizona outfield and should benefit from three series in Colorado, so he boasts a realistic floor of 20 home runs with a ceiling of about 35. 

Ryan O’Hearn - 1B, KC (589 ADP)

O’Hearn struggled to hit last season with a meager .195 batting average, but the 26-year-old clubbed 14 home runs in 105 games. Over his 149-game Major League career, O’Hearn has proven himself to be a legitimate power threat with a 90.8 mph average exit velocity, 10.1% barrel rate, and 43.9% hard-hit rate. Importantly, contact hasn’t been much of a detractor to O’Hearn’s performance, as he owns a solid 74.3% contact rate and a 26.7% strikeout rate. 

O’Hearn’s power numbers suggest that a home run rate above 4% is likely in 2020. If he can play a full season this year, that home run rate makes 20-25 home runs a reasonable expectation. Ryan McBroom is challenging O’Hearn for the starting first base job with the Royals this spring, but O’Hearn is the favorite to win the job and should be on the radar of fantasy owners in need of home runs late in drafts.

Jay Bruce OF, PHI (556 ADP)

For his career, Bruce owns a 4.8% home run rate, and he’s topped that average in three of the past four seasons. At a 4.8% rate, Bruce will need just over 400 plate appearances to eclipse the 20 home run mark in 2020.

Over the past five seasons, Bruce has become significantly more of a home run hitter than he had been for most of his career. Beginning in 2015, Bruce began steadily increasing his hard-hit rate while decreasing his ground-ball rate:

Bruce has increased his hard-hit rate up to 43% last year. As a result, Bruce’s home run rate has sat over 5.5% in three of the past four seasons. At 5.5%, Bruce would only need 363 plate appearances to break the 20-home run mark and 454 PA to hit 25 homers.

The downside with Bruce is playing time. Even with Andrew McCutchen out for the start of the season, Bruce will likely struggle to find regular at-bats with the Phillies. At his 556 ADP though, Bruce is worth the gamble for fantasy owners in need of home runs.

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