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It's Wednesday, July 6th and like most Wednesday slates, we have a mix of day and night games on the slate. I personally think today there is better action in the early games than in the late games but I also know that many people are at work and can't really read or make a bet until the evening. So for today, I am going to provide a larger amount of picks to encompass both the day and night games. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Wednesday, July 6th, 2022.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rays @ Red Sox
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: BOS -125
TB: Corey Kluber | BOS: Brayan Bello
In Boston, we have the debut of an up-and-coming prospect Brayan Bello. Bello has a 34.4% strikeout rate and a 10% walk rate in Triple-A this year. He has electric stuff, however, his command can be an issue as indicated by the high walk rate. Fortunately for Bello, Tampa Bay is 22nd in walk rate, 23rd in OBP, and 22nd in ISO. This is a bottom-third offense in the league, not a bad offense to make your major league debut against. On the other side, Kluber is pitching OK this year. Kluber has a 3.95 xFIP, a 21.3% strikeout rate, and a 4.1% walk rate.
This game's run total is a little too high for me. Bellos has good stuff and is facing a bad offense. Kluber is average to slightly above average nowadays, and both teams have solid bullpens. Tampa Bay has a bad offense. Where are these 10 runs coming from? The line should be at 8.5 or 9.0 in my opinion, and I like the under.
Pick: UNDER 9.5 Runs (-120), BetMGM Sportsbook 0.5 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rockies @ Dodgers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: LAD -300
COL: Jose Urena | LAD: Mitch White
For the last game of the day, we have a huge favorite on the board with the Dodgers as -300 favorites tonight against the Rockies. Do you know how in baseball they say every team wins one-third of their games, loses one-third of their games, and the other one-third makes or breaks the season? Well if you didn't know, people say that. Anyways, -300 odds are an implied 75% chance of winning, which is extremely high in a high-variance game like baseball.
There's no need for crazy analysis here. Mitch White has a 3.94 xFIP, 22.8% strikeout rate, and a 7.6% walk rate. Away from home, the Rockies have a .103 ISO, .297 OBP, and average 3.0 runs scored per game. You could make an argument that they are the worst team in baseball offensively when they are not playing in Coors Field. The Tigers have scored the fewest runs in baseball and average 3.1 runs per game. Jose Urena has a career 4.87 xFIP. The Dodgers have one of the best offenses in the league. Behind Urena, the Rockies have one of the worst bullpens as well with a 4.74 bullpen ERA and 4.34 bullpen xFIP.
I like the over here and think the Dodgers can get to 10 runs by themselves here. They face a horrible starting pitcher, one of the worst bullpens in the game. The weather will be nice and the wind is forecasted to be blowing out.
Pick: OVER 9 Runs (-120), DraftKings/BetMGM/Caesar's Sportsbook 0.5 units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Tigers
O/U: 8| Moneyline: CLE -180
CLE: Shane Bieber | DET: Michael Pineda
Shane Bieber and Michael Pineda face off this afternoon in Detroit. Bieber is having an excellent season with a 3.22 xFIP, but his strikeout numbers are down to a 25.3% strikeout rate, his second-lowest rate in a single season of his career. He is also allowing a career-best 0.69 HR/9. For Pineda, he is not having a great season. he has a 4.59 xFIP, a strikeout rate of just 13.8% (a career-low), and a hard-hit rate of 45.6%.
Detroit has a bad offense and is facing a good pitcher. Cleveland is facing a bad pitcher but in the last two weeks, their offense has not been good. In that span, Cleveland is 22nd in runs scored, 26th in OBP, and 27th in ISO. Even if Cleveland gets to Pineda today, Detroit has the third-best bullpen ERA at 3.02. Their xFIP is 16th so they may be due for some regression but Detroit does not have a bad bullpen.
This is a game I could see being low-scoring and one that I will take the under on today.
Pick: UNDER 8 runs (-110), BetMGM Sportsbook 0.5 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Twins @ White Sox
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CHW -115
MIN: Joe Ryan | CHW: Lance Lynn
I have been betting on this series every day and I am going back to it today as well. Lance Lynn is a better pitcher than Joe Ryan, although prior to Lynn's start against San Francisco on July 1st, I would say these pitchers are pretty similar as far as allowing runs go. Joe Ryan has a 4.58 xFIP but the White Sox are just not a good offense: 24th in runs scored, 19th in OBP, and 28th in ISO. Ryan is just erratic. He will have some starts where pitches six-seven innings, strikes out six-seven batters and gives up no runs. Then he will have these blow-up type starts where he gives up three-four runs. Ryan is capable of having a good start, matching or surpassing Lynn. Lynn has really had just one good start out of four and it is difficult to know if he is turning the corner or if it was just a good start.
I know the Twins have a better offense and a better bullpen than Chicago. The Twins are 11th in bullpen xFIP while Chicago is 13th. Offensively, the Twins are 10th in runs scored, 7th in OBP, and 8th in ISO. This offense got to Michael Kopech last night and they can get to Lynn today. I like Minnesota to complete the sweep on the South Side.
Pick: Twins Moneyline (-102), FanDuel Sportsbook 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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