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In the wild world of College Football, there's winners and then there are losers. Alabama so narrowly kept their name in the winner's column, while other previously top-10 programs like Notre Dame and Texas A&M, weren't so fortunate. After some upset and unexpected events, we trudge on to Week Three.
Week Two was another close 1-2 campaign. A narrow loss for the over in Missouri-Kansas State, thanks to the Tigers' hapless offense set us back, and Texas vs. Alabama turned out to be an unexpected defensive slugfest. In Greenville, North Carolina, Coach Mike Houston and the East Carolina Pirates gave us our single win for the week, improving the season-long record to 2-4.
For Week Three of the college football season, here are some expert money-line and over/under betting picks.
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Connecticut @ Michigan (+48)
O/U: 60.5
In Jim Mora Jr's first year in Storrs, the Huskies have already notched a win and have found their offense improving significantly, albeit still only ranked 106th in the country in points per game. Quarterback Zion Turner started the year as the backup, but was thrust into action when Penn State transfer Ta'Quan Roberson was hurt. The freshman Turner was billed as a dual-threat, but has largely been used as a pocket passer and showed flashes in the win over Central Connecticut State, as well as the loss to Syracuse.
The defense features a number of experienced leaders, with Texas Tech transfer linebacker Brandon Bouyer-Randle garnering the team's only interception, and linebacker Jackson Mitchell wreaking havoc as a tackling machine (13 tackles per game, 2 tackles for loss). In a game of inches, and when such a big spread is on the line, the special teams will be crucial, and sophomore kicker Noe Ruelas has been solid thus far, making kicks from 54 and 47 yards already.
The Michigan Wolverines earned their first spot in a College Football Playoff in 2021, and entered 2022 with some uncertainty having to replace seven defensive starters. Through a 2-0 start, many of those questions have been put to rest with a combined score of 107-17 over Colorado State and Hawaii. The quarterback position was one of the big battles in training camp, and Harbaugh took an unconventional path to solving the battle. Cade McNamara, who led the Wolverines to the CFP last year, was demoted after being outperformed through the first two games by former 5-star prospect JJ McCarthy.
The defense had the unenviable task of replacing its coordinator, two star defensive edge rushers, and seven starters in total. Through two games against overmatched opposition, Mike Morris has emerged as a breakout edge rusher with 3 tackles for loss in the early going, but the overall edge rushing attack - replacing NFL picks Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo - has taken on more of a committee approach. Allowing only 236 yards per game through two games is impressive, but each of the first two opponents were deeply flawed with new coaches, new offensive schemes, new quarterbacks, and their own fair share of turnover.
UConn is still a program at a crossroads. Conference-USA is the only conference to court UConn, who has been holding out in hopes of an invitation from either the ACC or the Big Ten. With neither of those invitations appearing likely, the Huskies sit in Independent land, which has hurt recruiting significantly. Coach Mora brought about an infusion of excitement to the program, was able to keep many significant contributors from 2021, and perused the transfer portal for some immediate help. This team is far better than the UConn teams of recent years, but they still won't sniff a bowl game.
Pick: UConn +48
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Vanderbilt @ Northern Illinois (-2.5)
O/U: 59.5
Coach Clark Lea has made some waves at Vanderbilt thus far, with the team starting off 2-1 and looking to get to 3 wins for the first time since 2019. This game may be their only real chance to earn that 3rd win with SEC conference play around the corner. At quarterback, Mike Wright is a dual-threat weapon who lit up the scoreboard against Hawaii and Elon, but came back down to earth in the loss to Wake Forest. Wright is effective in the intermediate passing game, and his legs are dangerous when utilized properly (8.3 yards per carry). Wright teams up with running back Re'Mahn Davis to form a very talented backfield.
The defense is a big work in process. They're allowing 435 yards per game, plus the defense is averaging over 6 penalties per game. The penalties part is correctable through coaching, but the lack of talent on defense is probably the main reason that Wake Forest easily had their way in the passing game. The rush defense has been relatively stout, allowing only 3.8 yards per carry and forcing 1.3 fumbles per game.
The Northern Illinois Huskies sit at 1-1, behind strong play from quarterback Rocky Lombardi and just enough from their bend, don't break defense that Eastern Illinois had on the ropes. In the passing game, Lombardi has been going after Cole Tucker and Shermar Thornton often, with 19 of his 32 completions headed their way, and with Kacper Rutkiewicz used as a key red zone target (2 of his 3 catches are touchdowns).
The defense has been fortunate thus far, with four takeaways, including 2 interceptions from Eric Rogers. Linebacker Daveren Rayner has been all over the field, with 25 tackles already. The defense had trouble stopping FCS-level Eastern Illinois, and narrowly squeaked by despite allowing 5.5 yards per rush, chiefly by forcing two turnovers. The offense has been outgained by over 100 yards this year, and is still not clicking at a high enough rate. This team's 9-5 season in 2021 was somewhat fluky, with a 5-2 record in one-score games that will be coming back down to earth.
After games against Eastern Illinois and Tulsa, the level of competition for Northern Illinois takes a leap with a bottom-feeder Power 5 program. Stepping up against Vanderbilt, expecting to win the turnover battle at the rate they've been at so far is likely unsustainable.
Pick: Vanderbilt +2.5
Purdue @ Syracuse (-1)
O/U: 59.5
Aidan O'Connell has been an efficient gunslinger this year, completing 60% of his passes for five touchdowns so far. His top target, Iowa transfer Charlie Jones, joined the team late in the summer but has 21 catches for 286 yards and four touchdowns after developing a quick rapport with his quarterback. The running game has been disappointing through two games, with four running backs joining an unproductive committee that has coach Jeff Brohm wanting more. The Boilermakers bounced back from a heartbreaking (and head-scratching) home loss to Penn State in the opener with a victory last week over Indiana State.
The defense did everything it should have last week against Indiana State, but there are still major issues that were exposed against Penn State. The Nittany Lions' super-senior quarterback Sean Clifford did everything he wanted against the defense, and its clear that they have their work cut out for them. In the loss to Penn State, the play calling was unusual and could be attributed to the loss. Despite holding a narrow lead, and with a chance to churn down the clock, the Boilermakers made three consecutive pass attempts on a three-and-out, and returned the ball to Penn State with enough time to eventually drive the field for the winning score.
Any discussion about the Syracuse Orange starts and finishes with sophomore running back Sean Tucker. In commanding wins over Louisville and UConn, Tucker has 313 total yards of offense and three touchdowns. Dual-threat quarterback Garrett Shrader has been stellar, completing 79.2% of his passes for five touchdowns, and adding 118 yards and three scores on the ground. The Orange also have a weapon in the kicking game, with Andre Szmyt being a former Lou Groza award winner, and making all 13 of his field goal and extra point attempts this year.
Arguably the biggest reason for Syracuse's jump this year has been the defensive play. Returning nine starters on defense, Coach Dino Babers' squad has forced five turnovers and notched five sacks in 2022. Junior linebacker Mikel Jones is the leader on defense, after leading the Orange with 109 tackles last season, while defensive back Garrett Williams is in his third year as a starter and is showing up on a fair share of NFL mock drafts.
Purdue will want to air the ball out and outgun the opposition. Syracuse will want to feed Tucker in both the running and passing game, and let their defense help them win the field position game. It is a fascinating clash of styles in what should shape out to be one of the better games in the 12:00pm slot. Expecting some scores, but the team with the better defense to pull out on top.
Pick: Syracuse -1
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