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Will we see another Aaron Judge home run today? At this point, that almost feels like it should be the expectation. He's legitimately on pace to exceed 60 home runs this season, which is quite the way to perform in a contract year. It's astonishing how well he, as well as the entire Yankee team, has played and there are no signs of that changing.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, June 16th, 2022, for the 10-game 1:35 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. Although there are only ten games, there is a substantial amount of value to take advantage of. What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
Bets not covered to consider:
- Padres Cubs Under 9.5 Runs (-108)
- Phillies Nationals Under 9.5 Runs (-106)
- Milwaukee Moneyline (+110) at Mets
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rangers @ Tigers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: TEX -127
TEX: Martin Perez | DET: Beau Brieske
Coming into this season, these two teams were easy to place in similar buckets. After several rebuilding years, each team was aggressive on the free agent and trade market, looking to bolster their roster in hopes of competing right away. So far, it's been a mixed bag, but as things stand, the gap between these two teams has widened significantly.
Since the start of May, the Rangers have a winning record (22-19) with a positive run differential, and are starting to get returns on their major free agent acquisitions, including the red hot Marcus Semien. In fact, over the past 30 days, they have been a top-ten offense in terms of weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+), while also ranking in the top ten in isolated power (ISO), barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Simply put, there are hitting the ball extremely well, and are an offense to fear right now.
That's not great news for Tigers starter Beau Brieske, who has struggled in his first nine MLB starts with a 4.85 skill interactive ERA (SIERA), just a 15.3% strikeout rate, and the inability to induce ground balls leading to some projected home run issues. On the other hand, Rangers starter Martin Perez has leaned on his sinker to induce a lot of ground balls (54.1%), leading to legitimate home run suppression, while his need to induce chases works well against the team with the highest chase rate in baseball.
Speaking of said offense, Detroit has the lowest wRC+ in the league, is scoring the fewest amount of runs in the MLB, and is hitting for the least amount of power. If that isn't the definition of an offense to fade, I don't know what is. These two teams are clearly heading in completely different trajectories, and there is no reason not to expect that to be the case today. Rangers usually ride horses, but today they'll ride a tiger to victory!
Pick: Texas ML (-127), FanDuel Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Angels @ Mariners
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: LAA -120
LAA: Shohei Ohtani | SEA: George Kirby
Happy Shohei day, everyone! Last week, we were counting on Shohei Ohtani to help break the Angels out of their losing streak, and we're going right back to the well again.
After all, how could you not trust Ohtani? Whether it's his 2.77 SIERA, 31.7% strikeout rate, 25.9% K-BB, 15.4% swinging-strike rate, or 31.5% called-strike + whiff rate (CSW%), it's hard to not find a relevant statistic where Ohtani isn't thriving in this season. Notably, his fastball velocity (98.3 MPH) has been at least two ticks higher than where he sat last season (95.6 MPH) in three of his past four outings, while he is commanding in the zone (5.8% BB) better than ever. Right now, you want to be siding with him.
Even though it's been a rough go for the Angels as of late, they're still a top-ten offense in wRC+ against right-handed hitters, and that's despite being without Taylor Ward and Anthony Rendon for a considerable amount of time. Mariners young starter George Kirby has no issues limiting walks (2.6% BB), but he still isn't missing bats (10.3% swinging-strike rate, 22% whiff) at a very high level, and it's possible his propensity to pound the zone too much is playing a role in some home run suppression issues, especially for someone allowing a fly ball on 31.3% of the batted balls against him. The Angels as a team have the fourth-highest barrel rate this season, and they may be able to outslug their way to a victory here.
What all of that comes down to this: these two offenses are equal at best from a production standpoint, but Ohtani gives Los Angeles a notable pitching edge, even if Kirby has impressed. This is likely to be a very low-scoring game, and with how dominant Ohtani has been, you shouldn't be going against him. Light up the Halo here!
Pick: Angels ML (-120), FanDuel Sportsbook
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Padres @ Cubs
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: SD -164
SD: Joe Musgrove | CHC: Matt Swarmer
Here come the Padres! Even without Fernando Tatis Jr., the Padres keep winning; they have been victorious in ten of their past 13 games, and now have a chance to go for a four-game series sweep in Chicago today. Not only should they accomplish that feat, but they should do so with ease.
In case you haven't heard, Joe Musgrove is pretty good at baseball. The 29-year-old has been the fifth-most valuable pitcher in all of baseball per Fangraphs, thriving in all facets with a 19.9% K-BB and 3.28 SIERA. By virtue of throwing six pitches, he's extremely bullet-proof; he has yet allow more than two earned runs in any start this season. Playing behind the best defense in baseball based on Outs Above Average (OAA), his elite season in terms of run suppression should continue.
Meanwhile, San Diego's bats are starting to wake up and they're in line for a strong day. Although Matt Swarmer has put together strong underlying numbers (17.6% K-BB, 3.88 SIERA), he also had a massive issue allowing home runs. Starting in 2019, the 28-year-old allowed a very high 1.81 HR/9, with a projected 1.92 HR/9 and 5.36 ERA from Fangraphs Depth Charts projections. There is nothing in his underlying pitch data (93.6 stuff+, 97.4 pitching+, per Eno Sarris) to suggest a high-end performance is coming, which is a problem for a Cubs team that will have problems scoring runs against Musgrove.
Given the massive gap in talent, as well as the lopsided pitching matchup, San Diego's run line almost feels too good to be true. Just as you start to trust the Padres, something bad happens, but that can take place another time. Rather, the Swinging Friars ought to vault themselves into first place in the NL West with a series sweep in the Windy City.
Pick: San Diego Run Line (-111), FanDuel Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more betting/fantasy content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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