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Welcome back, RotoBallers! I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Wednesday, June 1, 2022.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these articles, I am 15-26-2 overall on the season, down 4.37 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. But it's now June and now I am opening things up a bit and trying to make more than just two bets a day. If I start losing bankroll, I will slow down, but this is the time to put some volume in if you can find the value.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Astros @ Athletics
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: HOU -200
HOU: Justin Verlander| OAK: Cole Irvin
I have been wrong about this series over and over again, but today I think I will get it right. The seven run total seems too low for this game. Cole Irvin does have a 3.15 ERA but his xFIP is 4.15, with a career 4.75 xFIP. His strikeout rate is low, just 15.9%, and he has a barrel rate this year of 11.7% -- which would be a career-high.
Justin Verlander is the better pitcher of course, but he isn't exactly unhittable. His 25.5% strikeout rate is the lowest it has been since 2015. His 3.45 xFIP is the highest it has been since 2017. That's not to say that these numbers are not good, they are still great numbers to have... They are just not numbers we are accustomed to Justin Verlander having, but he is also 39 years old now.
Oakland's bullpen is average with a 3.84 ERA while Houston has the best bullpen ERA at 2.40. This is a game I can see Houston scoring five or more runs in. If Oakland can score a couple of runs, this game has a great shot at going over.
Pick: OVER 7 runs (-110), BetMGM Sportsbook, 0.5 unit
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Royals @ Guardians
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CLE -139
KC: Brad Keller| CLE: Konnor Pilkington
We have the next game in this series between these divisional opponents. Brad Keller is out here having a respectable season, against the odds. Although his strikeout rate is just 14.2%, his xFIP is 4.29. Pilkington has a 4.41 xFIP, a solid strikeout rate of 26.3% but his issue are walks with a 14% walk rate. As weird as it may feel saying this, the Royals have the edge with Keller on the mound today.
Bullpen-wise, the Guardians have the fifth-lowest bullpen ERA while Kansas City has the second-highest bullpen ERA.
With both starting pitchers not being great and with Kansas City having the bad bullpen, why am I choosing the under? It's because these offenses aren't good. Kansas City has scored the fifth-fewest runs in the league. They have the 10th lowest on-base percentage, the sixth-lowest ISO, and the fourth-fewest home runs. On the other side, Cleveland has scored the 17th most runs, has the 17th highest on-base percentage, and the 19th highest ISO.
I like this game going under 8.5 runs and Kansas City having the lead in the first five innings with the better starting pitcher than Cleveland.
Pick: UNDER 8.5 runs (+100), DraftKings Sportsbook, 0.5 units; Royals F5 Moneyline (+120), DraftKings Sportsbook, 0.5 units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mariners @ Orioles
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: SEA -147
SEA: Robbie Ray | BAL: Kyle Bradish
Despite the surface stats, this starting pitching matchup is closer than you think. Robbie Ray has a 3.62 xFIP, 27.1% strikeout rate, and is allowing 1.48 HR/9. Bradish, despite the 7.31 ERA, has a 3.86 xFIP, 23.6% strikeout rate, and is allowing 2.22 HR/9. There's a small edge to Ray but not as large as a casual fan might think.
From the bullpens, Baltimore has the sixth-best bullpen ERA while Seattle's is the 21st best bullpen ERA. If Baltimore can get a lead, they have a great chance of outplaying Seattle down the stretch of the game.
Offensively, Baltimore has scored the 23rd most runs, has the 24th-highest ISO, and the 22nd-highest on-base percentage. Seattle has scored the 22nd most runs, has the 15th highest ISO, and the ninth-highest on-base percentage. Seattle is getting on base more, has a little bit more pop, but having a difficult time driving in runs more consistently.
This game is close to a coin flip for me, yet Baltimore is given a 42% win probability. That feels too low and I do not mind splashing on the Baltimore Moneyline tonight.
Pick: Baltimore Moneyline (+137), WynnBet Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Blue Jays
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: TOR -125
CHW: Michael Kopech | TOR: Hyun Jin Ryu
Michael Kopech is a mirage. His 1.29 ERA makes one think "oh wow, nice season" but his metrics tell a different story. His xFIP is 4.60 this year as his walk rate is a high 11.8%. Toronto is close to league average in walk rate this season. Hyun Jin Ryu is struggling with a 5.48 ERA and a 4.34 xFIP. Ryu isn't striking anyone out (12.4% strikeout rate), and allowing more contact will open you up for runs to be scored on you.
Bullpen-wise these teams are also pretty close as the White Sox have a 4.19 ERA while the Blue Jays have a 3.97 ERA.
This is a game where I see runs being scored. Both teams were supposed to have elite offenses this year and Chicago has scored the third-fewest runs this season while Toronto has scored the seventh-fewest runs. Kopech is due for some regression, both offenses should be playing better than this.
Pick: White Sox Moneyline (+116), FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5 units; OVER 8.5 runs (-105), BetMGM Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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