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Days like yesterday make me remember how much we should all enjoy the game's top pitchers. Between Corbin Burnes, Gerrit Cole, Shane McClanahan, Logan Webb, Max Fried, and Yu Darvish, there were a lot of dominant pitching performances on display on Monday, and it was truly a joy to watch. Sadly, they can't pitch every day, but that just opens up the floor for other pitchers!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Tuesday, June 21st, 2022, for the 16-game 6:40 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. With a full slate of games, there are some notable value opportunities out there, particularly in some key matchups. What sides/totals should you have your eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cardinals @ Brewers
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: MIL -120
STL: Jack Flaherty | MIL: Chi Chi Gonzalez
It's obviously still June, but this is still a very important series. With these two teams separated by just one game in the NL Central, this is likely a division race that is going to come down to the wire, making every game between these two teams significant.
It's great to see Jack Flaherty back in action! The Cardinals starter is aiming for 75 pitches in his second outing of the year, and while he's still working his way back into action, he's still a pitcher with a career 3.75 skill interactive ERA (SIERA) and 20.2% K-BB. Plus, the Brewers for the season have been a below-average offense with the 18th-best weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+), and have the sixth-worst wRC+ over the past 30 days. Even if this game needs to be patched up a bit behind him, this isn't an offense to fear right now.
This season has been a difficult for Milwaukee in terms of pitching injuries, as Aaron Ashby now joins Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta on the injured list. Consequently, it will likely be Chi Chi Gonzalez who gets the ball today, which isn't a great scenario for the Brewers considering he comes with a career 5.46 SIERA and 3.9% K-BB. Thus, St.Louis possesses the pitching advantage and has the much better performing offense (7th in wRC+). When that's true for a team that is plus-money to be victorious, that's very enticing. As always in St.Louis, we're hoping for some devil magic here!
Pick: St. Louis ML (+105) Ceasars Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Rangers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: TEX -115
PHI: Kyle Gibson | TEX: Martin Perez
Here come the Phillies! Philadelphia has won 15 of their past 18 games, and is right back in the thick of the NL postseason race. We expect that to continue here.
In many ways, it's been a career year for Phillies starter Kyle Gibson, who has a career-best 3.80 SIERA and also has missed more bats (12.3% swinging-strike rate) this season. Combine that with his ability to induce ground balls (51.2% GB), limit walks (6.8% BB), and he has a very stable profile. The Rangers for the season rank 23rd in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and also have the fourth-lowest on-base percentage this year. Suffice to say, this probably isn't the offense that gives Gibson fits.
It's been a remarkable season for Rangers starter Martin Perez, who is tied for sixth-best wins above replacement this season, per Fangraphs. At the same time, that's mainly due to an astronomically low 0.22 HR/9 and 2.7% home run/fly ball rate, which are bound to regress negatively. The Phillies ave the sixth-best wRC+ against lefties this season, and perhaps that regression comes against the offense who has the third-best isolated power (ISO) against southpaws. Similarly to the Cardinals pick, you can get the much better offense with at least a draw on the pitching side of things as an underdog. When the better team isn't being priced as such, how could you not jump on that opportunity?
Pick: Philadelphia ML (+102), FanDuel Sportsbook
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Blue Jays @ White Sox
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: TOR -133
TOR: Kevin Gausman | CHW: Dylan Cease
After yesterday's dominant pitching performances, what does today have in store? If there's going to be a pitcher's duel, it's coming from this game, although that wouldn't be clear by the total.
It's been a bit rough for Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman as of late. At the end of the day though, the 31-year-old is still the most valuable pitcher based on Fangraphs' wins above replacement and he has dominated with a 3.06 SIERA and 16% swinging-strike rate this season. No pitcher induces chances outside the zone (43.2%) more than him, and he now gets to face a White Sox offense with the second highest outside-zone swing rate this season. You can't script it better than that!
Now, perhaps we'd be worried if the South Siders possesses an elite lineup, but as a right-handed heavy lineup, they have the sixth-worst wRC+ against righties this season. Add in they're without Yasmani Grandal and Yoan Moncada, and it isn't looking great for their offense. If they're going to have a chance in this game, it's going to come through starter Dylan Cease, who does have to tame a very potent Blue Jays offense. That being said, with a 3.30 SIERA and 32.9% strikeout rate, he is one of the better pitchers in baseball, and ought to be trusted as such.
Both of these starters should give their teams a lot of length, to the point that whatever faults they may have in their bullpen (they're about average in SIERA) wouldn't matter at all. Regardless, nine runs is an absurd amount in a game featuring two high-end pitchers, especially when one of the offenses has been a bottom-ten unit for the season. It's time for Gausman to get back on track, while Cease continues to miss bats; if you like pitching, this is the game, and the under, for you.
Pick: Blue Jays White Sox Under 9 Runs (-118), Unibet Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more betting/fantasy content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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