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Making bold predictions is one of my favorite topics to write about. There's no better feeling as a writer than when you tout an overlooked player and it hits. Hitting on your bold prediction can really help you win your fantasy leagues. To secure a championship, you need your top players to approach their ceilings and you need to strike gold with your later round picks!
In this article, I'll make 10 bold predictions to help guide you in your drafts. I'll focus on players who have not been touted by too many pundits, so you won't see Aaron Civale on this list, even though I love him this season. I'll also use ATC projections as a baseline and include my own projections to help you get a sense of my thoughts on the player's outlook.
With that in mind, let's discuss my 10 bold predictions!
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Juan Soto hits .320+ with 40 home runs and 20 stolen bases
2020: .351/.490/.695, 196 PA, 39 R, 13 HR, 37 RBI, 6 SB
ATC: .303/.424/.590, 658 PA, 110 R, 38 HR, 112 RBI, 14 SB
Soto cemented himself as a Top-3 hitter in baseball last season, posting a higher walk than strikeout rate and increasing his Barrel% from 12.3% to 18.3%. Soto is an absolute superstar who is still not at his peak as he enters his age-22 season. This type of early-career production evokes memories of Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, and Albert Pujols. What's even more exciting is that Soto increased his stolen base rate from 1 SB/54.9 PA to 1 SB/32.7 PA. Soto also worked on his agility this offseason and plans to steal more bases in 2021. The sky is the limit for this phenom and I expect him to take his fantasy game to the next level with more stolen bases this season.
Bryce Harper hits .300+ with 40 home runs and 20 stolen bases
2020: .268/.420/.542, 244 PA, 41 R, 13 HR, 33 RBI, 8 SB
ATC: .263/.390/.527, 655 PA, 101 R, 36 HR, 100 RBI, 17 SB
Harper had a better season than it looked last year, as his .308 xBA and .656 xSLG were much better than his actual batting average and slugging percentage. He also cut his strikeout rate from 26.1 K% to 17.6 K% and increased his Barrel% from 14.8% to 17.3%. Harper has been a stud since the 2019 All-Star break, slashing .269/.396/.555 with 32 home runs and 18 stolen bases in 531 plate appearances during that span. We've seen him hit .330 with 42 home runs in his 2015 MVP season. Now comfortable in Philly and entering his age-28 season, Harper looks poised to carry the Phillies as well as your fantasy teams. A volcanic eruption is on its way for Mr. Harper.
Jose Berrios posts a sub-3.50 ERA and sub-1.15 WHIP with 200+ strikeouts
2020: 63 IP, 5 W, 4.00 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 26 BB, 68 K
ATC: 182 IP, 13 W, 3.94 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 58 BB, 187 K
Berrios had a disappointing season in 2020, increasing his walk rate from 6.1% to 9.6% which resulted in his worst WHIP since his rookie year, but we should see that stabilize in a full season. This is a former elite pitching prospect entering his age-28 season with projected high volume. It feels like we haven't seen his ceiling yet. The Twins added defensive wizard Andrelton Simmons to their infield and replaced a subpar defender in Eddie Rosario in the outfield, which should help Berrios. Berrios has a solid arsenal with a 94+ MPH four-seamer along with a curve and changeup as his put-away pitches. I'm betting on the prospect pedigree and defensive improvements here.
Yoan Moncada hits 30+ home runs and steals 20+ bases
2020: .225/.320/.385, 231 PA, 28 R, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 0 SB
ATC: .257/.335/.450, 626 PA, 82 R, 23 HR, 76 RBI, 7 SB
Moncada was another player with suppressed production in 2020 due to struggles from the lingering effects of COVID-19. Now healthy and feeling strong, Moncada looks ready to return to 2019 form, where he slashed .315/.367/.548 with 25 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 559 plate appearances. Let's remember that this is a former consensus top prospect who is now entering his age-26 season, hitting in the heart of a stacked White Sox lineup. Moncada also has untapped speed potential, having stolen 17 bases in 361 plate appearances in Triple-A back in 2017. Perhaps new, old-school manager Tony LaRussa will finally set him loose on the basepaths.
Chris Paddack posts a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP
2020: 59 IP, 4 W, 4.73 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 12 BB, 58 K
ATC: 137 IP, 10 W, 3.79 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 30 BB, 141 K
Paddack had a disappointing sophomore season following an impressive rookie year, but I think we're in store for a bounce-back. This is a 25-year old pitcher with elite command who put up a 1.22 WHIP even in a season where his ERA approached 5.o0. Paddack has decided to embrace analytics this offseason, recognizing that he needs to improve his mechanics as well as the spin rate on his fastball. If he's able to do this effectively, we could see a huge season for a pitcher who already has a great changeup with stellar command. While the volume concerns are legitimate given that his career-high is 140 innings, he should be able to provide terrific ratios.
Austin Meadows hits 30+ home runs and steals 20+ bases
2020: .205/.296/.371, 152 PA, 19 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 2 SB
ATC: .259/.332/.476, 578 PA, 78 R, 25 HR, 76 RBI, 11 SB
Meadows is yet another player who had his season derailed because of the challenges he dealt with while recovering from COVID-19. This was easy to see with the way his strikeout rate increased from 22.2% to 32.9% last season. Meadows is a former top prospect who slashed .291/.364/.558 with 33 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 591 plate appearances in his first full season in the majors back in 2019. This is a player who stole 11 bases in 179 plate appearances at Triple-A in 2018, so the upside is there for 20+ bags. Meadows has looked sharp this spring and looks poised for a bounce-back season. He's one of my must-targets this year.
Joey Gallo hits .250+ with 45+ home runs
2020: .181/.301/.378, 226 PA, 23 R, 10 HR, 26 RBI, 2 SB
ATC: .214/.333/.495, 598 PA, 84 R, 39 HR, 90 RBI, 5 SB
Let's take it back to 2019. Gallo was slashing .281/.424/.665 with 17 home runs in 210 plate appearances before suffering an oblique injury on June 1. Following this injury, Gallo went .197/.305/.465 with five home runs in 83 plate appearances. The injury completely derailed a breakout season. We can give Gallo a pass for his horrendous 2020 given the circumstances. What's encouraging to see is that Gallo spent this offseason making changes to his approach at the plate and is now mashing in Spring Training. We could also see Gallo traded to a more favorable team context since the Rangers are rebuilding. Don't be afraid of his average. Draft Gallo.
Madison Bumgarner goes 160+ innings with a sub-3.75 ERA and sub-1.25 WHIP
2020: 41.2 IP, 1 W, 6.48 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 13 BB, 30 K
ATC: 158 IP, 7 W, 4.89 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 42 BB, 133 K
Bumgarner is coming off a disastrous debut season in Arizona, but we can give him a mulligan in a season characterized by disruptions in routine. He started to show encouraging signs towards the end of 2020, combining for 10 innings of shutout ball with one walk and 11 strikeouts in his final two starts. His average fastball velocity increased from 87.5 MPH to 89.4 MPH during that stretch. Bumgarner has looked sharp this spring, which is always good to see when looking at a veteran trying to bounce-back. This is a pitcher entering his age-31 season, one year removed from 207.2 innings with a 3.90 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 19.0 K-BB%. Buy the bounce-back.
Hunter Dozier hits .280+ with 25+ home runs and 10+ stolen bases
2020: .228/.344/.392, 186 PA, 29 R, 6 HR, 12 RBI, 4 SB
ATC: .245/.327/.436, 592 PA, 73 R, 21 HR, 68 RBI, 7 SB
Dozier was affected by COVID-19 last season, stating that it took him a while to get his energy back after recovering from the virus. This suppressed his production across the board following a breakout 2019 that saw him slash .279/.348/.522 with 26 home runs in 586 plate appearances. Now fully recovered, Dozier looks poised for a resurgence in an improved Royals lineup that added Andrew Benintendi and could eventually include Bobby Witt Jr. Let's also recall that Dozier mentioned how he would like to steal more bases heading into last season. Given his improved walk rate (14.5 BB% in 2020) and increased stolen base rate (4 SB in 186 PA), 10+ steals are within reach.
Yusei Kikuchi posts a sub-3.50 ERA with 170+ strikeouts
2020: 47 IP, 2 W, 5.17 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 20 BB, 47 K
ATC: 154 IP, 8 W, 4.40 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 53 BB, 140 K
Kikuchi's improvements in skills have not yet translated into production, but they're highly intriguing. Last year, his fastball velocity increased from 92.9 MPH to 95.2 MPH, which helped bump his swinging-strike rate from 8.8% to 12.1%. Hitters had a tougher time generating hard contact, as his Barrel% fell from 7.5% to 3.9%. Kikuchi also stymied hitters on pitches in the zone, with his Z-Contact% falling from 89.3% to 81%. Let's remember that this was a highly touted signing when the Mariners picked him up from Japan in 2019. Kikuchi looks great this spring, with his fastball touching 97 MPH. He looks poised to emerge as the ace of this team in 2021.
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