RADIO
There are few games that are as perfect as advertised, but that was the case with the Marlins and Phillies yesterday. Between Sandy Alcantara and Aaron Nola, the two aces each pitched over seven innings, only allowing two earned runs each. I'm a sucker for dominant pitching, and when you factor the walk-off finish, this truly was a special game. Let's hope for more of that today!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, June 9th, 2022, for the 16-game 1:10 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. Today features a double-header and a lot of games, leading to some notable value opportunities being on the table. What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: ARI -123
CIN: Tyler Mahle | ARI: Zach Davies
In search for the best game of the day, we aren't exactly starting at the top of the barrel in terms of the quality of teams. Hey, all games count the same!
Don't look now, but Reds starter Tyler Mahle is back to being the pitcher that teams ought to covet at the trade deadline. For the season, the 27-year-old possesses a 3.96 skill interactive ERA (SIERA) and 15.3% K-BB, but he has been exceptional (3.15 SIERA, 22.4% K-BB) in his last three starts, and is overall progressing in terms of missing bats as the season has gone on. It also helps that his home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB) on the road is less than half of what is is at home, with Chase Field limiting home runs at the fifth-highest rate, per Baseball Savant. A talented pitcher who misses bats and doesn't have to deal with what historically has been his main issue? Sign me up!
On the other hand, the underlying numbers for Zach Davies (10.8% K-BB) aren't specifically promising, and they represent a peak season for him compared to years past. He is relying on a .264 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) allowed and other contact-quality suppression skills he has not demonstrated in the past, and you'd figure it's only a matter of time before those normalize. These two offenses had an identical 90 weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) entering Monday, while Cincinnati has a significant pitching edge here. With that in mind, how are they not the favorites here? This is the type of value that doesn't come around often.
Pick: Cincinnati ML (-127), WynnBet Sportsbook
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Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: ATL -169
ATL: Max Fried | WSH: Jackson Tetreault
How about those Braves. A few weeks ago, the defending champion's playoff hopes seemed to be on thin ice. Now, not so much. Atlanta has won twelve straight games, and, as a result, now have an 83.7% chance of making the postseason, per Fangraphs' playoff odds. While it can be risky to expect such a streak to continue, it's hard to pass them up.
Why? Well, it's Max Fried day! The ability to run a 19% K-BB while inducing a ground ball on over 50% of your batted balls isn't common, yet Fried is in a rare mold. We've seen him cut down on his fastballs while introducing a very impressive changeup (37% whiff, .211 xWOBA allowed) to his pitch mix. No team has hit a ground ball on a higher rate of their batted balls than the Nationals, while they rank in the bottom-ten in wRC+ against lefties this season. In other words, expect Fried to continue to shine.
On the other side, Jackson Tetreault, a 26-year-old with a projected ERA of 5.49 from Steamer projections and a 4.65 xFIP in Triple-A this season, now has to face a red-hot offense that has hit for the most power (.204 isolated power/ISO) of any team over the past 30 days. Behind him? The worst defense in terms of outs above average (OAA), as well as a below-average bullpen based on both SIERA and xFIP; this is significant against a Braves bullpen that has the best SIERA of all of baseball. Really, what facet of play is Washington remotely close to Atlanta in right now? It's time to empty the floodgates!
Pick: Atlanta Run Line (-110), DraftKings Sportsbook
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St.Louis Cardinals
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: STL -161
PIT: JT Brubaker | STL: Matthew Liberatore
Enough with picking a side, am I right? Let's mix it up with a total here. As they play a double-header today, the Cardinals will look to try to establish themselves as the top team in the NL Central, which should work against a Pirates team that is in the bottom three in run differential (-93). Wait, we're not worried about the money line or run line!
That's right; it's the under that is very appealing here, as is the case with most Cardinals games. After all, according to Baseball Savant, Busch Stadium is the third-most pitcher-friendly ballpark in all of baseball, while the Cardinals are a top-ten defense in OAA with a very strong infield consisting of Tommy Edman, Nolan Arenado, and Paul Goldschmidt. It's been a rough going for starter Matthew Liberatore since being called up to the majors, but he's still a well-regarded prospect facing the fifth-worst offense in wRC+ versus lefties. Given everything working in his favor, it's going to be very hard for him not to succeed here.
Plus, despite being in first place in the NL Central, the Cardinals only rank 13th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Sans two rough starts to begin the season, Pirates starter JT Brubaker (3.92 SIERA, 15% K-BB) has been a very productive pitcher this season, while his notable home run problem is mitigated based on the ballpark he's pitching in and the fact that the Cardinals have the third-lowest team barrel rate (6.1%) this season. He should provide Pittsburgh with length here, and if the expected winning team isn't going to blow up for a lot of runs, it's hard for a total so large to go over. Particularly in the current run environment, the strong play is the under here.
Pick: Pittsburgh St.Louis Under 9.5 (-105), FanDuel Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more betting/fantasy content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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